Posted on 07/05/2023 3:38:26 AM PDT by spirited irish
My guess is the “popping sounds like a pistol” were micro air bubbles popping at extremely high pressure. Basically, turning the epoxy within the laminate into powder one micro bubble at a time.
However, the photos of the recovered debris show two things: a missing view port and no carbon fiber attached to the hull. If the viewport failed there should be a matching indentation in the opposite cap. Otherwise it could have popped outward from dieseling effect and explosion which would have a pressure far exceeding the outside pressure.
So much fail. We’ll probably never know for certain. Better to just avoid Woke.
- carbon-fiber hull having “very visible signs of delamination and porosity”
- glue for ballast bags coming off [how and where, is not clear in the DW article]
- sealing faces with errant plunge holes [where, is not clear in the DW article]
- O-ring grooves whose design was not standard [where, is not clear in the DW article]
To clarify some things, from the New Yorker article (referred to by the Daily Wire article):
EXCERPT:
"[Rob] McCallum, who was leading an expedition in Papua New Guinea at the time [of the OceanGate Cyclops II "TITAN" loss], knew the outcome almost instantly. 'The report that I got immediately after the event - long before they were overdue - was that the sub was approaching thirty-five hundred metres,' he told me, while the oxygen clock was still ticking. 'It dropped weights” - meaning that the team had aborted the dive - 'then it lost comms, and lost tracking, and an implosion was heard.'"
A little later in the article, Rob McCallum talks about the former "Lula" that Stockton Rush acquired and converted into being the OceanGate "Cyclops I" - and that submersible, is what Rob McCallum describes:
EXCERPTS:
- ["Lula"] had a pressure hull that was the shape of a capsule pill and made of steel, with a large acrylic viewport on one end. (See: https://media.newyorker.com/photos/649df3835ed3eaedd260c30e/master/w_1280,c_limit/Taub-OceanGate-2.jpg)
- designed to go no deeper than five hundred metres
- during the refit ["Lula" > "Cyclops I"], engineers at the University of Washington rigged the Cyclops I to run from a single [Sony] PlayStation 3 controller
- As [OceanGate] planned Cyclops II, [Stockton] Rush reached out to [Rob] McCallum for help.
- [Rob McCallum] eventually visited the [OceanGate] workshop, outside Seattle, where [Rob McCallum] examined the Cyclops I [the former "Lula"]. . . [re the Sony PlayStation 3, Rob McCallum said,] "now you have the hand controller talking to a Wi-Fi unit, which is talking to a black box, which is talking to the sub’s thrusters. . ." The system ran on Bluetooth, according to [Stockton] Rush.
Rob McCallum bowed out of participation at OceanGate, after the former "Lula" converted to being "Cyclops I" got stuck on a harbor bottom during a test dive from a marina, with him and David Lochridge aboard . . . followed by Stockton Rush resisting marine-class certification for the Cyclops I. Rob McCallum did not examine the OceanGate Cyclops II "TITAN."
Returning to David Lochridge observations that are in the New Yorker article - two descriptions in particular, are not made clear by the article author(s):
- "both sealing faces had errant plunge holes and O-ring grooves that deviated from standard design parameters"
That description is not clear about, to what, and where, the description applies.
You can see one of the ballast bags in the CBS News video, wherein David Pogue gets a tour of the OceanGate Cyclops II "TITAN" Redundant Systems during an interview with OceanGate Expedition Manager, Kyle Bingham, at 5:39 into 10:01:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TowaxZDUnY
One or more of the sinews, landyards, cinches of, and to / from the ballast bag, are supposed to be materials that dissolve over time in salt water. The purpose of these materials, is to effectively drop weights after a predetermined time, on the probability that some technical failure has caused the submersible to be stuck at depth. "Sealing faces [with] errant plunge holes and O-ring grooves" do not appear to apply.
All of the discussions about the implosion seem to focus on the view port and the CF crew cylinder. I haven’t seen any speculation about the aft part of Titan. It is my understanding oxygen, battery power and control systems were housed outside of the pressure hull and had some sort of interface to the inside.
h/t dynoman
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4165618/posts?page=36#36
https://twitter.com/DGrootkarzijn/status/1675569914436788224?t=p5XKnoZeYKu8Wah-2ULhaQ&s=19
(Transcribed from the text within the 2 images at the Twitter link. I included depths in feet and rates of descent and ascent.)
[07:52:34][Top] clear for descent. Enjoy the ride.
[07:54:07][SUB] Descending now
[07:58:16][SUB] Launch sequence complete, rdy?
[08:00:39][Top] all clear
[08:01:11][SUB] Proceeding.
[08:03:09][Top] Enjoy the dive gentlemen.
[08:19:53][Top] you're 15 minutes into the dive, current depth. Systems check, please.
[08:21:28][SUB] Systems check complete,all in order. All lights are green. We are 756, proceeding. (2,480 ft)
[08:22:41][Top] Thank you. Proceed.
[08:34:02][Top] 30 minutes in, update please.
[08:34:57][SUB] All systems are functioning normally. We're in good shape. Continuing our descent as planned.
[08:36:05][Top] Superb, proceed.
[08:49:10][Top] Over 45-minute mark. Current depth? Confirm status.
[08:51:30][SUB] Depth at 1934. All systems stable and descent continuing as planned. Happy crew. (6,345 ft)
[08:52:28][Top] Excellent!
[09:01:46][Top] You're at the hour mark.
[09:02:13][SUB] All is smooth sailing here.
[09:15:21][Top] You are at 75 minutes, depth? Status? Do you need to adjust velocity?
[09:17:50][SUB] All under control. At 2960. No adjustments needed. We're enjoying the ride. (9,711 ft - rate of descent approx. 2.13 ft per second)
[09:19:03][Top] Understood
[09:28:16][SUB] we're noting an alarm from the rtm
[09:28:35][SUB] reducing velocity descent depth 3433 (11,263 ft)
[09:28:47][Top] Understood. Do you need to ascend?
[09:30:36][SUB] no change with thrust the rate of descent is increasing. At 35. going to release ballast now. (11,483 ft)
[09:30:55][Top] Yes, agree. Release the ballast.
[09:32:12][SUB] No improvement. Preparing to jettison the frame.
[09:33:00][Top] Affirmative. Update when able. RTM indicator status?
[09:35:48][SUB] frame jettisoned multiple attempts needed. But starting ascent now
[09:36:33][Top] Multiple attempts? What is your status? RTM indicators? Depth?
[09:37:38][Top] Update please when able.
[09:38:09][SUB] crackling sound at aft
[09:38:44][Top] Can you identify source? RTM indicators status?
[09:40:12][SUB] neg
[09:40:40][Top] RTM status?
[09:42:12][SUB] trying to run diagnostics. ascending now. but very slow. sounds have subsided. global RTM alert active all red.
[09:42:57][Top] Understood. Any codes? Depth? Ascent rate?
[09:43:16][Top] Updates when able please.
[09:43:42][SUB] slow ascent in progress. quarter predicted. unclear why rate is small. no indicator. at 3476. aiming for the surface. (11,404 ft)
[09:44:03][Top] We are talking it over with the engineer. Standby.
[09:45:11][Top] Depth and status please. What's the wattage on upwards thrust?
[09:46:37][SUB] reading red on the A power bus. I switched to B. at 3457m more sounds aft (11,342 ft - rate of ascent is approx. 4.25 inches per second)
[09:47:19][Top] Understood, continue ascent. Talking to Carlos about power bus situation right now. Standby.
[09:48:49][Top] We are activating recovery procedures. Carlos is requesting wattage output from bus B. Status update please. Velocity of ascent?
[09:50:09][Top] We're not receiving you. Update please.
[09:51:16][Top] Status and depth report.
[09:53:08][Top] We need you to respond with status and depth. Carlos is requesting wattage update on thrusters.
[09:55:01][Top] We are unable to read you. We are moving to recovery coordinates. Report if you read.
[09:57:22][Top] Please respond if you're able.
Terrible. Dread and horror felt by those waiting for a response that never came!
RTM is the Real Time Hull Health Monitoring System
[Bingham, pointing to the port side upper, white fairing that is just aft of the port side vertical thruster] "Under this last fairing here, we have our variable ballast tank - our soft ballast air bladder - that we use a big 10,000 PSI air tank that is under the tail [to where Bingham points]. We fill that up [fill the air bladder], fill it with air, and then that helps bring us to the surface."
That air bladder system might be something that Stockton Rush activated, trying to improve the rate of ascent.
I am uncertain about the tail section connection with the OceanGate "TITAN" pressure hull assembly. I do not yet know if the tail section would be lost along with "the frame" [the structural support skids-and-posts] - when Stockton Rush managed to shake loose "the frame." Or, if the tail section had strong attachments to the aft end titanium ring and end "bell" cap, and would remain attached . . . when the submersible loses "the frame."
Terrible, yes, but I am thankful that they put up a fight to return to the surface.
Looks like it is back to the drawing board for the OceanGate RTM sensor system. It would be interesting to find out where the sensors were placed.
From a New Yorker article [July 1, 2023] (referred to by a Daily Wire (DW) article [July 4, 2023]):
EXCERPT:
"Carbon fibre makes noise," [Stockton] Rush told David Pogue . . . "It crackles. . . The first time we took it to full pressure, it made a bunch of noise. The second time, it made very little noise."
[Stockton Rush:] "It's a huge amount of pressure from the point where we'd say, ‘Oh, the hull's not happy,' to when it implodes," he noted. "You just have to stop your descent."
It's not clear that Rush could always stop his descent . . .
“Engineers” in their late teens and early 20’s.....
Buys expired carbon fiber that Boeing did not want.
Fires the real engineer who said the design was unsafe.
It will be interesting to find out if OceanGate kept any dive logs for previous dives. This is going to take a year or two to sort out. Maybe the Coast Guard/NTSB can put out a brief preliminary report in the near future...
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