Posted on 03/09/2016 9:12:00 PM PST by Windflier
I am from California, I am about to retire however, but I have been in IT (Information Technology) here for 38 years straight and yes I have been through several earthquakes (ha ha).
Anyway, I can tell you right now, Trump is VERY popular with (1) IT employees, (2) white males. I also know he i very popular with blue collar here. There are also blacks who, if Republican, they support Trump. We are not so religious here in the sense of Bible thumpers, the folks I know of here are turned off by too much of a religious aura to a campaign so they are not keen on Cruz. However, those that I know who ARE Bible thumpers, oddly here in California they are for Rubio. That one I just don’t get, but it is a fact here in California.
I know, the old “birds of a feather stick together” ideation - but still, I STRONGLY suspect that Trump is going to be NUMBER ONE here in California. Cruz will not do well here, Rubio (if he is even in the race by then) will do better but Kasich is also popular.
Last poll in Cali Jan 3rd. Cruz 25 Trump 23 Rubio 18
Notice, the polls only forecast gives Trump a 75% chance of winning and Rubio a 12% chance.
But the Polls-plus Forecast has Trump at 57% chance to Rubio 29% chance.
I think this is flawed and skewed towards Rubio doing better than he will. After this past week Rubio is seriously damaged. The poll and the polls-plus have Cruz at 9% and 10% chance.
I think those are significantly low and as has been the case fo some time, are underestimating Cruz who could pull out more like a 20% chance especially considering downstate.
At this point Trump is still around a plus 10 or so. Negative ads are pounding non stop 24/7 but his support remains strong.
Thanks for the links and post.
No problem. I’m in the bi-state area (Missouri/Illinois) and I can tell you that this is Trump country on the Missouri side.
I think the celebrity factor will work in Trump’s favor. I suspect Cruz’s decision to go all in on religious conservatives will hurt him.
I never think it is smart to tout your religious standing to attract support. Once Ted had done it I think Trump was more or less obligated to at least make a pretense.
If you’re a Christian, people will know. You don’t have to hold Bibles or address evangelicals.
Basing your strategy on the Bible Belt performance, is risky, and now we know why.
Once you fail to get it, there is no fall-back position. You look like a misguided failure and it’s hard to dispel that IMO.
I think it’s part of why Ted is listing bad to port right now.
He didn’t get the evangelicals, and of course all the stupid people went to Trump. What did that leave Ted? Oh yes, those people who attended heavily Leftist universities where they tout men like him as good leaders. Uh huh...
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