The odds of a 2008-like stock-market meltdown are low: There's Buying opportunities for those with a 12-month horizon

Marketwatch ^ | 03/07/2020 | By Simon Maierhofer

[The_Media_never_lie]

It wasn’t blindness. Our politicians sold us out. It was greed.

[reed13k]

That’s close to what I’m projecting as well. I’ve bought into some call options spread from a start of April through Sept depending on which had the better value. They bounced around during the week and I put in some more when things dropped each time.

I’m figuring it’ll be bouncy again next week and then things will steady out and start to recover as better information on the situation comes out. I’ve avoided transport so far and focused on energy, SPY, & QQQ. I did a play AAAPL Friday of last week, but just the one and sold on Monday for a big gain. I think transport will have the longest road to recovery so I’ve held off on those expecting a deeper bottom.

I have a bunch of covered calls that come due this month that I expect will all work to my advantage, so now I just watch for additional dips and sprinkle in as they occur.

[Bon mots]

I'm thinking that the bottom will fall out of this market in the coming week(s).

What is the best 'anti-fragile' investment for the little guy?

I see this whole Corona Virus as a black swan event and people still don't realize it due to normalcy bias.

We can already see that supply lines are broken, truckers are suffering, cruise lines will never rebound to the levels they enjoyed before this - and they had 110 new cruise ships under construction! Airlines and the hospitality industry is getting clobbered, conventions and concerts are being cancelled... the effect will not be small.

So for an investment to be anti-fragile, it should go up when the market goes down. Here are some that I know of:

The image above shows the three types of investments (or speculations) that you can hold.
Carnival Line Cruises was a very FRAGILE investment - I had wanted to short it but my trading account wouldn't let me. Then it lost 50%.

The ROBUST investment would have been gold which didn't move much in either direction.

The others were Anti-Fragile.

[BobL]

“It wasn’t blindness. Our politicians sold us out. It was greed.”

Can’t argue that.

[BobL]

Sounds like you’re far ahead of me...so I won’t advise. In hindsight, once that Love Boat in Japan showed, that was the end of cruise business, for at least 5 years...yet they’re still running, even now, and still making the news. Almost a death wish!

[6ppc]

Did some bottom feeding last 2 Fridays. Finished up 2% end of trading yesterday. Planning to hold for at least 3-5 years. Airlines and oil stocks looking like good value...have to think about it. So far just bought tech.

[BipolarBob]

Oxys dividend is now 10%, just sayin’.

[6ppc]

We may dip into a recession from this but if gov will stay out of it we’ll bounce back quick. Expect volatility until election...after Trump win we’ll be knocking on 30k dow by end of year.

[virgil]

A 2008 like catastrophe is what democrats are praying to Gaia for, if not out right promoting.

[CapnJack]

just dropped another $500 in my 5 year old’s 529 fund last week.

Will do the same next paycheck.

Time to buy!

[shanover]

We will see what Corona says in Spring.

[minnesota_bound]

AMD had great meeting with wall street and big investors last Thursday. After hours the stock was up $2.79 !

But the 35 tech stocks I look at were all red on Friday. AMD too. It did at the very end go green while the others did not. Hope it goes up up up next week.

That darn coronavirus!!

[Maine Mariner]

I am thinking the same thing.

On October 22, 1987 the stock market declined by about 20%.
My late father, who was 76 at the time looked at me the next day and asked if we were going to start buying-this from a man who lost his life savings in the early 1930’s when the banks closed.

It was clear that at least some stocks were trading at prices that were very low by any standard-price per share was about equal to cash on the balalance sheet per share.
We invested and within a year made 20 to 30% on all of our investments.

Some blue chip energy companies are returning 5% or so just on dividend/share price.