Skip to comments.Fred Thompson Forces Longer Odds on Rudy Giuliani
Posted on 10/02/2007 1:29:41 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
All bets are on Fred Thompson, well at least enough to push Rudy Giuliani from 3-1 to 5-1, thus no longer making the one time New York City Mayor a favorite. This announcement from Sportsbook.com comes in conjunction with the slashing of Ron Paul odds from 8-1 to 6-1.
Fred Thompson opened with 4-1 odds even before his Presidential candidacy was officially announced, however, this is the first time that Giuliani is not listed as the favorite. John McCain remained with 5-1 odds and Mitt Romney sat with 8-1 odds. McCain is believed to have enjoyed early action at Sportsbook.com while bets on Thompson now surpass that of Giuliani.
"Obviously, if you believe the polls and think that Giuliani is leading among Republicans, these are the best payout odds you will find on him to date," said Payton O'Brien, Senior Editor of Gambling911.com.
Previously Giuliani hit a peak of 3 to 1 odds. His current payout potential is $500 for every $100 bet.
The short version of it is: the people willing to place their money where their mouths are are shying away from Guiliani. The overall picture is pretty much a muddle, essentially a five person race (including Ron Paul?!) with odds all centered about 5-to-1, or a 20% probability, ranging from 4-to-1 (25%) to 6-to-1 (17%).
Now... what does it really mean? In general, the "betting" sites offer a better picture of the race than the polls, because they're more forward-looking. However, they are subject to manipulation -- it's not necessarily that Ron Paul, for example, really has a 17% chance of winning, that's just the number at which they can draw an equal number of bets for and against.
It means that Fred is now the favorite at 4:1.
Rudy and McCain tied for 2nd at 5:1; Ron Paul at 6:1, Romney at 8:1. The Ron Paul odds show how subjective this is.
(Chart should update day-to-day) (RROF=Republican, rest of field - they split Fred out of this in June)