Posted on 12/21/2007 2:24:43 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Almost as I'd thought. The endorsement of Rep. King has begun having an impact in the Iowa poll numbers and the Thompson campaign is on the move according to this latest Strategic Vision poll.
- Huckabee -31%
- Romney - 25%
- Thompson - 16%
The anomaly in this poll right now is Huckabee (another post on that later) who when this poll was taken was at 31%. I have not heard the entire show, however the internet is abuzz with Rush's cremation of Huckabee (and for good reason...again more on that later).
Huckabee's numbers are going to plummet down to around 12%. Now where does that 19% go?
I think that if you have the favorite son of Iowa Republicans (Rep. King) stumping for you then you stand a great chance of picking up A LOT of that support. It would be like Cathy McMorris-Rogers stumping for you on the eastside of Washington State or Congressman Gregg Walden stumping for you in Oregon.
Remember King's endorsement was more than just a simple letter or statement of support. He is actually WORKING for Thompson on the ground.
I think the Huckabee support will, as I had predicted earlier, winnow away and the Hawkeye Cauckeye will end up something like this:
- Romney - 28%
-Thompson - 21%
-McCain - 12%
Now I would be happy to be wrong and see Thompson pick up a lot more than that and actually beat Romney but Romney has a ton of resources there and one cannot underestimate the Mormon support that will show up on a cold night in January.
Either way I think the third place finisher will be sufficiently far enough behind so as to be considered a non-factor and the top story will end up being that Fred is back and that Huckabee is toast.
Leaving the gates open for what I was calling the South Carolina cage match.
I was thinking about starting a thread calling for some South Carolina Republican insider insight. Before I do that perhaps I'll put the call out here just in case.
So... Any South Carolina Republicans wanna share with us what is happening on the ground down there?
UPDATE: I just heard from one political observer that they don't think this poll fully captures the effects of the King endorsement. That is takes a couple days for events like that to work their way into the electorate.
The GOP voters can either nominate Fred Thompson who brings all of the factions of the GOP big tent together...limited government, strong national defense, fiscal conservative, social conservative....or tear the Reagan coalition apart and lose 45 states by nominating someone who appeals to only one faction. It’s up to the voters. It’s that simple.
A Christmas present!!
Recall that Bob Dole (37%) and Pat Robertson (25%) were the big winners there in 1988 (leaving Bush 41 in the dust at 19%).
The real test for Thompson will be in primaries, where the results aren't so easily influenced by the campaign organizations.
FRedHeads have been good so we get a good present. Go Fred!
I’ve been REALLY good. I want the NRA endorsement. :)
I must admit that would be a fine present. I honestly think if he shows well in Iowa we just might get it.
We are seeing a great abundance of good news for Fred coming out of Iowa and I'm really getting jazzed.
I am a member, and please don’t refer to us as a denomination. [ I know you don’t know that, I can’t let that pass.] You will not find Christmas Eve services for the church of Christ of Fred’s background or mine.
I hope he goes to church on Sunday however.
“The GOP voters can either nominate Fred Thompson who brings all of the factions of the GOP big tent together...limited government, strong national defense, fiscal conservative, social conservative....or tear the Reagan coalition apart and lose 45 states by nominating someone who appeals to only one faction. It’s up to the voters. It’s that simple.”
Worth quoting!
Second place in Iowa would be huge for Fred. Even a strong third (20% plus) would be big.
It is that simple.
Strong second, possible first.
We are talking about Fred Thompson here guys. If he was doing well in the polls I would be nervous...
With no help from the MSM. They are trying hard to ignore him.
He could campaign for 72 straight hours with no sleep and the MSM will still say he is lazy. The sheeple weren’t there to see it. They only know what the media reports.
I am content that he is doing what he does best, getting people to vote for him.
sheeple listen to polls. That is why the MSM tried to tell the sheeple that Bush was losing to Kerry by a landslide that November morning in 2004. The hope was that the sheeple would listen and not bother to show up.
And that worked out so well for them...
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