Posted on 06/13/2007 5:31:31 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg (R) is set to announce his candidacy against Cong. Melissa Bean (D) in Illinois's 8th District.
GOP insiders believe the 8th District is one of their top ten opportunities in the country, particularly since Bean won reelection last year with 51% in the Democratic wave. There was a liberal third-party candidate who took 5% as well. In 2004, President Bush won the suburban Chicago district 55%-44%, while Bean was defeating Cong. Phil Crane (R).
Greenberg, 36, had previously been mentioned as a potential challenger to Sen. Dick Durbin (D), but he has his sights set on Congress instead. The Republican specializes in turning around corporations and his family owns the Ben Franklin stores.
Greenberg is also a former minor league hockey player, coming up through the Washington Capitals organization with goalie Olie Kolzig, until an injury shortened his career.
(Excerpt) Read more at rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com ...
This is very good news. I think that Greenberg has what it takes.
Where is this district?
I still wish Pete Fitzgerald would make a political comeback here.
Greenburg sounds like another David McSweeny, a businessman who ran a novice campaign. That said, better Greenburg than Kathy Salvi.
My uninformed guess it that the GOP suits are targeting this as one of their top districts because they like the guy who’s running. That they like the guy who’s running because he’s their kind of guy: a political inexperienced, rich, corporate type. Voters don’t normally go for these candidates, when they run as Republicans, anyway. But Republican establishmentarians do.
Look at the numbers. Bean, as a vulnerable freshman, got 51 percent. 5 percent to a leftist third-party candidate. That’s a 56 percent combined vote for the liberals, in a district the GOP targeted heavily. Meanwhile, in ‘08, Bean will have had two more years to cement her reputation for “taking care of the district,” being a “moderate,” being “pro-business,” being “pragmatic,” etc.
This district is gone, folks.
BTW, the article understated the IL-08’s GOP lean by a smidgen. President Bush carried it 56%-44% in 2004 and by 56%-42% in 2000.
With all due respect, you’re being far too pessimistic here. Remember, there was not a single federal Democrat who lost reelection to a Republican last November, and no retiring Democrat seat was captured by a Republican, either. That hasn’t happened in the history of the GOP (every election since after 1856). To pronounce a district that IS Republican electing a Democrat under unusual circumstances and bolstered for reelection by a national tide “totally gone” for us is highly short-sighted.
A 56 percent liberal vote in a district the GOP targeted heavily is pretty impressive. I agree it was artificially inflated by the terrible climate for Republicans. But you’ve ignored the rest of my post: The point that endangered incumbents work hard to become better known in the district. Once a House incumbent has been re-elected once, the chances of defeating him or her go way, way down.
No, I saw the rest of it, but I made my main point. Bean caught some serious breaks, but this is still a Republican district. 2006 was an anomaly, and she still barely held on. If any other Republican (other than Phil Crane) had won the nomination in 2004, they’d be sitting in that seat today. She has yet to face a test against a non-damaged Republican in a more normal evenly-balanced political year. If she can clear 2008 (if ‘08 isn’t another lousy year for us), it will be easier sailing for her as an incumbent, but she can’t take that seat for granted at any election.
To address your other point of a 56% liberal/left combined vote, that can also be deceptive, especially because of the situation last year. GOP turnout was down, and sometimes all of those leftists will not necessarily cast their lot exclusively with a Democrat in a future election. Sometimes they’ll only come out for a specific candidate or not vote at all. Same goes with Libertarian voters or even Conservative voters. If next year Bean openly tries to appeal to those far-left voters who voted 3rd party in ‘06, she will seriously imperil support from those on the center-right, for whom she obviously received votes.
We’ll see what happens in the district. The sad fact is, many people compartmentalize their Congress member and split their tickets. This is especially true in Republican districts. I would be astounded if Bean is defeated in ‘08.
(Another reason for my pessimism, by the way, is that the GOP in Illinois has been in decline for many, many years. The “brand” has gone pretty stale.)
True, and this was largely the reason why the Democrats were able to hold Congress as long as they did. It changed a bit once we finally won it back. Interesting, and rather sad, that the Democrats can technically win virtually any House or Senate district in the U.S., but the Republicans are shut out right off the bat for around 150 House districts, so it is always an uphill climb for us. That's why in districts where the support for the GOP Presidential ticket is over 55% (which includes IL-8), there's no excuse for us not to ruthlessly and mercilessly target and destroy any Democrats sitting in those seats.
"I would be astounded if Bean is defeated in ‘08."
It all depends upon the political climate, but the GOP is quite determined to take a seat back that rightly belongs to them. Back in January, I'd have said that the Democrats had an uphill climb to retain Congress, because of the far-left moonbattery of the bulk of its leaders, which would seriously damage those members clearly representing Republican districts, but with the President and Congress embarking on this shamnesty path, we may end up profoundly damaged going into the '08 cycle, even with the Democrats at extremely low approval ratings. Bean shouldn't survive this next cycle, but with things the way they are now...
"(Another reason for my pessimism, by the way, is that the GOP in Illinois has been in decline for many, many years. The “brand” has gone pretty stale.)"
That's true, too. But we're rather fortunate that the likes of Topinka, the Queen RINO of the Combine, didn't get the Governorship. If the IL GOP gets its act together, especially now with the rodents in absolute control of state government, they might actually be able to battle back again. Whether they "get it" is another question. We do have such incredible stupidity on our side, especially amongst the leadership.
Full Rat control in Illinois probably does represent an opportunity for the state’s GOP to get its act together. I’m betting against it, but we’ll see. Likewise, I have little hope that we can destroy Bean, but more power to ‘em.
I have more good news out of Illinois:
Ray LaHood is thinking of becoming President of Bradley University, which means that he would resign. I wouldn’t miss him.
Good. One less Main Street Garbage member.
Indeed. Good riddance to the Enforcer for the RINORodent Combine.
The district still leans Republican, although Democrats are gaining ground in that area.
Yes, LaHood is part of the problem. Has been for years.
That’s an understatement. I hold LaThug personally responsible for running Pete Fitzgerald out of the Senate. No reformers are tolerated in the IL GOP, and if it means electing rodents to protect their turf, so be it.
Suburban Chicago. North and northwest of the city.
So Obama owes his election and his 08 candidacy to LaHood. Another reason not to like the guy.
I lived in the district for a long time, but that was 14 years ago. I have no idea how it, or anywhere else in Illinois lean anymore. As for Greenburg, first time candidates are like the little girl with the little curl in the middle of her forehead. When they are good they're very, very good. And when they're bad, they're horrid. I don't know him or anything about him. He's probably got enough money to run a decent campaign so the GOP should get behind him and avoid a primary fight.
Remember, if the Republicans are going to sink money into the election then you can be damned sure that the Democrats will as well. It'll be a question of who has the most money to fund all the races on their must-win list.
Good point. And the previous GOP nominee there was damaged by a grueling primary, which helped Bean in November. Hopefully, Greenberg can avoid that problem.
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