Congressional Races to watch so far 2004 - ALL States

Several Sources | 4-8-04 | Dan from MI

[Dan from Michigan]

I've seen the senate races heating up, but not nearly as much on the house seats. I'm mostly using information from DC POLITICAL REPORT and POLITICS1.

STATES

Alabama

DISTRICT 3 - The other Mike Rogers (R) won in 02 with 50.3% over Democrat Joe Turnham(48.2%) in an open seat. So far, it looks as he is facing Democrat Bill Fuller, Ex-State Human Resources Commissioner. I haven't heard much about this race, but the first defense is hardest.

Alaska

SENATE - Lisa Murkowski(R) vs Ex governor Tony Knowles. This will be a tough race as Knowles is an ex-governor and Murkowski was appointed.

Arizona

SENATE - John McCain (Rino) is up. I think he has an easy ride, but I'd love to see him get taken out.

DISTRICT 1 (Flagstaff) - Rick Renzi(R) won in 02 with 49.2% over George Cordova(45.6%). He's now facing former Flagstaff mayor and Conconio County Supervisor Paul Babbitt(Bruce Babbitt's Brother?) Conconio had 40816 voters in 02, and Gore won it 50-43 with Nader getting 6%. I'm not familiar with the other counties in this district, but I expect a very close race here based on 02 numbers alone.

Arkansas

SENATE - Blanche Lincoln's first term is up. She had 55% in her first race. She does have a primary against Lisa Burks, who I am not aware of, but she seems like a major leftist. On the GOP side, there are candidates Rosemarie Clampitt, Former St Senator Jim Holt, and former Benton Sheriff Andy Lee (R). I'm not familiar with any of them. Benton is in the NW area by geography which I THINK is the most GOP area of the state. Sometimes a state senator can pull off a win(Spence Abraham 94), but that was in an open seat. Best case scenario IMO would be an active primary on both sides. Name recognition for the GOP, and a left flank problem for Lincon.

California

SENATE - Barbara Boxer (D) took 53% over Matt Fong last time and is facing Bill Jones(R). Jones was elected statewide before, so this could be a race, but it would take a miracle to win this one.

DISTRICT 3 - Doug Ose retired here, and the race is between former AG Dan Lungren(R) and Dem Gabe Castillo. It is an open seat, but Ose won with 62% last time.

DISTRICT 18 (Modesto)- Dennis Cardoza(D) won with 51% last time over Dick Monteith(43%). That was with the Gary Condit fallout. Likely dem, but this is his first defense. Charles F. Pringle, a contractor, is his republican opponent. I'm unfamiliar with him.

DISTRICT 20 - Cal Dooley(D) is retiring leaving this seat open. Dooley won his last race with 63.7%, but he had a scare in 2000 (52%). The democrat is Jim Costa, a former state senator. The republican is State Senator Roy Ashburn.

COLORADO

SENATE - Ben Nighthorse Campbell is retiring, leaving this open. The dems have their best possible candidate running in Ken Salazar. He won his AG race with 57% statewide. The best thing possible there is for the other dems to take some potshots at him. Mike Miles and Larry Johnson are the other dems. On the GOP side, Pete Coors just announced and can self finance, but his views are unknown. Bob Schaffer(R) has been a solid congressman and conservative. Dan O'Bryant and Charles Foster are the other Republicans. This race will be a Toss-up IMO.

DISTRICT 3 (West and South Colorado) - Scott McInnis (who won big here) is retiring. There are a TON of people running here. On the democrat side, there is State Rep John Salazar(Ken's brother I think), Grand Junction mayor Jim Spehar, cook Jim Fritz, former sec fo state candidate Anthony Martinez, and car salesman Randy Fricke. On the GOP side, State Rep Matt Smith, State Rep Gregg Rippy, Pueblo County Sheriff Dan Corsentino, Attorney Doug Sitter, Army Veteran Jerry Eller, and Realitor Delina DiSanto.

The District is large and covers the Western part of the state, as well as the Southern part of the state. Most of the smaller Gore counties are in this district Costilla(64%, but only 1643 voters), Pitkun(53%, with 10% to Nader - 7792 voters), San Miguel(49% with 17% to Nader - 3248 voters), Pueblo(54% - 53882 voters), Las Animas(53% - 6174 voters), Saguache(48%, 2502 voters), Huerfano(48%, 3135 voters). Almost all of them are in the Southern end outside of Pitkun(ASPEN). I suspect most of these are minority areas. Mesa is the GOP counterweight to Pueblo (63% - 50948 votes). Montrose(65% - 14191) is also key, as is Delta(66% - 12630). The rest are real small counties, all for Bush and most of those over 60%.

DISTRICT 7 (Denver Burbs) - Bob Beauprez(R) won with 47.31% in a squeaker in 02 and has a tough defense. He's facing Jefferson County St Attorney Dave Thomas. The district is suburban Denver and covers parts of Jefferson, Adams and Arapahoe counties. Registrations are even here, and I'm not sure who won this in 02. I'd guess Gore if I had to since Gore won Adams, and the parts of Araphahoe and Jefferson(where Bush won) are next to Denver city.

Connecticitt

As of now, all incumbents will likely win IMO.

Delaware

Castle has a free ride.

Florida

SENATE - Bob Graham is retiring and this race is wide open. On the dem side, former state Senator Betty Castor(Tampa area?), Big mouth Congresscritter Peter Deutsch(Broward), and Miami Dade Mayor Alex Penales are the big names. Bill Phillips is a marketing Exec and running as well.

On the GOP side, Bill McCollum is trying again. Cabinent member Mel Martinez is also running, as is House Speaker Johnny Byrd and St Senator Daniel Webster. Bob Smith from New Hampshire is trying again. Judicial Watch's Larry Klayman is trying and recently wasted his money asking me for money. Other Republicans running are Veteran Sonya March, consultant Gwyn McClellan, and software CEO Doug Gallagher.

This one I think is up for grabs and three key factors are going to be organization, name recognition across the state, and "primary effect". If a primary gets nasty, this could be fun. I hope Peter Deutsch is the nominee for the dems.

DISTRICT 5 (Gainsville area) - Ginny Brown-Waite won a squeaker against Dem incumbent Karen Thurman with 47.9%. Will any strong dems try here? The only dems so far are former indy Brian Moore, Teacher Rick Penberthy, and Critical Care Nurse John Russell. Politics1 lists Robert Whittel as well. This looks like a fairly easy ride to me for a Gainsville area district.

DISTRICT 14 - Porter Goss is retiring. He was unopposed in 02, and won with 85% before that. I suspect the primary is the big race here. The only dems are a businessman (Robert Neeld) and an author(Frederick Ramen). The GOP has Former State Rep Connie Mack IV(son of former senator), State Rep Carole Green, Lee County Commissioner Andy Coy, Police Officer Barry Futch, Cardiologist Frank Schwerin, and Ex Ocean Ridge Mayor John shudlick.

DISTRICT 20 - Peter Deutsch isn't running here. GOOD!

GEORGIA

SENATE - Zell Miller is retiring. The dems have what seems to be a weak slate running for this spot. State Senator Mary Squires is likely the most experienced. Denise Majette, who beat Cynthia McKinney, is running for this spot. My guess is that she doesn't want a rematch. The other dems are attorney Gary Leeshaw, Businessman Cliff Oxford, and ex Libertarian George Anderson.

On the GOP side, Congressmen Mac Collins and and Johnny Isakson are facing off. Former CEO Herman Cain is the favorite of a lot of people on this site and I saw some stickers for him at CPAC. Mediator Al Bartnell is the other republican running.

DISTRICT 3 - Jim Marshall (D) won with 50.5% last time (despite a gerrymander) against Former Bibb County Commissioner Calder Clay(R) and it looks like there will be a rematch.

DISTRICT 4 - Solid Democrat and McKinney's old spot, but it will be an interesting primary. McKinney wants her job back and is facing State Senator Nadine Thomas, and Atlanta City Council President Cathy Woolard. The GOP is running Raymond Davis, a minister.

DISTRICT 6 - Isakson's old spot and he had 79% here. No democrats have announced. On the GOP Side, so far we have State Senators Tom Price, Chuck Clay, and Robert Lamutt facing each other. State Rep Robert Hines is running as well, as software engineer Chris Chatwood.

DISTRICT 8 - Mac Collins old spot and he had 78% here. The only dem announced is businesswoman Sylvia Delamar. On the GOP side, State Senator Mike Crofts and State house minority leader Lynn Westmoreland are running. Former gubenatorial aide Dylan Glenn is running as well(Ran against Sanford Bishop before I believe). Teacher Tom Mills is running as well.

DISTRICT 11 - Phil Gingrey (R) won here with 51.6% in an open seat against Roger Kahn. This was Bob Barr's old seat. He has to face Polk County Magistrate Rick Crawford this time. I think this was a gerrymander backfire from 02.

DISTRICT 12 - Max Burns (R) won a tough race with 55% in a Gerrymandered district against Champ Walker(D). The dems have four people running for a shot against him. Former State Senator Doug Haines, Athens-Clarke County commissioner John Barrow, Attorney Tony Center, and Lobbyist Caine Cortellino.

HAWAII

As of now, all incumbents likely to win.

IDAHO

As of now, all incumbents likely to win.

ILLINOIS

SENATE - Jack Ryan(R) vs Barack Obama(D) for Peter Fitzgerald's old spot. Fitzgerald beat Braun with 50.3% in 08. It sounds like Obama wants to be the next Paul Simon. Ryan has the advantage of self-financing and having the same name as the Tom Clancy Hero. His disadvantage is his last name is the same as George Ryan. Obama's last name could be a disadvantage, being one letter away from "Osama". Obama has an advantage of Daley, Chicago, Dem/GOP demographics, and from what I've heard, top notch organization(Taking out Dan Hynes for one). My money is on Obama for now, but there could be an upset if Ryan does everything right.

INDIANA

DISTRICT 2 (South Bend area) - Chris Chocola won a close race with 50.5% in 02 over Jill Long Thompson. He's got a primary against Lawyer Tony Zirkle and the democrat running is Lawyer Joe Donnelly. Chocola should win again, but this could be a fight.

DISTRICT 7 (Indianapolis) - Julia Carson(D) won with 53% last time over Brose McVey. She has a primary against Bob Hildalgo. The GOP primary has Bob Croddy and ex-libertarian Andy Horning.

DISTRICT 8 (West and SW Indiana) - John Hostettler(R) always finds a way to win close and he did again in 02 with 51.3% The dems running are basketball recruiter and Klinton official Jon Jennings and Ex Reform Party member Bill Pearman.

District 9 (SE Indiana) - Baron Hill(D) wins close races like Hostettler does. He won with 51.2% last time against Mike Sodrel who wants a rematch. Hill has a primary with Lee Terry once again as well.

IOWA

DISTRICT 2 - Jim Leach (R) - I remember Iowa's redistricting was tough overall and I think this is a dem district for the most part and Leach's tenure(as well as his liberalism) is what makes him strong. Leach got 52.2% against Julianne Thomas in 02 and faces Iowa City School Board member Dave Franker.

DISTRICT 3 - Leonard Boswell (D) had a tougher than normal fight (53.4%) in 02, against Stan Thompson. They are rematching.

KANSAS

DISTRICT 3 - Can someone take out Dennis Moore (D) for me? He got 50.2% two races in a row, the latest against Former Pilot and Navy Officer Adam Taff, who wants a rematch. State Rep Patricia Lightner and ex Overland Park City Councilman Kris Kobach also want a shot.

Kentucky

SENATE - Jim Bunning (R) won an open seat with 49.7% in 98 so this could be a sleeper. He has a primary with Barry Metcalf as well. On the dem side, State Senator Dan Mongiardo is taking a shot, as is David Williams who ran for congress in 02.

DISTRICT 3 (Louisville) - Anne Northrup (R) keeps surviving her Louisville based district. Last time with 51.6% against Jack Conway. This time she will be facing Jefferson County Circuit Court Clerk Tony Miller or Burrell Farnsley.

DISTRICT 6 - Ken Lucas(D) is retiring and had only 51% last time. The dems have united around George Clooney's dad Nick Clooney who has high name recognition. The GOP has a primary with Geoff Davis who almost won in 02, Attorney Kevin Murphy, and Chiropractor John Kelly King.

District 7 - Ben Chandler(D) won here with 55% in a Special Election which usually has low turnout. This could be a sleeper if it is a good GOP year. A State Senator, Tom Buford, is taking a shot so it tells me this can be winnable. Businessman Don Swarthout and Attorney Bryan Coffman are running.

Louisiana

SENATE - John Breaux(D) is gone. This will be a very tough race the whole way through with the runoff systems. The dems are running Congresscritter Chris John, St treasurer John Kennedy, and St Rep Arthur Morrell. The GOP has ex governor Buddy Roemer and Congressman David Vitter.

DISTRICT 1 - Vitter(R)'s old seat and I think this is a solid GOP seat. Michael Armato is running again for the dems. On the GOP side, Governor candidate Bobby Jindal, State rep Steve Scalise, and State Senator Tom Schedler are running.

DISTRICT 3 - Billy Tauzin's old seat. He's retiring. Billy Tauzin III and Craig Romero are GOP'ers running. The dems running are State Senator Reggie Dupre, State rep Jack Smith, Chamber of Commerce official Charmaine Caccioppi, and former state rep and Sugar exec Charlie Melancon. The Runoff will make this interesting.

DISTRICT 5 - Rodney Alexander(D) won here on a runoff and has to defend his spot. John Cooksey (R)(according to Politics 1) wants to make a comeback.

DISTRICT 7 - Chris John(D) is retiring and opens this seat up. Dems running are State Senator Don Cravins, State Senator Willie Mount, and Former St. Senator Ned Doucet. GOP'ers are Surgeon Charles Boustany Jr and Professor David Thibodaux. 3 senators? That could make an interesting runoff.

Maine

As of now incumbents likely to win.

Maryland

As of now, Incumbents likely to win.

Massachusetts

I don't see any dems losing with a homer on top of the ticket.

Michigan

DISTRICT 7 (South Central Michigan) - Nick Smith is retiring here and opens up this seat. I've been following this one closely as it is a marginal Republican district. There is a 6 way GOP primary here between Liberal and former State Senator Joe Schwarz(Battle Creek), State Rep Gene DeRossett(Manchester), State Rep Clark Bisbee(Jackson), Nick Smith's son and Attorney Brad Smith(Addison?), Former state rep Tim Walberg(Lenawaee County), former state rep Paul DeWeese(Eaton Rapids). Right to Life, gunowners, and conservatives in general are not a fan of Schwarz and a lot of groups are likely going to rally behind one candidate. Ted Nugent endorsed DeRossett. Will the rest follow? No strong democrats have announced, and it looks more and more like they will give the GOP a free pass here. Sharon Renier lost a state rep race against the late Jerry Kratz(Jackson County). Drew Walker is a consultant, and Jason Seagraves is a Perotie running as a dem. Rumor from a dem activist on another board says that Mark Schauer(A very strong dem) doesn't want to give up his senate spot and wants to shoot for leadership. Doug Spade, a moderately pro-2a dem state rep from Adrian might run. He could make this a race, particulary against the anti-gun and pro-abort Schwarz.

Minnesota

As of now, all incumbents likely to win.

Mississippi

As of now, all incumbents likely to win.

Missouri

SENATE - Kit Bond (R) won with 52.7% in 98 so this is not a gimme. State Treasurer Nancy Farmer(D)(won with 51.5%) has won statewide too, so this could be a race. Bond has a primary against Mike Stegner. Farmer has to face Ronald Bonar and Charles Berry.

DISTRICT 3 - Dick Gephardt's gone! WOO HOO!. It's a dem district though with redistricting, but open seats can be a fight. The GOP'ers running are Bill Federer(gave Gep a scare before) and Joan McGivney(former city councilwoman). The dems have a massive primary with 02 Candidate Michael Bram, Michael State Rep Russ Carnahan(I'm so damn sick of that family), Gay Rights Activist Mike Evans, St louis Circuit Clerk Mariano Favazza, Former State Rep Joan Barry, former state rep Jo Ann Karll, Professor Jeff Smith, State Senator Steve Stoll, Law School Dean Mark Smith, and ex White House Intern Corey Mohn.

District 5 - Karen McCarthy is retiring opening up this Kansas City district. The dem primary is most likely the election, but open seats are always interesting to watch. The dems are running former KC mayor Emmannuel Cleaver, former City councilman Dan Cofran, and CFR and State Dept guy Jamie Metzl. The GOP is running Grandview Alderman Steve Dennis, Clay Chastain, Joyce Lea, Jeanne Patterson, and Annalisa Zapien-Pina.

Montana

Incumbent Rehberg likely to win

Nebraska

DISTRICT 1 - Doug Bereuter is resigning 8/31/04. He won his last term with 85%. The dems are running St Senate Matt Connealy, Insurance Exec Janet Stewart, businessman Phil Chase, and construction worker Charlie Matulka. The GOP is running St Senator Curt Bromm, Ex Lincoln City-Councilman Jeff Fortenberry, Photojournalist Andy Ringsmuth, Dan Manning, Greg Walburn, Cattlemen's Association Executive VP Greg Ruehle, and Businessman Bob Van Valkenburg.

Nevada

SENATE - Harry Reid won with 47.8% last time. He's gotten lucky and the top tier candidates like Jim Gibbons has decided not to run. There still is a large primary though for the GOP - sanitation worker Carlo Poliak, mine safety dir. Cherie Tilley, veteran Ken Wegener, realtor and Vietnam Veteran Jack Woodcock, and Rick Ziser. It's Reid's race to lose though.

New Hampshire

As of now, incumbents likely to win.

New Jersey

As of now, incumbents likely to win.

New Mexico

DISTRICT 1 - Heather Wilson(R) has had tough races, but keeps winning, last time with 55%. The dem primary has retired DEA agent Eli Chavez, State Senate president and 02 nominee Richard Romero, and Dr. Miles Nelson. Could be a sleeper.

New York

DISTRICT 1 - Tim Bishop(D) won with 50% last time over an incumbent. He's facing Bill Manger, a Dept of Transportation official.
DISTRICT 29 - Amo Houghton is retiring. The Dems are running Samara Barend, a Grad school student. The GOP primary so far has State Senator Randy Kuhl, State Assemblyman Brian Kolb, Monroe County Legislator Mark Assini, and investment banker Geoffrey Rosenberger.

North Carolina

Senate - Good riddance John Edwards. Erkstine Bowles vs Richard Burr. Bowles got 45% in 02 against Dole and wants another shot.

DISTRICT 5 - Open seat. Burr's old one. The dems are running Computer consultant David E Crawford, Salesman Andrew Winfrey, and Surry County Commissioner Jim Harrell Jr. The GOP has a massive primary here. Winston Salem City Councilman Vernon Robinson is running and was at CPAC this year. St Sen Virginia Foxx, former st rep Ed Powell, Ex-Wilkes County Commissioner Joe Byrd, Nathan Tabor, Ed Broyhill, Jay Helvey, and David Vanhoy are also running.

DISTRICT 8 - Robin Hayes(R) with redistricting has a tougher district. He won in 02 though with 53.6%. Politics 1 has listed Bill Alexander, Billy Richardson, and Wayne Troutman as possible candidates.

DISTRICT 10 - Cass Ballenger(R) is retiring. Electrical contractor John Cole is running for the dems. On the GOP side, St Rep Patrick McHenry, Catawba County Sheriff David Huffman, Ex-Cable Company President Sandy Lyons, and Textile Company CEO George Meretz are all running.

DISTRICT 11 - That's Freeper John Armor's race.

North Dakota

AT LARGE DISTRICT - Earl Pomeroy was held to 52.4%, which is low for a 6 term rep. He's facing Duand Sand, who held him to 53% in 00. Possible sleeper, but likely dem.

Ohio

As of now, incumbents likely to win.

Oklahoma

Senate - Don Nickles (R) is retiring. Congresscritter Brad Carson is a strong dem running. State Insurance Commissioner Carroll Fisher is running as well, as are Monte Johnson and Jim Rogers. Carson is the likely nominee. On the GOP side, former rep Dr. Tom Coburn would be the strongest candidate since he can win democrat districts - like Carson's old one. Kirk Humphries is OKC's mayor and running as well. State Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony, and Linda Murphy are also running.

DISTRICT 2 - Brad Carson's old district. Democrat leaning, but Coburn won it. St Rep Dan Boren(David's son) is running for the dems are, former st rep Lloyd Fields and former DA Kalyn Free. Wayland Smalley, a Racehorse Breeder is running for the GOP.

DISTRICT 4 - Tom Cole(R) won with 53.8%, but DC Report says that Barry Switzer might(or may not) run for the dems.

Oregon

As of now, Incumbents are likely to win.

Pennsylvania

SENATE - Arlen Specter(R) vs Pat Toomey(R) in the primary, and the winner takes on gun grabber Joe Hoeffel(D). Specter got 61% in 98, but only 49% against Lynn Yeakel. Geography will play a big role in this race as Toomey is from Leigh Valley, Specter from Philly, and Hoeffel from Montgomery.

DISTRICT 6 - Jim Gerlach(R) got 51.6% in his first race against Danny Wofford(related to Harris?). He's facing Attorney Lois Murphy this time around.

DISTRICT 13 - Joe Hoeffel had a scare here in 00 against Melissa Brown in a redistricted race combined with Borski's district. He's running for Senate. The dems are running Handgun Control's(they wanted her against Santorum) hero state senator Allyson Schwartz and Ex Phily Deputy Mayor Joe Torsella. Melissa Brown wants another shot. The GOP is also running State Senator Ellen Braun and Al Taubenberger.

DISTRICT 15 - Pat Toomey(R) is running for Senate. The dems are running Businessman Joe Driscoll and attorney Rick Orloski. The GOP is running State Senator Charlie Dent, Lehigh County Commissioner Joe Pascuzzo, and attorney Brian O'Neill.

DISTRICT 17 - Tim Holden(D) won with 51.4% over George Gekas in a dual incumbents race. From what I remember, it's a GOP leaning district, but Holden outworked Gekas. The GOP has a 6 way primary including Attorney Scott Paterno(Joe's son), Teacher and former College Football Star Ron Hostetler, Retired USAF General Bill Lynch, Accounting Consultant Frank Ryan, Realtor Sue Helm, and former Deputy AG Mark Stewart.

Rhode Island

Unfortunatly, all incumbents are likely to win, but I'd love to see Patrick Rogers take out that ass Paddy "I never had to work a f'ing day in my life" Kennedy.

South Carolina

SENATE - Fritz Hollings(D) is outta here! The Dems have a strong candidate in Inez Tenenbaum. The GOP has a 6 way primary including former Governor David Beasley, Ex AG Charlie Condon, Congressman Jim DeMint, Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, Businesswoman Orly Benny Davis, and developer Thomas Ravenel. This will be a tough race, but certainly winnable.

DISTRICT 4 - Jim DeMint(R) is running for Senate opening this up. The Dems are running Police Officer Andrew Wittman and Funeral Director Brandon Brown. The GOP is running Ex Congressman Bob Inglis, former state rep Carole Wells, and retired contractor Jack Adams.

South Dakota

SENATE - Tommy Boy vs John Thune. This one will likely go down to the wire and crossover votes.

AT Large District - Stephanie Herseth is a strong dem who got 45% against a governor. Larry Diedrich is a State Senator and is running here for the GOP. What's interesting here is that there are two races. June 1 and also November. What's also interesting is if high turnout will affect this in November.

Tennessee

DISTRICT 4 - Lincoln Davis(D) is a first termer and won with 52.1% in an off year with Income Tax Sundquist in the news. He has a likely rematch with Janice Bowling. Donald Cuva and Dale Harvey are also running for the GOP.

Texas

Redistricting makes things REAL interesting.

DISTRICT 1 - Max Sandlin(D) has a real fight. He won his old district with 56.2%. He takes on 02 Nominee John Graves or District Judge Louie Gohmert.

DISTRICT 2 - Jim Turner(D) is retiring. Congresscritter Nick Lampson(D) is running here. He's facing District Judge Ted Poe. Redistricting hurts the rats here too.

DISTRICT 4 - Ralph Hall (Now R) Switched parties, faces Jim Nickerson(D).

DISTRICT 9 - Chris Bell(D) was ousted in the dem primary by Justice of the Peace Al Green. The GOP is running Attorney Arlette Molina.

DISTRICT 10 - Lloyd Doggett(D) moved to 25th. No democrat running. GOP is running Ben Streusand and Mike McCaul.

DISTRICT 11 - Chet Edwards(D) moved to 17th. Dem running is teacher Wayne Raasch. The GOP is running businessman Mike Conaway.

DISTRICT 17 - Chet Edwards(D) survived his last race with 51.5%. He's facing either Ex Waco School Board President Dot Snyder or State Rep Arlene Wohlgemuth. Hopefully Edwards finally gets the boot.

DISTRICT 19 - Dual Incumbents. Charlie Stenholm(D) against Randy Neugebauer(R). Stenholm survived last time with 51.3%, while Neugebauger won his first term with 50.3% in a runoff(Against another republican).

DISTRICT 23 - Henry Bonilla (R) survived last time with 51.5%. Redistricting helped him immensely. He's facing professor Joe P. Sullivan.

DISTRICT 24 - Martin Frost(D) moved to the 32nd district. The Dems are running ex GREEN PARTY candidate Gary Page. The GOP is running State Rep Kenny Marchant.

DISTRICT 28 - Barring any recount suprises and court cases, Incumbent Ciro Rodriguez was given the heave ho in the primary by Henry Cueller, who was Bonilla's opponent in 02. GOP candidates are Attorney and Banker Francisco "Quico" Canseco and Attorney and Army Vet Jim Hopson. If bad feelings abound from the primary, this could be interesting.

DISTRICT 32 - Dual Incumbents and a heavyweight bout between Martin Frost(D) and Pete Sessions(R). Hopefully, this will be the end of Frost's days in Washington. Doggett and Frost need to go.

Utah

DISTRICT 2 - Jim Matheson(D) survived with 49.4% last time. He may have a rematch with John Swallow. Other GOP'ers running are Salt Lake Councilman David Wilde and businessman Tim Bridgewater.

Vermont

As of now, all incumbents will likely win.

Virginia

DISTRICT 8 - Jim Moron (D), I mean Moran, no..Moron, is in a hellva bad way right now because of his mouth. He has a primary against Andy Rosenberg, Wayne Madsen, and Jim Hurysz. The GOP has a primary here as well. Police officer Mike Riccadi, PTA activist Robb Rourke, Government Relations Consultant Lisa Marie Cheney, and former Gubenatorial aide Jane Eshagpoor are all running to take on Jim Moron.

Washington State

SENATE - Patty Murray (D) won with 58% last time, and has a race this time with Congressman George Nethercutt. Could be a sleeper, but it would take a miracle with Seattle.

DISTRICT 2 - Rick Larsen (D) survived with 50.1% last time against Norma Smith. He'll face Island County Auditor Suzanne Sinclair or Businessman Glenn Coggeshell III.

DISTRICT 5 - George Nethercutt(R) is running for Senate. The dems are running businessmen Don Barbieri and ex-republican Craig Sullivan. The GOP are running State Rep Cathy McMorris, former state rep Todd Mielke, State Senate Majority Floor leader Larry Sheahan, and attorney Shaun Cross.

DISTRICT 8 - Jennifer Dunn(R) is retiring. The dems are running Internet Executive Alex Alben, and frequent candidate Heidi Behrens-Benedict. The GOP is running King County Sheriff Dave Reichert, State Senator Luke Esser, Bellevue City Councilman Conrad Lee, and Ex US-Attorney Diane Tebelius.

West Virginia

As of now, incumbents likely to win.

Wisconsin

SENATE - Russ Feingold survived with 50.5% last time against Mark Neumann. The GOP has a primary with State Senator Bob Welch, Construction Company Exec Tim Michels, Auto Dealer Russ Darrow, and Attorney Robert Lorge.

DISTRICT 4 - Jerry Kleczka (D) is retiring. Dem primary is likely winner. The dems running are State Senators Tim Carpenter and Gwen Moore, State rep Shirley Krug, and attorney Matt Flynn. The GOP is running former HHS regional director Corey Hoze who seems to be running a strong campaign.

Wyoming

All incumbents likely to win.

[Dan from Michigan]

If any of you here have more to add or any insights on these races, by all means, please do.

[zebrahead]

I've been watching the Senate races pretty closely and it is going to be interesting. Here's what I got.

I see a total of 9 races that look like they will be very close and could switch parties:

1) South Carolina - Beasley/DeMint vs. Tenenbaum
2) North Carolina - Burr vs. Bowles
3) Louisiana - Vitter vs. John
4) Florida - McCollum/Martinez vs. Deutsch/Castor/Penelas
5) Oklahoma - Coburn/Humphreys vs. Carson
6) Colorado - Coors/Schaffer vs. Salazar
7) Pennsylvania - Toomey/Specter vs. Hoeffel
8) Alaska - Murkowski vs. Knowles
9) South Dakota - Thune vs. Daschle

At this point, I see Zell Miller's seat in Georgia going to a Republican and Peter Fizgerald's seat in Illinois going to a Democrat. Isakson, Collins, or Cain should be able to win in Georgia with Bush on top of the ticket against Majette. Something is going to have to change before I interpret the primary results in Illinois as anything but a sign that Obama looks to be the strong favorite. Ryan has a chance, but I'm not optimistic because Bush is close to writing off the state and the state GOP won't offer much assistance either.

There are 4 races that probably won't be very close but at least have a reasonable shot at becoming so:

1) Washington - Nethercutt vs. Murray
2) California - Jones vs. Boxer
3) Wisconsin - Michels/Darrow/Welch vs. Feingold
4) Missouri - Bond vs. Farmer

The rest of the races probably won't be much to watch as one side is heavlily favored. For the GOP, Bennett, Brownback, Bunning, Crapo, Grassley, Gregg, McCain, and Voinovich should face easy re-elections. For the Dems, it's Bayh, Dodd, Dorgan, Inouye, Leahy, Lincoln, Mikulski, Reid, Schumer, and Wyden with easy paths to re-election. Nevada and Arkansas were the biggest recruiting failures of the GOP in this cycle. Reid should not have gotten a pass from Jim Gibbons and Lincoln would have been vulnerable to Asa Hutchison or Mike Huckabee.

Overall, the Dems did a better job this cycle recruiting and creating a small opportunity to actually win back the Senate. A year ago, the Dems were thought to have ZERO chance of retaking the Senate and now once-safe seats in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania are very much in play. Georgia was the Dems only major recruiting stumble. They actually got some of their "dream" candidates to run for seats, unlike the GOP who failed to get even one Ed Shaffer or Rudy Giuliani to give it a try. Knowles, Tenenbaum, and Carson were all considered the strongest possible candidates the Dems could get in their respective states and they got all three, which I find quite impressive considering we can't seem to do the same. They also cleared the field nicely for Hoeffel in Pennsylvania and Salazar in Colrado. Bowles isn't a great candidate, but he's rich and he has good name ID from running for Senate in 2002 against Liddy Dole. All three of the Democratic candidates in Florida should be considred top-tier, while McCollum could be a disaster-in-waiting for Republicans.

While I previously thought the GOP would gain at least 3 seats in 2004, I now think a one or two seat gain is more likely. It is really tough to guess right now given the possible scenarios that could develop, including yet-to-be-decided primaries in South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, Georgia, and Colorado. If the right candidates make it through we should do well but if not we might be in trouble. In specific, I would sour on our chances in Florida if McCollum is nominated and in Oklahoma if Humphreys is nominated.

[rhinohunter]

There is no district 7 in KY.

[Dan from Michigan]

Sorry about that. Mix up.

Chandler's is KY - 6
Lucas/Clooney is KY - 4
Northup is KY - 3

[zbigreddogz]

First off, SC is almost a sure thing. NC and OK are also leaning heavily R.

And McCollum isn't going to be the nominee. Mel Martinez will be. And Mel Martinez is a dream candidate.

[Clintonfatigued]

In Missisippi District 2, 'Rat Bennie Thompson was reelected with a closer-than-expected margin in 2002 and faces a rematch with Clinton DeSeur. With Bush at the top of the ticket and no major races here, this has the potential to be a sleeper.

In Mississippi Distrcit 5, conservative 'Rat Gene Taylor runs ahead of party lines in this heavily Republican district. For the first time in his Congressional career, he faces a sitting officeholder, state Rep. Mike Lott. Though not related to the locally popular Trent Lott, Mike Lott could benefit from the name confusion. Taylor should win, but if his margin falls, he may seek another office soon, opening this seat up.

[Clintonfatigued]

Here's another: In Arkansas Distrcit 2, liberal 'Rat Congressman Vic Snyder (D-Little Rock) has drawn state House Minority Leader Marvin Parks as an opponent. Parks has had early fundraising success and could produce an upset.

[Brandon]

DISTRICT 2 - Jim Leach (R) - I remember Iowa's redistricting was tough overall and I think this is a dem district for the most part and Leach's tenure(as well as his liberalism) is what makes him strong. Leach got 52.2% against Julianne Thomas in 02 and faces Iowa City School Board member Dave Franker.

I live in this district. Leach was first elected in 1976, and imho will hold the seat until he either retires or dies. I am casually acquainted with Dave Franker, and he's a nice guy, but he's to the left of Leach, and even the 2nd District won't go that far, especially considering Leach's seniority and RINO-hood (and I don't use that term lightly).

[zebrahead]

I completely agree in expecting Republican victories in NC and SC, but it will likely be close. Oklahoma is far from leaning heavily Republican, especially if Humphreys is the nominee. Martinez might be considered a dream candidate because of his profile. His lack of experience and name recognition might suggest otherwise.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

I doubt the GOP has much of a chance in TX CD- 28, but if we do, the best that can be done is to nominate Canseco.

[zbigreddogz]

It depends on what you mean by 'close'. I think we'll get at least 52% in both races.

Oaklahoma isn't heavily R if Humphries is the nominee, I agree, but I think Coburn is gonna smash him in the primary, and if he does, he's as close to invincible as they come.

[zbigreddogz]

Bowles got 45% of the vote last time. Not exactly a squeeker loss. I don't see how he's gonna pick up an extra 5%+1.

None of the polls have him running over 45% (at least none I've seen). He's got his support shored up, but I don't see him getting much more.

Burr's a great campaigner, from what I've heard. I expect him to trash Bowles.

[ken5050]

super job, and thanks..we were away, so I'm just catching up...

two points, if I may...Alaskam won't even be close...she'll will easily..Bush is 20% ahead, that would posit a HUGE amount of ticket splitting for the dems to pull out the senate race, and the Dem candidate will be running AGAINST his party's positiion on ANWR....

re Georgia...McKinney is gonna hurt the dems badly...I can't wait to see Kerry come there to campaign in Atlanta..and as a liberal, and dmajority balck citt, it's the one place int he south he'll have to put in an appearance...so picture Kerry ont he dias with Cynthia....and superimposed with her dad's comments after the 2002 election..

[AuH2ORepublican]

Good list. But you forgot a few good races. Off the top of my head:

In Oregon, Republican State Senator Jackie Winters is challenging Democrat Congresswoman Darlene Hooley in a district that Bush carried in 2000. If elected, Winters would be the first black female Republican in Congress. See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/1109340/posts

Also, you forgot about Randy Graf's primary challenge to RINO Congressman Jim Kolbe in Arizina. See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1103692/posts

[rapture-me]

DISTRICT 17 - Chet Edwards(D) survived his last race with 51.5%. He's facing either Ex Waco School Board President Dot Snyder or State Rep Arlene Wohlgemuth. Hopefully Edwards finally gets the boot.

Arlene won the run-off election so Cheat will now face her. If anyone can beat him, it's Arlene. GOODBY Chet! Good riddance!

[deport]

Texas House Races post primaries

[arkansasrose]

Maybe not much chance of a win this time but hopefully paving the way for an eventual win - Arkansas' 1st congressional district race: Republican Vernon Humphries is taking on Democrat Marion "bubble up" Berry.