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GOP hopes to reclaim (Kansas) 2nd Congressional District seat
The Lawrence Journal-World ^ | January 30, 2007 | Scott Rothschild

Posted on 02/02/2007 5:40:02 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

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To: Clintonfatigued
Well, if Republicans cut each other up here as they've done with the Johnson County seat, this could be another GOP seat flipped to the Dems for the foreseeable future.
21 posted on 02/02/2007 10:38:47 PM PST by colorado tanker
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To: California Patriot
The fact that former Congressman Ryun wants to run again (also, Jeb Bradley, who lost his seat in NH), is at least an encouraging sign that what the pros call "quality candidates" (people with high name recognition and experience) on our side may be willing to run in '08. Even if Ryun isn't that good, he's a better-quality candidate than most unknowns or barely-knowns would be.

Ryun is damaged goods. He's had some ethical questions with the purchase of his Washington townhouse. He got caught lying during the 2006 campaign when he denied knowing Mark Foley very well and said he didn't know that Foley had lived across the street from him for years and then if came out that he and Foley had hosted block parties together. Finally he got so comfortable in office that he pretty much ignored the district for most of his last term or two. If we are going to retake Congress we will not do it with the same old tired faces that lost Congress in the first place. It would be far better if a new conservative candidate ran in 2008.

22 posted on 02/03/2007 5:02:34 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: Clintonfatigued
I wish that state Senator Jim Barnet would run (he's from the southwestern part of the district), but there is no evidence that he's interested.

Barnett may be a good choice. But there's a criminal investigation going on right now into his 2006 gubernatorial campaign and we'll have to see what happens there.

23 posted on 02/03/2007 5:13:11 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: colorado tanker
Well, if Republicans cut each other up here as they've done with the Johnson County seat, this could be another GOP seat flipped to the Dems for the foreseeable future.

Which is why Kobach has to pull his head out of his butt, drop Ryun, find a solid Republican candidate in the district, and avoid a primary fight. Boyda will never be more vulnerable than she will be in her first reelection campaign.

24 posted on 02/03/2007 5:15:23 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: Clintonfatigued

I disagree. Ryun was a good man who got caught flat footed. NOBODY, even the most pessimistic pundits, thought he was in trouble, and nobody thought Sebellius would win as big as she did.

He'll trounce him next time around.


25 posted on 02/03/2007 9:45:06 AM PST by zbigreddogz
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To: fieldmarshaldj; colorado tanker; Non-Sequitur; feedback doctor

Here is an idea. If damaged goods Jim Ryun and RINO Lynn Jenkins are the only Republicans who run, support Jenkins just once, and dispatch her in the 2010 primary.

And to those who say that Jenkins would become entrenched, I have two words- Joe Schwarz.


26 posted on 02/03/2007 10:06:40 AM PST by Clintonfatigued (If the GOP were to stop worshiping Free Trade as if it were a religion, they'd win every election)
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To: zbigreddogz

"He'll trounce him next time around."

I didn't know that Nancy Boyda was a man.


27 posted on 02/03/2007 10:07:51 AM PST by Clintonfatigued (If the GOP were to stop worshiping Free Trade as if it were a religion, they'd win every election)
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To: Clintonfatigued
If damaged goods Jim Ryun and RINO Lynn Jenkins are the only Republicans who run, support Jenkins just once, and dispatch her in the 2010 primary.

Primary battles in this state tend to favor the Democrats since the losing Republican faction has a habit of sitting out the general election. If Kobach wants to make a success of his time as head of the Kansas GOP he needs to get the 2nd District back. Which means he needs to make sure the party lines up behind one, electable candidate regardless of which wing they come from. And if Kobach wants to run for the Senate in 2010 he has to make a success of his time as head. The 2008 election's all he's got.

28 posted on 02/03/2007 10:48:19 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: Clintonfatigued; BlackElk; AuH2ORepublican

Problem is, Republican incumbents in KS don't tend to lose renomination except when seats are eliminated at reapportionment time (such as freshmen Dick Nichols in '92 & Walter McVey in '62). The last time an incumbent was defeated in a primary absent that was Thomas Winter in 1946. The last time a freshman was defeated for renomination was William Ripley Brown in 1876. Simply put, if Jenkins wins, it is highly unlikely she'll be defeated except at a general election.

The example of Joe Schwarz was a unique instance when a highly unpopular and divisive candidate took the nomination because of a lack of a runoff, and it was readily apparent in a 2-man race, he'd never have won, and with his reelection, that proved correct. From what I can tell of Jenkins, it's her social liberalism that is wrong, though she herself may be considered likeable (such as with Vince Snowbarger's predecessor, Jan Meyers, or even Nancy Kassebaum). It's why we need to stop her from winning the nomination in the first place.


29 posted on 02/03/2007 11:17:50 AM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Then the only option is for KS conservatives to find a conservative alternative to Ryun.


30 posted on 02/03/2007 11:20:27 AM PST by Clintonfatigued (If the GOP were to stop worshiping Free Trade as if it were a religion, they'd win every election)
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To: Non-Sequitur

Well then, he may be a worse-quality candidate. Time for someone else to step up to the plate. It would be pathetic not to take this district back in '08.


31 posted on 02/03/2007 4:26:04 PM PST by California Patriot ("That's not Charlie the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: California Patriot
Well then, he may be a worse-quality candidate. Time for someone else to step up to the plate. It would be pathetic not to take this district back in '08.

What if it's Lynn Jenkins?

32 posted on 02/04/2007 6:36:34 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: Non-Sequitur

So be it. She will help us elect a Republican speaker and all that.

What we can't have is two conservative candidates if she runs. If Ryun can beat her in the primary, maybe he can win the general too. If he can't, then she's probably the better general-election candidate. Hopefully, if Jenkins runs, a popular conservative will also run and get Ryun to drop out.

All in all, it sounds like a sticky situation.


33 posted on 02/04/2007 1:01:37 PM PST by California Patriot ("That's not Charlie the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: California Patriot
If Ryun can beat her in the primary, maybe he can win the general too.

Having been rejected in the 2006 election why should we believe he can come back and win in 2007? I admit I haven't looked into it in any great detail, but I don't believe that the track record of politicians who were turned out of their office in one election then ran and were elected back to the same office in the next general election is very good.

All in all, it sounds like a sticky situation.

Indeed. They say that all politics is local, and it's no different here. We're paying the penalty for having a divided party and contested primaries are quite often the kiss of death. Roughly half the Republicans out here are people who think exactly like some of those who have posted on this very thread. The whole idea of the Republican party being a big tent is absolutely rejected by them. Unless you march in lockstep with them on abortion and creationism in schools and each and every issue they support you will get branded a liberal RINO apostate. Well, as you might imagine members of the more moderate wing of the party don't react well to being told that they aren't real Republicans. So you have the situation where if the candidate of one faction wins the primary then the supporters of the other faction either sit out the election or support the Democrat. It's cost us election after election, and could have cost more. And Kris Kobach isn't going to change it.

34 posted on 02/04/2007 2:08:05 PM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: Non-Sequitur

I know, it's a badly divided party in Kansas. I don't know enough about the Ryun situation to know how weak he is, or how strong Boyda may be. What matters most is beating her. What matters secondarily, but still importantly, is beating her with a real conservative.

I tend to agree that running a previously defeated congressman is not usually the best way to go. The best solution would perhaps be for a strong conservative (who is also a political powerhouse with high name recognition) to quickly soak up a large majority of the conservative support and money, leaving Ryun unable to run credibly in the primary.


35 posted on 02/04/2007 2:37:06 PM PST by California Patriot ("That's not Charlie the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: California Patriot
I don't know enough about the Ryun situation to know how weak he is, or how strong Boyda may be. What matters most is beating her. What matters secondarily, but still importantly, is beating her with a real conservative.

I don't live in the second district but I know people who do. Ryun had basically ignored the district for the last couple of years. And he got caught lying about Mark Foley. He claimed in public that he barely knew the man when they lived next door to each other and hosted block parties together. So I honestly think that Ryun is toast and that a new face is needed to win the seat back.

How strong Boyda is will remain to be seen. An incumbant is always most vulnerable in their first re-election. A lot will also depend on how she does in the next two year in office. She sponsored H.R. 476 which denies pensions to congressmen or senators convicted of bribery, perjury, or conspiracy charges and it passed 431 to 0. Not a bad start for a freshman from either party.

One thing we cannot assume is that Boyda is stupid. She is not. Regardless of who we run against her, she will be a tough opponent and if the GOP is going to take the district back we can't afford a bruising primary fight. The new head of the Kansas GOP has to show some leadership.

36 posted on 02/04/2007 2:55:25 PM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: Non-Sequitur

Yes, Democrats know how to hold vulnerable seats. They are experts at this. Ryun seems to have goofed badly, and that isn't easily forgiven, considering the stakes in the '08 election especially.


37 posted on 02/04/2007 3:46:15 PM PST by California Patriot ("That's not Charlie the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: Non-Sequitur
Boyda will never be more vulnerable than she will be in her first reelection campaign.

No question about that. Gotta get 'em out before the incumbency protection machine kicks in.

38 posted on 02/05/2007 9:57:43 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: Clintonfatigued

I live in Jim Ryun's district and voted for him. I plan to support him again this time. The woman who wants to run is pro abortion (who I will not vote for as I am first and foremost Pro Life). It wouldn't surprise me if she did get the nod though as the GOP is starting to embrace Pro Choice candidates even here in Kansas.


39 posted on 02/09/2007 10:52:33 AM PST by Brownback08
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