The Dutch Elections

Gates of Vienna ^ | 8 Mar, 2017 | Baron Bodissey and H. Numan

[MtnClimber]

A week from today The Netherlands goes to the polls for a general election, and the big question is how well Geert Wilders and the PVV will do. Our Dutch correspondent H. Numan sends this handy roundup of election-related information to help non-Dutch readers get a handle on the situation.

By H. Numan

On the 15th of March the Dutch will vote. The national elections are very much in the international news. The big questions are: will the PVV win? What will happen if they do?

Journalists from all over the world flock to The Netherlands to interview Wilders and to report about the elections in a couple of days. The Dutch media are blasting at Wilders with both barrels. Not only the media do what they can to avert the inevitable. So do the polls.

Let’s start here: How do you poll?, Theoretically you want to ask non-biased questions of as many people as possible all over the country, from all age and income groups. Suppose you hold a poll in a small poor rural village in Alabama: you’d get a very different outcome compared to polling the same number of people in a yuppie area of New York or Los Angeles.

The biggest problem with public opinion polls is transparency. You can read the result, but not how they got them. Especially regular political polls are, in my opinion, extremely unreliable. It’s way too easy to rig the results as desired.

If you look at the Dutch opinion pollers, I regret to say you can only find similar ilk in North Korea. The public of course changes its mind. Nothing is written in stone. But most people change their opinions for sound reasons. Not because it’s raining, or Wilders wears the wrong color of necktie.

[MtnClimber]

I will be watching. Gert is a real fighter for freedom.

[PapaBear3625]

The biggest problem with public opinion polls is transparency.

The biggest problems with public opinion polling, are the assumptions that you actually get a true sample, and that people will actually say what they really think.

In an environment where people can be ostracized, fired, or even jailed for having "incorrect" opinions, you get a major reluctance of some people to talk to strangers calling up to ask their opinions.

Then there are people like me, who respond to automated polls by telling them I'm a black, female Democrat for Trump. Once, I was even able to indicate that I was a lesbian.

[Dick Bachert]

TOPICS FOR TODAY: A veritable pedantic & pragmatic philosophical potpourri pertaining to the political and personal physical peril in which we presently PHind ourselves. (OK, so I took some alliterative license! EXCUUSE ME!!)

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[BeadCounter]

I’m a fan of Geert, I heard fewer appearances brought him down in the polls some. I hope for the best for him. Also, Le Pen apparently is not polling as good now either. If those folks lack the sense to elect someone who cares about their interests, they can’t be helped.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/dutch-election-2017-geert-wilders/