The Pary's Over

Taki's Magazine ^ | 4 Aprl 2022 | The Z Man

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

--- "Why would it be a problem that the US is the leader of the Free World?"

The question again remains unanswered, except by asking other questions as if a debate tactic. I asked of the massive 3.4 trillion dollar debt: The article's title argues "the party's over." Are you saying it is not?

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

Errata.....mea culpa.

30.4 trillion dollars. A rather sizeable debt.

[Zhang Fei]

[Sounds like our nation is on the deficit side of the column regularly, and not on the earnings side, in spite of your prose “that foreign customers buy in copious amounts.” ]

---

And yet your phone is powered by Android or iOS. There’s a problem in the way they account for trade - the numbers don’t reflect the value added. Deng Xiaoping complained about this - he said that Nike sneakers assembled in China reflected Chinese value-added of perhaps $5, but the entire wholesale value of $30 was added to Chinese export numbers. He might have been steeped in Marxist doubletalk, but he was no dummy.

Here’s one way to look at this - a bulge bracket lawyer runs an enormous trade deficit with her live-in baby-sitter. She buys the baby-sitter’s services, but the baby-sitter buys none of hers. Will a day come that the chickens come home to roost on this persistent trade deficit? Call me skeptical.

[Zhang Fei]

[The question again remains unanswered, except by asking other questions as if a debate tactic. I asked of the massive 3.4 trillion dollar debt: The article’s title argues “the party’s over.” Are you saying it is not?]

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It’s not over, because we’ll grow and inflate our way out of it. Like I said, this guy has no idea what he’s talking about.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

Again the question again remains unanswered, except by asking other questions as if a debate tactic. I asked of the massive 30.4 trillion dollar debt: The article's title argues "the party's over." Are you saying it is not? Leave the parables to another book, please.

[Zhang Fei]

[Again the question again remains unanswered, except by asking other questions as if a debate tactic. I asked of the massive 30.4 trillion dollar debt: The article’s title argues “the party’s over.” Are you saying it is not? Leave the parables to another book, please.]

---

It’s obvious we’re talking past each other. We should pursue other, more productive activities. TGIF.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

--- "...because we’ll grow and inflate our way out of it. "

Thanks for a direct reply. "Inflation is good."

Under Biden as "leader of the Free World" or "leader of the New World Order," it is assured that this nation will not "grow" except thrugh inflation. Though assuredly inflation will continue. Weimar holds a lesson here. Zimbabwe. Argentina. Ah, that free new world.

"For America, There Is No Obvious Path Out of the Red"

Source: https://economics21.org/coronavirus-debt-will-be-long-term-burden

Perpetual Debt: From the British Empire to the American Hegemon

Source: https://mises.org/library/perpetual-debt-british-empire-american-hegemon

[citizen]

You may detest the author but I can not fault the logic. The handwriting is on the wall, writ large.

[Zhang Fei]

[You may detest the author but I can not fault the logic. The handwriting is on the wall, writ large.]

---

What’s your forecast? Zimbabwe? Mad Max? Cannibalism? How long will this take?

[Wissa]

It’s not over, because we’ll grow and inflate our way out of it.

That sounds like the strategy of Bernie Madoff. It works great.... until it doesn't anymore. And then things start happening very fast.

[Zhang Fei]

[That sounds like the strategy of Bernie Madoff. It works great.... until it doesn’t anymore. And then things start happening very fast. ]

---

It’s been happening since the founding of the Republic. If economic growth and inflation as a way of dealing with fiscal debt has stopped working, someone forgot to tell the capital markets.

What’s your forecast? Zimbabwe? Mad Max? Cannibalism? How long will this take?

[Zhang Fei]

[You may detest the author but I can not fault the logic. The handwriting is on the wall, writ large.]

---

I don’t detest the author - I just disagree with the idea that the US pointing a gun at the heads of the rest of the world is what props up the dollar which in turn props up the US economy. It doesn’t pass the laugh test - I can’t complete the thought without wanting to laugh at its absurdity. It’s not that it’s insulting - it’s moronic.

[Wissa]

It’s been happening since the founding of the Republic.

Around 50 years ago we were the largest creditor nation. Then we went off the gold standard and went to a completely fiat currency standard and transformed our country into the largest debtor nation. Prior to that time we were known as probably the greatest industrial nation. Then we chose to move more and more production overseas. Measured by the capital markets, we still looked great though.

I don't believe we can continue expanding our debt levels exponentially indefinitely. It's like blowing up a balloon. There are limits to how long it can be done, even if the balloon has never popped before.

If economic growth and inflation as a way of dealing with fiscal debt has stopped working, someone forgot to tell the capital markets.

People were continuing to hand money to Madoff until the day the curtain was pulled back.

What’s your forecast? Zimbabwe? Mad Max? Cannibalism? How long will this take?

I'm old enough that I'm expecting it most likely won't happen in my lifetime. Wouldn't surprise me if I'm wrong on that though. I'm very doubtful that things won't change drastically in my grandkids lifetimes.

When the situation truly changes, it will probably a Mad Max situation at best. I'd expect the globalist decision-makers to nuke the world and destroy everything possible rather that admit they were wrong.

[citizen]

...we’ll grow and inflate our way out of it.

---

Nonsense.
The comparable inflation of the late 70s was 45 years ago. The economic and real world is a much different reality now and the petrodollar is running on fumes.
To borrow from a 1990 or so term, we are at peak-petrodollar.

[citizen]

My forecast? Frankly, I hope things spiral towards the worsening state on all fronts, save major war, so that upcoming elections everywhere...supposed free elections, that is, might yield other than short-sighted fools/fanatics as leaders.

For my own part, I’m ordering large bags of rice, dried beans, cornmeal canned foods and other basic food stocks.

[citizen]

...the US pointing a gun at the heads of the rest of the world is what props up the dollar

---

There was no gun pointing necessary. Simply the petrodollar system was working as it was designed, then and up to now.

[Zhang Fei]

[Around 50 years ago we were the largest creditor nation. ]

---

And at the founding of the Republic, it inflated the heck out of the currency in order to pay the bills. There’s an expression “not worth a Continental” that’s a relic of the period. Somehow the Republic not only survived, it grew to eclipse the metropole whence it had sprung.

---

[I’m old enough that I’m expecting it most likely won’t happen in my lifetime. Wouldn’t surprise me if I’m wrong on that though. I’m very doubtful that things won’t change drastically in my grandkids lifetimes.

When the situation truly changes, it will probably a Mad Max situation at best. I’d expect the globalist decision-makers to nuke the world and destroy everything possible rather that admit they were wrong.]

---

I think people get a ton of cues about the future from the movies because they don’t have the time or interest to look at historical or contemporary analogues. Any number of countries has gone through serious inflation* without getting into a Mad Max situation. Zimbabwe literally had hundred trillion dollar bills that were worth 40 cents.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/05/06/africa/zimbabwe-trillion-dollar-note/index.html

No Mad Max there. A number of countries have, over time, added, then taken 6 zeroes off their currencies, including Venezuela. No Mad Max there either.

The common denominator with these economies is that they continue doing what they did before, just with more zeroes on their currencies. My point is that inflation is not a good thing, but it doesn’t typically create dystopian movie scenarios.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_currency
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_peso

[Rebelbase]

New money denominations to be printed.

[arthurus]

;>)