Skip to comments.Nate Silver: 80% chance Super Bowl will be won by 1 of these 5 teams
Posted on 12/03/2015 9:40:14 PM PST by NKP_Vet
After 12 weeks of the NFL season, the New England Patriots are still the heavy favorite to win the Super Bowl. Using Nate Silver's "2015 NFL Predictions," a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.
Heading into Week 13, the New England Patriots are still the favorite with a 28% chance to win the Super Bowl, down from 33% a week ago. The Carolina Panthers (20%) are the favorite in the NFC.
In fact, according to Silver's model, there is an 80% chance the Super Bowl will be won by one of the five teams:
New England Patriots, 28% Carolina Panthers, 20% Arizona Cardinals, 13% Denver Broncos, 10% Cincinnati Bengals, 9% The Green Bay Packers (5%) are the only other team with more than a 3% chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February.
At the other end of the spectrum, ten teams can be scratched off as playoff contenders with less than a 5% chance of grabbing one of the 12 playoff spots. Those teams are the Chargers, Browns, Titans, 49ers, Ravens, Raiders, Rams, Saints, Jaguars, and Dolphins.
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But nobody died and made me Nostradamus.
Lost my interest in football after all the crap about Brady, Manziel, Romo, Kapernauk the punk and on and on. Concusions and those rabid lefist, stupid announcers, enough is enough.
It can’t be the Cardinals vs. Panthers except in the NFC Championship game. :-)
It’d be nice seeing the Panthers crush the cheatin’ Patsies in the Super Bowl!
I hope the America’s Team wins again. Go Patriots!!! What a great name for these deserved players. It is really cool that they are the only team with a conservative name.
When a woman reporter starts talking during a football game, my brain shifts into neutral, tunes her out and changes cranial channels til she is gone.
And there’s a 50% chance it’ll be the Seahawks!
He said Brazil would win the last world cup, whereas most of the international soccer community knew the lineup, coaching staff, personalities, and chemistry were not present to enable a win. He looked at the host country, Brazil, and how many prior world cups Brazil had won, and simply declared Brazil the predicted winner.
Another example, how does a model account for a 27-point rally in the second half and a 61 yard hail Mary with 0:00 left on clock?
Any team who can crush the Deflatriots will make me happy. Last weekend proved it can be done. Hopefully other teams will step up as well. Panthers have a good chance. Thanks Broncos! It was sweet.
Carolina won’t make the Super Bowl, they are posers. NE, Denver, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are all better teams than everyone in the NFC except for Arizona. Arizona though, is one injury away from disaster with a fragile but fantastic Carson Palmer.
America’s Team refers to the Dallas Cowboys. It’s cute that you want to rebrand the Patriots that, but like it or not, that descriptor belongs to Dallas.....no matter how awful their current season is.
There is one female reporter on KFI that is a case in point. Her delivery is unprofessional, lackadaisical, almost insulting as if to say “why are you wasting my time while I am on my hammock. “ Her nasality drives me nuts, her phraseology is abstruse, and her choice of words is maddening, childish. Morata retired, a true professional and he is missed. This pathetic excuse for an announcer is a disgrace to the profession and the station. Her name: Aaron , she cannot say her last name to understand it considering her delivery and voice. What a joke, along with the sex-obsessed Handel, I switched channels.
Same here. The NFL can go to hell. I enjoy College football now.
I hope the Americaâs Team wins again. Go Patriots!!!
I think “America’s Team” is the Cowboys unless I missed the change.
“Carolina wonât make the Super Bowl, they are posers”
I have been saying, “paper tigers” but “posers” works, too. ;-)
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