TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE LIVE THREAD!

It is moving very rapidly and is expected to make landfall between the northern tip of Nicaragua and Houma, Louisiana, including western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica sometime within the next week or so. The official forecast has it becoming a hurricane on Thursday before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Previous tropical storm live threads, for Ana and Bill, were posted in the News/Activism forum, and did not garner significant attention because they got buried. Being stupid, I didn't notice that the "weather" topic is in this forum.

Post news articles, NHC bulletins, watches, warnings, hype, speculation, personal stories, and anything else relevant here.

000 WTNT44 KNHC 082023 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

The strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean was a mess of conflicting signals today. On one side, the satellite appearance was that of a significant tropical storm, with satellite intensity estimates as high as 45 knots from Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch. On the other side, the hurricane hunter aircraft, which made several passes through the apparent center and found no closed circulation. Just as the plane was leaving the area at 18Z it found 20-knot southwesterly winds, indicating a poorly-defined circulation, and pressures of 1006-1007 millibars. Based on this, the wave has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Claudette. The 45-knot initial intensity is based on a 57 knot flight-level wind measured by the aircraft.

The initial motion is a very rapid 280/25. Claudette is south of a strong subtropical ridge and should continue in a fast east to east-southeast flow for another 24 hours or so. After that, the storm will approach a weakness in the ridge, which will weaken further after 48 hours as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the eastern United States. National Hurricane Center track guidance responds to this by forecasting a rapid west-northwestward motion for 48 hours, followed by deceleration and a more northwesterly track. One possibility to be watched is that the trough could turn Claudette more northward than forecast. However, current trends suggest that Claudette will be west of the trough axis in 72-96 hours, which would produce a slower and more westward motion.

Claudette currently shows good anticyclonic outflow in all directions, and as long as it does not run under the upper-level low to the west, it should continue to strengthen. Large-scale models suggest that the upper-level winds should remain favorable, so the intensity forecast calls for strengthening until the center reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. After some weakening over land, the system should re-intensify over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

While the wind radii are small, other near-gale winds continue over the northern and northeastern Caribbean away from Claudette. Please consult forecasts from the Tropical Prediction Center and the Weather Forecast Office, San Juan, Puerto Rico for additional information.

Forecaster Beven

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.0N 71.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W 55 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

Strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea spawns Tropical Storm Claudette, the third named storm of the season

At 5 PM EDT, 2100 UTC, the government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm warning for Jamaica.

At 5 PM EDT, 2100 UTC, the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman Islands.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea has developed a closed circulation and has become a tropical storm.

At 5 PM EDT, 2100Z, the poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.0 north, longitude 71.3 west, or about 415 miles, 670 km, east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 29 miles per hour, 46 kilometers per hour, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center of Claudette near Jamaica on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour, 85 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, 110 km to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 1006 millibars, 29.71 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of Claudette.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position: 15.0 °N, 71.3 °W. Movement toward, west near 29 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 50 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure: 1006 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT44 KNHC 090242
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

Claudette has an outstanding satellite presentation with deep convection near the center, excellent outflow, and well-defined banding features. The reconnaissance plane barely closed off a small circulation. However, the minimum pressure dropped to 1000 millibars with a peak wind of 72 knots at 1500 feet suggesting that Claudette has become better organized. Initial intensity is increased 55 knots. The upper-low ahead of Claudette, which could cause some shear, is forecast to move westward and weaken leaving a favorable upper-level environment in northwestern Caribbean. In addition, the upper oceanic heat content in the northwestern western Caribbean is high. Therefore, Claudette is forecast to strengthen and is expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane.

Claudette is moving westward about 22 knots, embedded within a deep easterly mean flow associated with a strong ridge to the north. In the short term, 24 to 48 hours, Claudette should continue on a west to west-northwest track. This is the solution unanimously provided by most of the track guidance. Thereafter, a mid-level trough approaching the Gulf of Mexico should weaken the ridge forcing Claudette to slow down significantly near northern Yucatan. At longer range, the forecast track becomes highly uncertain and depends if the trough bypasses the tropical cyclone or not. This varies with the model you pick.

All indications are that there will be a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico in 4 or 5 days.

Forecaster Avila

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 09/0300Z 15.2N 73.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 80.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.0N 90.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.0N 92.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.0N 93.5W 55 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090240
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

…Air Force plane finds a stronger Claudette…

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.

At 11 PM EDT, 0300 UTC, the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm warning for Grand Cayman. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

At 11 PM EDT, 0300Z, the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.2 degrees north, longitude 73.1 degrees west, or about 310 miles, 500 kilometers, southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 25 miles per hour, 41 kilometers per hour, and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed thereafter.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 miles per hour, 100 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Claudette could become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, 110 kilometers to the north of the center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 1000 millibars, 29.53 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of Claudette.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position: 15.2 °N, 73.1 °W. Movement toward, west near 25 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 65 miles per hour.
Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 AM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 AM EDT.

Forecaster Avila

July 8, 2003 — Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea developed a closed circulation and has become a tropical storm. At 5 p.m. EDT, the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.0 north, longitude 71.3 west or about 415 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, according to the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 29 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center of Claudette near Jamaica on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 1006 mb, 29.71 inches.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves may occur along the south coast of Jamaica. Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches may occur along the path of Claudette.

At 5 p.m. EDT, the government of Jamaica issued a tropical storm warning for Jamaica. The government of the Cayman Islands issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman Islands.

---End of article---

Since I'll bet you don't want graphics slowing down this thread if it gets going, I'll link instead.

NOAA Tracking Map of Tropical Storm Claudette: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/claudette-tracking070803-5pm.jpg

NOAA satellite image of Tropical Storm Claudette taken by the NOAA GOES-10 at 2 PM EDT on July 8, 2003: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/claudette-070803-1800z2.jpg

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

A reconnaissance plane encountered a small band of flight level winds near 85 knots just northeast of the center at 04z, but more recently could only find 55-knot winds in the same area. The 85-knot observation could be used to upgrade Claudette to a hurricane. However, since the central pressure increased to 1004 millibars and the high winds appear to have been transitory, the official one-minute surface wind speed is estimated at 60 knots.

The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme model strengthens Claudette to 76 knots in 36 hours followed by weakening over the Yucatan Peninsula after 48 hours. The latest infrared satellite images show the central dense overcast feature distorted, the outer convective band has diminished, and there appears to be a flattening of the west side outflow by southwesterly winds aloft. These features along with the rise in central pressure are signs of inhibiting the strengthening process for the next several hours, but then strengthening may resume. The official forecast is to 70 knots in 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 275/22. The storm is embedded in deep easterlies to the south of a deep layer mean ridge. This ridge is forecast to break down over the Gulf of Mexico by day 4, which should result in a gradual slowing of forward speed and more northward component of motion. The guidance is generally in good agreement about a slowing west-northwestward track for 3 days bringing the storm across the Yucatan Peninsula and over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Guidance diverges some by day 5 with the Global Forecasting System model showing a location over the Bay of Campeche and the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System model has the center over the north central Gulf. The official forecast follows a consensus of the guidance in between these extremes.

I have been unable to contact the national meteorological service of Mexico by telephone to coordinate a hurricane watch for the Yucatan Peninsula.

Forecaster Lawrence

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.3N 75.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.7N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.2N 82.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 18.7N 85.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 88.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 23.5N 92.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 25.0N 93.0W 55 KT

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

...Claudette moving swiftly across central Caribbean Sea...

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A hurricane watch likely will be issued for the Mexican Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning.

At 5 AM EDT, 0900Z, the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.3 degrees north, longitude 75.5 degrees west, or about 200 miles, 325 kilometers, south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 25 miles per hour, 41 kilometers per hour, and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 miles per hour, 110 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. There is a potential for strengthening during the next day or so and Claudette could become a hurricane. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, 260 kilometers from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 millibars, 29.65 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are expected along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches are likely along the path of Claudette.

Repeating the 5 AM EDT position: 15.3 °N, 75.5 °W. Movement toward, west near 25 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 70 mils per hour. Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 8 AM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 AM EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence

NNNN

000
WTNT44 KNHC 091433
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

Claudette has weakened some this morning. Southwesterly vertical shear has exposed the center intermittently on the edge of the convection, and a reconnaissance aircraft indicates a central pressure of 1004 millibars along with flight-level winds of 59 knots. Based on this, the maximum winds are reduced to 55 knots, and this may be a little generous.

The initial motion is 275/21. There is little change in the synoptic pattern and the forecast philosophy from the previous package. Claudette remains south of a deep layer subtropical ridge, whose western end is forecast to weaken after 36 hours as a deep-layer trough develops over the eastern United States. Claudette will likely be too far south and west to recurve ahead of the trough, so the most likely response of the storm is a slow motion while over the Gulf of Mexico. The track forecast calls for a gradually decelerating west-northwestward motion through 36-48 hours as Claudette approaches the western end of the ridge, followed by a slower northwestward motion over the Gulf of Mexico. This track forecast is along the southern edge of the dynamical models. It should be noted that Beta and Advection Model Shallow and National Hurricane Center 98 are south of the current forecast, but could verify if Claudette weakens further.

Aircraft data shows that the Claudette vortex is rather small, so there is a distinct possibility that if the shear persists the system could weaken to an easterly wave. Assuming that does not happen, large-scale models forecast the upper-level low west of Claudette to weaken after 12-24 hours and the shear to decrease. The low appears stronger on water vapor imagery than on any of the model forecasts for 12Z, so it will likely hang on longer than the models currently forecast. Based on this, the intensity forecast will call for Claudette to change little for the next 24 hours in a marginal-at-best environment, followed by strengthening as the cyclone approaches Yucatan. By the time Claudette reaches the Gulf of Mexico, a large-scale upper-level anticyclone should be in place to provide a favorable environment.

Forecaster Beven

Forecast positions and max winds

INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.5N 77.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.3N 80.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 17.6N 83.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.1N 86.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 20.5N 89.0W 40 KT, INLAND
72HR VT 12/1200Z 22.5N 91.5W 45 KT, OVER WATER
96HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 93.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 25.5N 94.0W 60 KT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 091436
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

...Claudette weakens slightly...

At 11 AM EDT, 1500 UTC, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

At 11 AM EDT, 1500Z, the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 15.5 degrees north, longitude degrees 77.6 west, or about 175 miles, 280 kilometers, south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.

Claudette is moving toward the west near 24 miles per hour, 39 kilometers per hour. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 miles per hour, 100 kilometers per hour, with higher gusts. Upper level winds are not currently favorable for development, and little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, 260 kilometers mainly to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 1004 millibars, 29.65 inches of mercury.

Above normal tides accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are expected along the south coast of Jamaica.

Storm total rainfalls of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with Claudette. Satellite imagery indicates that rain bands should be spreading over Jamaica in the next few hours.

Repeating the 11 AM EDT position: 15.5 °N, 77.6 °W. Movement toward, west near 24 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds, 65 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure: 1004 millibars.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

...CLAUDETTE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE REMAINDER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CLAUDETTE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 375 MILES...605 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A U.S. AIR FORCE
RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CLAUDETTE'S
PATH. EARLY THIS MORNING...HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

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