Posted on 08/10/2006 6:03:31 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman is not the only statewide incumbent who could lose his primary. Alaska's Republican Governor Frank Murkowski is also swept up in a blizzard of low poll numbers—to the extent that he has published full-page ads to admit that maybe he should "consider a personality transplant."
In the August 22 Republican primary Murkowski faces competition from businessman John Binkley and former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin. The Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Palin with 43%, Binkley with 30%, and Murkowski with 17% when likely voters consider a three-way match-up. Murkowski does badly with every group identified in the survey (see crosstabs).
If the Governor survives the primary, he would then square off with former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles, who leads Murkowski 58% to 29% in our survey. Murkowski does better than Knowles among Republicans and conservatives in this match-up, but still trails badly with other groups.
Palin leads Knowles 51% to 38% in a general election match-up. Knowles would be more competitive against Binkley, who leads the Democrat 46% to 44%, a toss-up.
Only 27% view Governor Murkowski him favorably. Murkowski is viewed unfavorably by 72%, "very" unfavorably by 49%.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
so what is the word on Palin?
Looks like Murkowski won't make it out of the primary. I'm surprised that he bothered to run at all.
My ADD prevents me from reading long articles. What is the main reason why the Gov is swirling the bowl?
Mostly broken promises.
hehehehehe
Sarah Palin is an awesome conservative and the clear choice for Alaska.
ok then... :)
Not only is Sarah Palin an awesome conservative, but she is the strongest candidate politically. She holds a clear lead over ex-Governor Tony Knowles.
Republicans get the best of both worlds with her.
I admire Murkowski, but we need a way to retire old pols gracefully.
The fear of Tony Knowles is overstated. Knowles lucked out TWICE by having a Republican (of whom lead throughout the campaign) implode during the '94 race and by having a crook win the GOP nomination in '98, drastically overinflating Knowles's likely performance against a more credible Republican. The fact he lost to Frank's baby girl, who was only a halfway credible candidate, was testament to that (though clearly Knowles could lick Frank now, who is, if I believe correctly, the most unpopular Governor in the nation).
Loren Leman ought to kick himself that he didn't challenge his boss, opting instead for retirement. Sarah Palin will prevail, and likely easily dispatch Knowles/Berkowitz.
"Looks like Murkowski won't make it out of the primary."
I don't think that Binkley will do that, but Palin is polling so well and Murkowski polling so poorly, I don't think it'll make any difference.
And DJ is on the money with regards to the future. Ted Stevens will surely retire in 2008 (when he's 85 y/o) and Palin would be a great candidate.
"Ted Stevens will surely retire in 2008 (when he's 85 y/o)"
Ted Stevens will serve until he's taken out feet-first, like the man he succeeded, Bob Bartlett (and he is assured of winning any and all reelections between now and then, as he is as revered a figure in Alaska as Thurmond was in SC and Byrd is in WV). Palin may be hemmed in as a result, because there will be considerable pressure for her to appoint Ben Stevens, the State Senate President (I would assume Ted will likely pass on before her second term ends in December 2014, when Stevens would be 91). I'd expect she might consider challenging Lisa Murkowski, although the other option is succeeding the other aging institution in Alaska, 73 year old and 33-year at-large House incumbent, Don Young (the only member of the fed delegation with no clear successor).
DJ, everyone was saying that Strom wouldn't finishhis term when he was elected at 88, and not only did he do it, he was reelected at 94. Now, Ted Stevens is no Strom (nobody is), but I wouldn't bet on him buying the farm before 2014.
If Stevens does die or retire prior to 2014, Palin could just name a caretaker Senator and let the primary voters face a clean slate of candidates. Maybe Ben Stevens can challenge Lisa Murkowski in 2010, and kill two birds with one stone.
As for Don Young, he won't retire anytime soon.
Don Young faces something that senior Senators don't: the House puts term limits on its committee chairs. Young was termed out of one committee and doesn't have all that much time on the one he chairs now, so I don't expect he'll be in Congress a whole lot longer.
He's already been there 33 years, I've heard no mention that he intends to retire anytime soon. He may ride it out like Stevens, committee chair or no.
Murky has been running with a bad crowd.
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