Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Have the Republicans given up on the Missouri 3rd District...?
Self | 20 SEP 04 | OriginalChristian

Posted on 09/20/2004 11:20:40 AM PDT by OriginalChristian

The Missouri 3rd Congressional District seat has been held by Richard Gephardt since I was in High School ~25 years ago. Now we have D-Russ Carnahan, son of the late Missouri Governor, and former US Senator, Mel and Jean Carnahan, a sitting state representative, running gainst R-Bill Federer. Bill has run against Gephardt before and lost.

Has the Republican party given up on this seat? I see nothing more than the usual campaign signs and a few bumper stickers in the area. The campaign is sending out eMails at the rate of about 1 every 2 weeks by my estimation, but nothing more. I have heard

Conservatives in the 3rd District have had their fill of Gephardt and his ilk. What is the party doing SPECIFICALLY about the 3rd District in Missouri?


TOPICS: Missouri; Parties; State and Local; U.S. Congress
KEYWORDS: carnahan; federer; gephardt; missouri; mo3rddistrict

1 posted on 09/20/2004 11:20:51 AM PDT by OriginalChristian
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: OriginalChristian
I'm frustrated, too. This is a winnable seat.

I suppose Federer has a better chance this time, since it is an open seat. But I was not impressed with him as a candidate or with his campaign last time he ran (2000).

2 posted on 09/20/2004 11:55:21 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Clayton, St. Louis County)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OriginalChristian

Don't give up yet. More than once, I have seen the Republican Party in Florida win a seat in the state house by deliberately lulling the opposition with a minimal effort but then putting a lot in through last minute advertising buys and GOTV effort. Conversely, there are times when other requirements or problems with a candidate, a campaign, or a district make a large commitment of resources inadvisable.

Also, the campaign budget can shrink and you are defending what you have instead of hoping for gains, or the budget expands and you are putting down long shot bets. Polling also matters a great deal -- not the stuff in the newspapers, but the far more detailed and sophisticated internal polls, broken down by subgroups and run daily so that trends become apparent.

These kinds of judgments are closely held by a handful of party strategists, with the campaigns themselves mostly kept in the dark. These days, our strategists and operatives tend to be sharper than the opposition, so even if your district does not get the effort that you would like, there are reasons why and capable people making the decisions.


3 posted on 09/20/2004 12:40:54 PM PDT by Rockingham
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OriginalChristian

Nothing. They are saving their resources for winnable races.


4 posted on 09/20/2004 12:56:08 PM PDT by The Old Hoosier (Right makes might.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: The Old Hoosier

If they don't win this seat now, they won't have another shot for 20 years. I don't get it. Its winnable.


5 posted on 09/20/2004 2:06:24 PM PDT by OriginalChristian (www.catholicsagainstkerry.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Charles Henrickson

I agree, but Bill came close and gave Gephardt a run in 2002. Who else are they cultivating besides Federer? Its hard for me to believe that nobody is interested. Here we have yet another Democrat representing a minority in the geography. Makes no sense.


6 posted on 09/20/2004 2:08:06 PM PDT by OriginalChristian (www.catholicsagainstkerry.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: OriginalChristian

It was redistricted into a much more solidly Democratic district for the 2002 race. In what was a great year for the GOP in Missouri, Gephardt took 59%.

The numbers are squarely against any Republican there now.


7 posted on 09/20/2004 2:30:06 PM PDT by The Old Hoosier (Right makes might.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: OriginalChristian
Bill came close and gave Gephardt a run in 2002.

Actually, Federer did not run in '02. It was Catherine Enz.

I think Federer ran and lost the three previous times to Li'l Dick. His best showing was '98. He went backward in '00.

(I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think those facts are accurate.)

8 posted on 09/20/2004 4:25:42 PM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Clayton, St. Louis County)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: OriginalChristian

This race is an example of recruiting failure among Republicans. The one Republican who could have won this seat is outgoing state Senator Anita Yeckel. But she ran a hopeless campaign for state Treasurer and lost the priamry to fellow state Senator Sarah Steelman. Instead, the G.O.P. is stuck with a third-tier candidate.


9 posted on 09/20/2004 7:36:30 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OriginalChristian

Actually, this district will be open before that. State Representative Russ Carnahan has statewide ambitions, perhaps to unseat Jim Talent in 2008.


10 posted on 09/20/2004 7:40:20 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

He can't beat Talent.


11 posted on 09/21/2004 9:55:37 AM PDT by OriginalChristian (www.catholicsagainstkerry.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: The Old Hoosier

I'll have to look at a map of the district boundaries. I sure don't see many Democrats in my noeck of those woods.


12 posted on 09/21/2004 9:57:19 AM PDT by OriginalChristian (www.catholicsagainstkerry.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Charles Henrickson

I stand corrected.
Enz never had a chance either.

I don't understand where all these supposed Dems are in this distrct. I'll have to haul out a map and take a look at it.


13 posted on 09/21/2004 9:59:00 AM PDT by OriginalChristian (www.catholicsagainstkerry.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: OriginalChristian

"I don't understand where all these supposed Dems are in this distrct. I'll have to haul out a map and take a look at it."



Since redistricting, the district includes even more of St. Louis City than it did from 1992-2000. That's why Bush will be lucky to get over 45% in the district in 2004---under the current lines, Bush got 43% in 2000.


14 posted on 09/23/2004 11:29:59 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: AuH2ORepublican

I would've thought with all the urban flight over the past decade that this would be more even.

Another reason to abandon ship when my mom passes. I just can't stand being represented by these scumbags.


15 posted on 09/23/2004 11:50:07 AM PDT by OriginalChristian (www.catholicsagainstkerry.com Kerry's NOT EVEN CLOSE to being Catholic.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson