Skip to comments.Have the Republicans given up on the Missouri 3rd District...?
Posted on 09/20/2004 11:20:40 AM PDT by OriginalChristian
The Missouri 3rd Congressional District seat has been held by Richard Gephardt since I was in High School ~25 years ago. Now we have D-Russ Carnahan, son of the late Missouri Governor, and former US Senator, Mel and Jean Carnahan, a sitting state representative, running gainst R-Bill Federer. Bill has run against Gephardt before and lost.
Has the Republican party given up on this seat? I see nothing more than the usual campaign signs and a few bumper stickers in the area. The campaign is sending out eMails at the rate of about 1 every 2 weeks by my estimation, but nothing more. I have heard
Conservatives in the 3rd District have had their fill of Gephardt and his ilk. What is the party doing SPECIFICALLY about the 3rd District in Missouri?
I suppose Federer has a better chance this time, since it is an open seat. But I was not impressed with him as a candidate or with his campaign last time he ran (2000).
Don't give up yet. More than once, I have seen the Republican Party in Florida win a seat in the state house by deliberately lulling the opposition with a minimal effort but then putting a lot in through last minute advertising buys and GOTV effort. Conversely, there are times when other requirements or problems with a candidate, a campaign, or a district make a large commitment of resources inadvisable.
Also, the campaign budget can shrink and you are defending what you have instead of hoping for gains, or the budget expands and you are putting down long shot bets. Polling also matters a great deal -- not the stuff in the newspapers, but the far more detailed and sophisticated internal polls, broken down by subgroups and run daily so that trends become apparent.
These kinds of judgments are closely held by a handful of party strategists, with the campaigns themselves mostly kept in the dark. These days, our strategists and operatives tend to be sharper than the opposition, so even if your district does not get the effort that you would like, there are reasons why and capable people making the decisions.
Nothing. They are saving their resources for winnable races.
If they don't win this seat now, they won't have another shot for 20 years. I don't get it. Its winnable.
I agree, but Bill came close and gave Gephardt a run in 2002. Who else are they cultivating besides Federer? Its hard for me to believe that nobody is interested. Here we have yet another Democrat representing a minority in the geography. Makes no sense.
It was redistricted into a much more solidly Democratic district for the 2002 race. In what was a great year for the GOP in Missouri, Gephardt took 59%.
The numbers are squarely against any Republican there now.
Actually, Federer did not run in '02. It was Catherine Enz.
I think Federer ran and lost the three previous times to Li'l Dick. His best showing was '98. He went backward in '00.
(I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think those facts are accurate.)
This race is an example of recruiting failure among Republicans. The one Republican who could have won this seat is outgoing state Senator Anita Yeckel. But she ran a hopeless campaign for state Treasurer and lost the priamry to fellow state Senator Sarah Steelman. Instead, the G.O.P. is stuck with a third-tier candidate.
Actually, this district will be open before that. State Representative Russ Carnahan has statewide ambitions, perhaps to unseat Jim Talent in 2008.
He can't beat Talent.
I'll have to look at a map of the district boundaries. I sure don't see many Democrats in my noeck of those woods.
I stand corrected.
Enz never had a chance either.
I don't understand where all these supposed Dems are in this distrct. I'll have to haul out a map and take a look at it.
"I don't understand where all these supposed Dems are in this distrct. I'll have to haul out a map and take a look at it."
I would've thought with all the urban flight over the past decade that this would be more even.
Another reason to abandon ship when my mom passes. I just can't stand being represented by these scumbags.