Posted on 03/24/2020 10:27:45 AM PDT by dalight
We are all freepers. Family. Sometimes family “debates” can get heated.
I agree.. it is still fluid.. but I have watch this for a few days and now I am kind of getting a feel for their updating. But, the testing is driving what I call surges.. as new testing comes on line.. This is what happened last week as Drive through testing got in place in many locations in the hardest hit cities last Friday which drove a spike of results into the numbers.
The huge hole in understanding this is caused by the lack of good old random sample population testing to get a percent penetration number and a growth rate number that is population based rather than symptom based.
Interesting thing. Note above the third chart, “US Cases”. This chart isn’t deaths but “cases” which is just “all positive tests”. As we started to test more quickly one would expect that curve to deviate due to artifact if the artifact was large. It doesn’t seem to have. Cases may not be as bad of an indicator as we thought even though the # are a fraction of the “real” numbers.
Follow the # new deaths. Death is a pretty hard data point.
The most illegal and world traveling contagious Chinese are in NYC duh!
It may not. These numbers may be so huge the bias could be damn near trivial. We just don’t know but i see a paper here months down the road. Not written by me, of course. I’ll go back to sipping Boubon.
Sad. Very difficult to watch. I fear many new yorkers will flee the city to other outlying areas and create new centers of infection..
That's right. To get an idea of the impact of NYC you really need to consider NJ and parts of CT as well. The NJ case load is highly influenced by northern NJ, which is basically suburban NYC. Many people also commute to NYC from CT.
Very good post.....
Trump may have to bring in the 82nd Airborne to quarantine hot spots. Which raises an interesting question. Would America accept that and let the rest of the country open up a little? Better than sitting grandma on an ice floe.
This has been a very real likelihood from day 1. Panic quickly sets in when all you see is a death rate that is based on positive tests, when only the most ill are tested.
So now that we are broadening the test base, less sick people are being tested. If we would just have some honest numbers or even estimates of likely infected - including asymptomatic people, we will very likely see the death rate decline even lower than 0.5%. Indeed, when this all washes out in the end, and if honest numbers and calculations are used (as we generally have with the seasonal flu numbers), the outcome will be comparable.
AND - while a segment of those who contract this and get very ill will see long-term damage, we will wonder if it was truly justified to lose 1/4+ of our small businesses and millions of jobs.
In other news at least 38 million cases of seasonal flu and 22,000 deaths.
I assume the judge who lifted the travel ban from Iran which introduced the first patient to NY cannot be sued but some justice would be nice there.
Like Florida.
“WHY ARE WE COMMITTING ECONOMIC SUICIDE and bowing to Nancy Pelosi???”
Because we are a nation of dumb and frightened idiots governed by even dumber politicians.
bookmark
I am sorry, I didn’t notice anything relevant. Perhaps your points could be more on topic.
Snark aside. The situation around the world is not what this post is about. This post is about the fact that the rate of growth in cases in the US is slowing dramatically. And, because the cases that we are seeing right now were baked in the pie so to speak, days ago, if testing were constant, we would see a relative top in the increase of new cases in the next 5 days.
A huge expansion in testing could cloud this effect and delay its recognition but this goose is cooked in US. And its time to start hunting down the stragglers (exposures) and burning them down (prophylactically treating) with hydroxychloroquine + zinc or transfused antibody products.
We should be able to see this bend over in a week if it is real.
Exactly. We can’t do anything about the next 4-5 days but our efforts will kick in Monday or so and the deaths should start decreasing instead of increasing every day. As a whole nation. But that is average for the whole nation. Frankly once we hit that point, where human interaction starts to kick in and the virus can’t display it’s true characteristic it should abate. The individual hot spots will linger and if people do quarantine we really should be good to go. The only thing that made it predictable up to now was it was a new virus running free.
You read about these things all you life but I never thought I would live to actually see it. This is quite an impressive virus. This really is the medical challenge of the century.
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