Posted on 12/21/2007 2:24:43 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Almost as I'd thought. The endorsement of Rep. King has begun having an impact in the Iowa poll numbers and the Thompson campaign is on the move according to this latest Strategic Vision poll.
- Huckabee -31%
- Romney - 25%
- Thompson - 16%
The anomaly in this poll right now is Huckabee (another post on that later) who when this poll was taken was at 31%. I have not heard the entire show, however the internet is abuzz with Rush's cremation of Huckabee (and for good reason...again more on that later).
Huckabee's numbers are going to plummet down to around 12%. Now where does that 19% go?
I think that if you have the favorite son of Iowa Republicans (Rep. King) stumping for you then you stand a great chance of picking up A LOT of that support. It would be like Cathy McMorris-Rogers stumping for you on the eastside of Washington State or Congressman Gregg Walden stumping for you in Oregon.
Remember King's endorsement was more than just a simple letter or statement of support. He is actually WORKING for Thompson on the ground.
I think the Huckabee support will, as I had predicted earlier, winnow away and the Hawkeye Cauckeye will end up something like this:
- Romney - 28%
-Thompson - 21%
-McCain - 12%
Now I would be happy to be wrong and see Thompson pick up a lot more than that and actually beat Romney but Romney has a ton of resources there and one cannot underestimate the Mormon support that will show up on a cold night in January.
Either way I think the third place finisher will be sufficiently far enough behind so as to be considered a non-factor and the top story will end up being that Fred is back and that Huckabee is toast.
Leaving the gates open for what I was calling the South Carolina cage match.
I was thinking about starting a thread calling for some South Carolina Republican insider insight. Before I do that perhaps I'll put the call out here just in case.
So... Any South Carolina Republicans wanna share with us what is happening on the ground down there?
UPDATE: I just heard from one political observer that they don't think this poll fully captures the effects of the King endorsement. That is takes a couple days for events like that to work their way into the electorate.
Huckabee is still doing the religious circuit very effectively and reaching people who vote. Getting lots of air time on TBN and other religious networks. I wouldn’t count him out. Very good talker and sounds like a very intelligent and likable guy, especially when he is not talking his specific stances on issues.
Huck is an emotional protest vote. People don’t want to think logically about the consequences of their decisions. It’s hard to beat that.
Sounds like Fred needs to get on the religious networks.
Predicting that Huckabee will drop from the huge leader to 4th place in two weeks is rather bold.
Actually, I’m being very kind.
OK, let’s see if I am reading this right? The author thinks that the Huckabee numbers are wrong, but WOW look how good Fred is doing? If one set of numbers are skewed (Hucks) then aren’t the rest?
This poll also seems to be an outlier, although the way Iowa goes is impossible to know. But looking at recent polls in Iowa, within the past week, only one other poll has Fred in the double digits.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html
I think Huck may sink to second, but I absolutely cannot see him out of the Iowa race within the next 1 1/2 weeks.
Fred is also loosing ground in South Carolina, so if he does not finish strong in Iowa, and win in SC he is done!!!!
I neve thought that Iowa would be this interesting, but it sure is shaping up to be an exciting day. Here’s to Huck dropping like socks on a chicken!
Huck’s people getting snarky at Rush might just do him in.
Yeah, he probably does.
Mitt and Huck are unabashedly using their respective churches to get voters.
It makes me a little ill to use religion like that.
That said, Thompson is a Christian, and he could wear it on his sleeve -— A LITTLE BIT -— just go to Church Christmas Eve with the family and let his picture get taken.
He is Church of Christ, IIRC. Any FReepers in that denomination?
Salier is a biggie.
I would wager that if you saw the internal polling the candidates have at their disposal, you’d be pleasantly surprised at how well FRed is doing.
I am.
I could call 400 “likely” republican voters and get whatever results I am paid to get. And, since I have manned the phones several times, I also know even the inflection of my voice on certain words can affect the respondents response.
If the PTP want to “push” a candidate down, they can. Ron Paul is a prime example of that. I had a phone poller actually chuckle when she asked...”Regarding Ron {chuckle} Paul, what are your...” In all fairness, I chuckled with her. LOL
The polls are very mixed now. Fred is doing something the others haven’t done which is going almost directly to the local Iowa media. He has his record, he has his policy statements, now he’s getting the best conduit to the people in Iowa. Combine that with some materials that have been telling people the truch about Huck and I think he’s in a reasonable position to make a big move here.
If Huck does start dropping and we’ve seen some signs of it already, it will be fast and will take away half of his support in a week, IMHO. Romney has more solid support, but I don’t think the people who left him for Huck will go directly back, many will end up with Fred.
It’s a wide open race at the moment, so now is the time to make sure people know the truth about the candidates. If people are aware of the truth, I think Fred wins the whole thing.
Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
WARNING: If you wish to join, be aware that this ping list is EXTREMELY active.
Care to share?
Perhaps on Tuesday I can. :)
Ironically I have a friend in Iowa who is in that denomination, and he is voting for Huckabee, for get this: “Huckabee is ahead in the polls, and I can’t find anything I don’t like about him.” Then he called me pathetic for still supporting Fred Thompson.
Oh we got into a IM fight, no doubt about it. I brought up the Hucksters record, and basically schooled him, then he replied, “Oh well, Thompson is good, but he won’t win this time around. I am still voting for Mike.” I replied, “Well I think this is Thompson’s only chance.” My friend quickly changed the subject. Hopefully I have changed his mind, I haven’t talked to him since.
Christmas?
Okay. I can wait that long.
Just ping me if you decide to share.
;-)
sitetest
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