Neither Ehrlich or Steele Will Rule Out Running For Senate (Potential GOP Senate Pick-up))

The Hedgehog Report ^ | March 13, 2005 | Dave Wissing

[Torie]

I don't. The guy is an engaging figure. He will win easily.

[LdSentinal]

The primary and/or the general?

Rhetorical question, of course, but I have checked out the DU, Kos, and Mydd and naturally they're all quite enthusiastic about his candidacy. But I also checked out sites where the Democrats are quite knowledgeable and they're worried about him running. They seem worried about Mfume running costing them this seat and want Van Hollen to run and beat him.

Of course, your prediction may turn out to be correct or turn out like your Castor vs. Martninez prediction.

[Torie]

Of course, your prediction may turn out to be correct or turn out like your Castor vs. Martninez prediction.

LOL. I think that prediction was on election night, when I underestimated the Kerry-Martinez voters in Cuban precincts. That turned to be wrong within a couple of hours. It happens, although to be fair to myself, rarely. :) Mfume is a very engaging and articulate personality, with quite a life history. He will be hard to beat, particularly for a federal office. The Red Blue divide when it comes to senate seats is becoming more and more impermeable, particularly as the stake rise as to who gets on the federal court.

[LdSentinal]

Oh, I didn't mean that as an insult. Just something I noticed reading that thread last night -- I also read the thread from Election '02 last night. Sorry. I just have the feeling that Mfume will bow out or he will lose with the MD Democratic establishment supporting a white liberal.

[Torie]

I certainly didn't take it as an insult. You were right to point out my imperfections. But notice I readily fessed up to it. We all misread the tea leaves from time to time.

[Kuksool]

I wonder if Connie Morella would give the Senate a shot. She represented Montgomery County for many years, before being redistricted out in 2002. She may be able to appeal to the white liberals in DC suburbs. Unfortunately, there are plenty of them in MD which makes electing a conservative statwide difficult.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I wonder if Connie Morella would give the Senate a shot."

---

Connie Morella is (i) WAY, WAY, WAY too liberal to win a statewide GOP primary, (ii) WAY, WAY too socially liberal for general election voters outside of Montco, PG County and a few precincts in Baltimore City, Baltco and Howard County, and (iii) old enough to fart dust. Basically, Connie is just as socially liberal as Kweisi Mfume and more so than Ben Cardin, and I doubt that she could win a Senate election; plus, given her expected voting record, I think I'd rather have Cardin.

The MD GOP recently tried running a former Congresswoman who was pushing 80, and Helen Bentley (who, unlike Morella, is a solid blue-collar conservative in the Bob Ehrlich mode---in fact, she is more conservative than Ehrlich) was unable to beat Dutch Ruppersberger in a district whose partisan balance is similar to that of the state as a whole. I think the secret to the GOP winning is not to try to convince affluent Montco RINOs to vote Republican (since President Bush got 33% in 2004, the last Republican to carry Montco in a statewide race was Reagan in 1984 by less than 1,000 votes and the only GOP presidential candidate since Ike to get over 50% in Montco was Nixon in 1972), but to get higher margins in blue-collar areas. That's what Ehrlich did when he got blown out in Montco and PG County and still got 51.55% for the upset victory.

[Spiro]

I don't know a whole lot about MD politics but I know I was VERY surprised when Ehrlich won. I don't think Steele has a snowball's chance in hell personally, simply because the state is so liberal.

I think it would be great to get him to run, because I think at least he would ruffle the D's feathers and it would be great for the GOP to get someone as eloquent and intelligent as Steele out on the national stage. He might also get close enough to siphon money away from the DNC that they will hopefully dearly need for
ND
FL
NE

[AuH2ORepublican]

You don't know much about MD politics? Pretty ironic with your handle. : )

I agree that a Steele candidacy would help the GOP even if he falls a bit short, not only in NE, ND and FL, but also in Ehrlich's reelection and in future elections in MD. And I really think that Steele can pull of the upset---in fact, if Mfume is the nominee, I wouldn't even characterize a Steele victory as an upset.

[Spiro]

Haha. Good point. I have to think that even MD Dems are too smart to nominate Mfume. However, I would still give him the edge if he won the nomination.

Who do you think is our easiest target?

I go Conrad.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I think Ben Nelson is our easiest target, assuming we can get someone to run---however, I think I'd rather have him switch to the GOP so we can save the money it would take to get someone maybe 1% more conservative than Nelson. But Conrad is definitely in trouble if Gov. Hoeven runs.

[Vision]

Steele will be President someday, methinks

Nice thought but you're wrong

[Vision]

Ehrlich shot himself in the foot with the Baltimore port thing. I pray I'm wrong, but I don't think he can be reelected.

[RockinRight]

Why don't you think so?

[Vision]

Because he's not sharp enough. I am a fan of his though