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Poll Shows Latest on Senate, Governor's Races (Maryland--Mfume within 1% of Cardin!)
The Washington Post.com ^ | April 12, 2006 | Tim Craig and John Wagner

Posted on 04/17/2006 6:54:00 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican

It turns out the numbers in the Comptroller's race aren't the only interesting ones in a new poll commissioned by Del. Peter Franchot (D-Montgomery), a hopeful for the office.

The same poll, conducted by Garin Hart Yang, showed the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in a statistical dead heat between Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin of Baltimore and Kweisi Mfume, the former congressman and NAACP leader. Cardin had the support of 32 percent of likely Democratic voters, while Mfune netted 31 percent. No other caniddate received more than 3 percent and 32 percent were undecided.

In the Democratic primary for governor, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley led Montgomery County Exeuctive Douglas M. Duncan, 47 precent to 33 percent, with 20 percent undecided.

The survey by Garin Hart Yang Research Group interviewed 505 likely Democratic voters between April 3 and April 6. The Washington-based polling firm conducted the survey for Franchot, a Democratic candidate for comptroller who says he is neutral in the governor's race.

[snip]

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Maryland; Campaign News; Parties; Polls; U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: 2006senate; bencardin; cardin; kweisi; kweisimfume; mfume; michaelsteele; senate2006; steele
If former Congressman and former NAACP Chairman Kweisi Mfume beats Congressmna Ben Cardin in the Democrat Senate primary in Maryland, Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele goes from being a slight underdog to the favorite in the general election. Electing a conservative Republican Senator from Maryland would be historic, and the fact that Steele happens to be black would make it even more momentous. Given that blacks comprise a bit over 40% of the Democrat primary electorate in Maryland, that there are like 8 white candidates seeking the nomination, and that MD doesn't have a run-off if the first-place finisher in the primary gets below 50%, I think Kweisi Mfume has a good shot of winning the primary with around 40% of the vote.
1 posted on 04/17/2006 6:54:03 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
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To: JohnnyZ; fieldmarshaldj; Kuksool; Clintonfatigued; Dan from Michigan; Coop; Impy; LdSentinal; ...

*MICHAEL STEELE PING*

Here's to Maryland Democrat primary voters feeling Kweisi enough to nominate Mfume!


2 posted on 04/17/2006 6:56:15 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
Cardin is running a dog of a campaign.

They would have gotten better results running O'Malley for this seat, instead of allowing him to launch a gubernatorial campaign.

Something tells me that Cardin's political skills have atrophied.

Running in an overwhelmingly liberal, overwhelmingly white Dem. bastion for the past two decades isn't the best preparation for a highly competitive primary and/or general election.

3 posted on 04/17/2006 7:25:25 PM PDT by Do not dub me shapka broham ("The moment that someone wants to forbid caricatures, that is the moment we publish them.")
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Don't get your hopes up. Mfume won't win the primary.

That said, it might well be close enough to cause a serious rift that will help Steele in the general.

Just in case, I do encourage any R's to switch parties and vote in the D primary.



4 posted on 04/17/2006 11:08:35 PM PDT by zbigreddogz
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham; AuH2ORepublican

I find it remarkable that someone in consistent major elective office for 40 straight years (20 in the State House, 20 in the U.S. House) would jump into a Senate race to be a minority party backbencher as Cardin would be (contrasting 30 years ago when he was a powerful House Speaker). As is pointed out, he's never really had to wage a competitive race (I'm not sure even his '86 contest to succeed Babs Mikulski was competitive). He probably realizes this is his last hurrah to have an impact statewide (as he passed up a prime opportunity to run for Governor in '02).


5 posted on 04/18/2006 3:15:46 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican
203 days until election day.

http://www.steeleformaryland.com/


6 posted on 04/18/2006 4:07:07 AM PDT by Coop (Proud founding member of GCA - Gruntled Conservatives of America)
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To: zbigreddogz; Dane; Mom MD; RockinRight; MikefromOhio; NeoCaveman; southernnorthcarolina; ...

"Just in case, I do encourage any R's to switch parties and vote in the D primary."

Excellent idea! Are there any Freepers from Maryland? If so, register as a Democrat and vote for Kweisi Mfume so Michael Steele will win the general election for sure.


7 posted on 04/18/2006 11:13:09 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Bob Taft for Impeachment)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
I can understand his reasons for wanting to be in the U.S. Senate, but what I don't quite get is the Democrat Party's insistence that he is the best candidate for the office, especially when you have people like Stenny Hoyer, Mike Miller, and the former comptroller (attorney general?) waiting in the wings.

This looks like a seat that the Democrats are trying their best to lose, in spite of all the circumstances working in their favor.

8 posted on 04/18/2006 5:30:54 PM PDT by Do not dub me shapka broham ("The moment that someone wants to forbid caricatures, that is the moment we publish them.")
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican
"I can understand his reasons for wanting to be in the U.S. Senate, but what I don't quite get is the Democrat Party's insistence that he is the best candidate for the office, especially when you have people like Stenny Hoyer, Mike Miller, and the former comptroller (attorney general?) waiting in the wings."

I don't know about Mike Miller, the Senate President, but Hoyer would be stupid to give up his position as Minority Whip (especially given that he is in the catbird's seat to succeed Pelosi as House Dem leader, and hopes to become Speaker) after 25 years in the House. I'm not sure who the 3rd individual is of whom you speak, the former Comptroller was Louis Goldstein, who died in office in '98 and was succeeded by former Governor Bill Schaefer. The Attorney-General is Joe Curran, but he turns 75 in July, far too old to run for the Senate.

9 posted on 04/18/2006 9:52:55 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Maybe I was thinking of someone else.

My point was that there is still a deep pool of talent-or at least, there should be-in an overwhelmingly Dem. state like Maryland.

You figure that they could find at least one politician in that state who was more prepped to run in a competitive election.

Even Paris Glendening was able to pull out close victories, even if he needed a little extra voter fraud in order to do so.

Cardin is still the favorite-for now-and he's not quite the disaster that KKT was, still...

10 posted on 04/18/2006 10:06:33 PM PDT by Do not dub me shapka broham ("The moment that someone wants to forbid caricatures, that is the moment we publish them.")
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; Kuksool

There is a deep pool of Democrats in Maryland, to be sure, I dunno about the "talented" part. Talented I would call someone winning a tough contest in an area that might not necessarily share their views, but they're able to win them over, regardless. Most of the Dem pols either win by default or through winning gerrymandered tailor-made districts.

As has been mentioned many times before, the biggest problem the Democrats face is the anger by their large Black base, that they're not getting their fair share of opportunities to run for an win statewide offices. It's not enough they represent a Baltimore City district and heavily Black PG County in Congress, they want a Senate seat. But White Democrats also know that virtually none of the potential Black Dems that could run for statewide office are viable for a general election, since they tend to be polarizing figures (though Whites could win with virtually liberal ideologically identical candidates). They're trying to hold together a potentially explosive caldron of racially-based interests, and the Steele candidacy could end up being the spark that blows the joint sky-high.

This has always been the problem with Black voters putting all of their eggs in one basket -- they are always at the mercy of the Democrats (and similarly, representing such a huge and oft taken-for-granted bloc, the Democrats are solely at the mercy of Black voters). This is one allegiance that needs to be smashed with a jackhammer, for the good of the country, and for the good of Black folks that need liberation from the party of human bondage.


11 posted on 04/18/2006 11:12:33 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Astute analysis.
12 posted on 04/18/2006 11:48:21 PM PDT by Do not dub me shapka broham ("The moment that someone wants to forbid caricatures, that is the moment we publish them.")
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; Coop

Further down the page it is mentioned that the poll has 32% of likely Democrats viewing Ehrlich favorably. A very modest 40% of Dems view him disfavorably.

Does anyone recall what share of the Dem vote he got in '02? Is 32% enough?

While O'Malley has the nomination in the bag, it may yet get quite nasty between Duncan and he. A few desperate Hail Mary negative ads from Duncan would be a blessing.

I had the opportunity recently to speak to, if not the campaign manager per se, the de facto leader of the Ehrlich campaign. I gauged his awareness of the need for poll-watchers and whatever other defensive measures against vote fraud are feasible. I was impressed with his answer. The MD GOP is organizing a petition drive to put the veto-overridden early voting bill to a referendum. It is unclear whether the courts will allow it. The bill of course packs the early voting sites into heavily Democratic areas.

I am cautiously optimistic about both Ehrlich and Steele's chances. Maryland could be one of the most exciting places for a Republican to be this fall.


13 posted on 04/20/2006 8:29:29 PM PDT by ForOurFuture
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To: AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; Coop

Further down the page it is mentioned that the poll has 32% of likely Democrats viewing Ehrlich favorably. A very modest 40% of Dems view him disfavorably.

Does anyone recall what share of the Dem vote he got in '02? Is 32% enough?

While O'Malley has the nomination in the bag, it may yet get quite nasty between Duncan and he. A few desperate Hail Mary negative ads from Duncan would be a blessing.

I had the opportunity recently to speak to, if not the campaign manager per se, the de facto leader of the Ehrlich campaign. I gauged his awareness of the need for poll-watchers and whatever other defensive measures against vote fraud are feasible. I was impressed with his answer. The MD GOP is organizing a petition drive to put the veto-overridden early voting bill to a referendum. It is unclear whether the courts will allow it. The bill of course packs the early voting sites into heavily Democratic areas.

I am cautiously optimistic about both Ehrlich and Steele's chances. Maryland could be one of the most exciting places for a Republican to be this fall.


14 posted on 04/20/2006 8:29:42 PM PDT by ForOurFuture
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To: fieldmarshaldj
The Attorney-General is Joe Curran, but he turns 75 in July, far too old to run for the Senate.

Naaaaah. There's always South Carolina! :-)

15 posted on 04/21/2006 4:53:19 AM PDT by Coop (Proud founding member of GCA - Gruntled Conservatives of America)
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To: Coop

Well, I meant far too old to start a freshman term. Even ole Strom was only 52 when he began his Senate career. I wonder if he could've imagined he'd be sitting in the Senate past his 100th birthday.


16 posted on 04/21/2006 5:17:21 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: ForOurFuture; Clintonfatigued

Fraud, of course, remains the #1 concern. Ehrlich should exploit the fact that he is the sole check and balance on the Democrat state legislature, often a good argument to make in many states top heavy with one party or another.


17 posted on 04/21/2006 5:18:53 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

I knew what you meant. But it was still amusing. Can you imagine ol' Fritz Hollings having to wait until he was over 80 (IIRC) to become the senior senator from SC? Ouch!


18 posted on 04/21/2006 5:24:09 AM PDT by Coop (Proud founding member of GCA - Gruntled Conservatives of America)
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To: Coop

Bump for a later read!


19 posted on 04/21/2006 5:40:46 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican (everyone that doesn't like what America and President Bush has done for Iraq can all go to HELL)
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To: Coop; Clintonfatigued; JohnnyZ; AuH2ORepublican

Ole Strom had to wait only about 10 years to become the Senior Senator in 1964 when Olin Johnston died in office.

Hollings was all of 44 when he won the Senate seat and took office late in 1966 and had to wait a smidge over 36 years before becoming the Senior Senator at the age of 81 in January 2003.

Even Robert Byrd had to wait over a quarter-century to become the Senior Senator from his state when his colleague, Jennings Randolph, retired in 1985. Byrd & Randolph were both elected in the 'Rat landslide of '58, defeating a GOP incumbent and a GOP appointee, respectively (the last time WV had a GOP Senator), though because Randolph beat the appointee, he took office right away and Byrd had to wait until January of '59 (and he was all of 41 then) to assume office.

Hopefully Lindsey Graham will not be setting any records, despite quickly moving up to Senior Senator after only 2 years, as most of us are hoping he will be quickly dispatched by Tom Ravenel in 2008. I do hope the Junior Senator, Jim DeMint, settles in for a nice long spell, though (perhaps not too long, since after awhile, they do tend to become a part of the problem, with the exception of ole Jesse Helms). Alas, I doubt we're going to see too many of the likes of Thurmond, and Helms coming from our side of the aisle much anymore.


20 posted on 04/21/2006 5:55:48 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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