Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Thompson Coming On In Iowa
The NW Republican ^ | December 21, 2007

Posted on 12/21/2007 2:24:43 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Almost as I'd thought. The endorsement of Rep. King has begun having an impact in the Iowa poll numbers and the Thompson campaign is on the move according to this latest Strategic Vision poll.

- Huckabee -31%
- Romney - 25%
- Thompson - 16%

The anomaly in this poll right now is Huckabee (another post on that later) who when this poll was taken was at 31%. I have not heard the entire show, however the internet is abuzz with Rush's cremation of Huckabee (and for good reason...again more on that later).

Huckabee's numbers are going to plummet down to around 12%. Now where does that 19% go?

I think that if you have the favorite son of Iowa Republicans (Rep. King) stumping for you then you stand a great chance of picking up A LOT of that support. It would be like Cathy McMorris-Rogers stumping for you on the eastside of Washington State or Congressman Gregg Walden stumping for you in Oregon.

Remember King's endorsement was more than just a simple letter or statement of support. He is actually WORKING for Thompson on the ground.

I think the Huckabee support will, as I had predicted earlier, winnow away and the Hawkeye Cauckeye will end up something like this:

- Romney - 28%
-Thompson - 21%
-McCain - 12%

Now I would be happy to be wrong and see Thompson pick up a lot more than that and actually beat Romney but Romney has a ton of resources there and one cannot underestimate the Mormon support that will show up on a cold night in January.

Either way I think the third place finisher will be sufficiently far enough behind so as to be considered a non-factor and the top story will end up being that Fred is back and that Huckabee is toast.

Leaving the gates open for what I was calling the South Carolina cage match.

I was thinking about starting a thread calling for some South Carolina Republican insider insight. Before I do that perhaps I'll put the call out here just in case.

So... Any South Carolina Republicans wanna share with us what is happening on the ground down there?

UPDATE: I just heard from one political observer that they don't think this poll fully captures the effects of the King endorsement. That is takes a couple days for events like that to work their way into the electorate.


TOPICS: Arkansas; Iowa; South Carolina; Tennessee; Campaign News; Parties; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: election; electionpresident; elections; endorsements; evangelicals; fred; fredthompson; gomerpyle; gop; huckabee; ia2008; mikehuckabee; mitt; mittromney; religion; republicans; romney; rush; rushlimbaugh; sc2008; southernstrategy; steveking; talkradio; thompson
I hope they're right.
1 posted on 12/21/2007 2:24:44 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Huckabee is still doing the religious circuit very effectively and reaching people who vote. Getting lots of air time on TBN and other religious networks. I wouldn’t count him out. Very good talker and sounds like a very intelligent and likable guy, especially when he is not talking his specific stances on issues.


2 posted on 12/21/2007 2:29:46 PM PST by Always Right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Always Right

Huck is an emotional protest vote. People don’t want to think logically about the consequences of their decisions. It’s hard to beat that.


3 posted on 12/21/2007 2:36:10 PM PST by Romneyfor President2008
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Always Right

Sounds like Fred needs to get on the religious networks.


4 posted on 12/21/2007 2:38:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Predicting that Huckabee will drop from the huge leader to 4th place in two weeks is rather bold.

Actually, I’m being very kind.


5 posted on 12/21/2007 2:41:40 PM PST by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

OK, let’s see if I am reading this right? The author thinks that the Huckabee numbers are wrong, but WOW look how good Fred is doing? If one set of numbers are skewed (Hucks) then aren’t the rest?
This poll also seems to be an outlier, although the way Iowa goes is impossible to know. But looking at recent polls in Iowa, within the past week, only one other poll has Fred in the double digits.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

I think Huck may sink to second, but I absolutely cannot see him out of the Iowa race within the next 1 1/2 weeks.
Fred is also loosing ground in South Carolina, so if he does not finish strong in Iowa, and win in SC he is done!!!!


6 posted on 12/21/2007 2:48:57 PM PST by codercpc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I neve thought that Iowa would be this interesting, but it sure is shaping up to be an exciting day. Here’s to Huck dropping like socks on a chicken!


7 posted on 12/21/2007 2:49:13 PM PST by HerrBlucher (He's the coolest thing around, gonna shut HRC down, gonna turn it on, wind it up, blow em out, FDT!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: codercpc

Huck’s people getting snarky at Rush might just do him in.


8 posted on 12/21/2007 3:06:26 PM PST by Free Vulcan (Friends don't let friends vote Huckabee)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yeah, he probably does.

Mitt and Huck are unabashedly using their respective churches to get voters.

It makes me a little ill to use religion like that.

That said, Thompson is a Christian, and he could wear it on his sleeve -— A LITTLE BIT -— just go to Church Christmas Eve with the family and let his picture get taken.


9 posted on 12/21/2007 3:12:48 PM PST by TheThirdRuffian
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: TheThirdRuffian; All

He is Church of Christ, IIRC. Any FReepers in that denomination?


10 posted on 12/21/2007 3:14:28 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Today Tancredo chairman, Bill Salier endorsed Thompson, as well as Angie Anderson, who also worked for Tancredo.

Salier is a biggie.

11 posted on 12/21/2007 3:16:46 PM PST by Conservativegreatgrandma
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Politicalmom; jellybean; Josh Painter; ejonesie22; papasmurf; Bobbisox; DesScorp; thefactor; ...
FRED PING!!

Fred08 - Contribute Now

12 posted on 12/21/2007 3:20:54 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I would wager that if you saw the internal polling the candidates have at their disposal, you’d be pleasantly surprised at how well FRed is doing.

I am.


13 posted on 12/21/2007 4:11:21 PM PST by papasmurf (FRed Thompson is head and shoulders above the rest. Vote for America, vote for FRed!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: codercpc

I could call 400 “likely” republican voters and get whatever results I am paid to get. And, since I have manned the phones several times, I also know even the inflection of my voice on certain words can affect the respondents response.

If the PTP want to “push” a candidate down, they can. Ron Paul is a prime example of that. I had a phone poller actually chuckle when she asked...”Regarding Ron {chuckle} Paul, what are your...” In all fairness, I chuckled with her. LOL


14 posted on 12/21/2007 4:17:56 PM PST by papasmurf (FRed Thompson is head and shoulders above the rest. Vote for America, vote for FRed!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The polls are very mixed now. Fred is doing something the others haven’t done which is going almost directly to the local Iowa media. He has his record, he has his policy statements, now he’s getting the best conduit to the people in Iowa. Combine that with some materials that have been telling people the truch about Huck and I think he’s in a reasonable position to make a big move here.

If Huck does start dropping and we’ve seen some signs of it already, it will be fast and will take away half of his support in a week, IMHO. Romney has more solid support, but I don’t think the people who left him for Huck will go directly back, many will end up with Fred.

It’s a wide open race at the moment, so now is the time to make sure people know the truth about the candidates. If people are aware of the truth, I think Fred wins the whole thing.


15 posted on 12/21/2007 4:22:18 PM PST by phothus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: jellybean; Politicalmom; girlangler; KoRn; Shortstop7; Lunatic Fringe; Darnright; babygene; ...
PING!!

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference

WARNING: If you wish to join, be aware that this ping list is EXTREMELY active.

16 posted on 12/21/2007 4:24:49 PM PST by Politicalmom (Huckabee’s experience with foreign policy consists of eating at the International House of Pancakes.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: papasmurf

Care to share?


17 posted on 12/21/2007 4:45:36 PM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: sitetest

Perhaps on Tuesday I can. :)


18 posted on 12/21/2007 4:51:52 PM PST by papasmurf (FRed Thompson is head and shoulders above the rest. Vote for America, vote for FRed!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ironically I have a friend in Iowa who is in that denomination, and he is voting for Huckabee, for get this: “Huckabee is ahead in the polls, and I can’t find anything I don’t like about him.” Then he called me pathetic for still supporting Fred Thompson.

Oh we got into a IM fight, no doubt about it. I brought up the Hucksters record, and basically schooled him, then he replied, “Oh well, Thompson is good, but he won’t win this time around. I am still voting for Mike.” I replied, “Well I think this is Thompson’s only chance.” My friend quickly changed the subject. Hopefully I have changed his mind, I haven’t talked to him since.


19 posted on 12/21/2007 4:55:54 PM PST by RatsDawg (Hsu out the Democrats in 2008!, Go Hsu-less vote GOP)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: papasmurf
Dear papasmurf,

Christmas?

Okay. I can wait that long.

Just ping me if you decide to share.

;-)


sitetest

20 posted on 12/21/2007 4:56:40 PM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Politicalmom

The GOP voters can either nominate Fred Thompson who brings all of the factions of the GOP big tent together...limited government, strong national defense, fiscal conservative, social conservative....or tear the Reagan coalition apart and lose 45 states by nominating someone who appeals to only one faction. It’s up to the voters. It’s that simple.


21 posted on 12/21/2007 5:16:55 PM PST by Eric Blair 2084 (Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms shouldn't be a federal agency...it should be a convenience store.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: papasmurf

A Christmas present!!


22 posted on 12/21/2007 5:18:08 PM PST by Politicalmom (Huckabee’s experience with foreign policy consists of eating at the International House of Pancakes.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Thompson will do fine -- if he shows moderately well in Iowa, it will be a victory. Thing about Iowa is that the caucuses tend to reward organization, and thus aren't necessarily indicative of the real campaign standings.

Recall that Bob Dole (37%) and Pat Robertson (25%) were the big winners there in 1988 (leaving Bush 41 in the dust at 19%).

The real test for Thompson will be in primaries, where the results aren't so easily influenced by the campaign organizations.

23 posted on 12/21/2007 5:24:34 PM PST by r9etb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Politicalmom
A Christmas present!!

FRedHeads have been good so we get a good present. Go Fred!

24 posted on 12/21/2007 6:14:40 PM PST by Route66 (America's Main Street - - - Fred D. Thompson / Consistent Conservative...The One with Gravitas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Route66

I’ve been REALLY good. I want the NRA endorsement. :)


25 posted on 12/21/2007 6:15:38 PM PST by Politicalmom (Huckabee’s experience with foreign policy consists of eating at the International House of Pancakes.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Politicalmom
I’ve been REALLY good. I want the NRA endorsement. :)

I must admit that would be a fine present. I honestly think if he shows well in Iowa we just might get it.

We are seeing a great abundance of good news for Fred coming out of Iowa and I'm really getting jazzed.

26 posted on 12/21/2007 6:34:44 PM PST by Route66 (America's Main Street - - - Fred D. Thompson / Consistent Conservative...The One with Gravitas)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I am a member, and please don’t refer to us as a denomination. [ I know you don’t know that, I can’t let that pass.] You will not find Christmas Eve services for the church of Christ of Fred’s background or mine.
I hope he goes to church on Sunday however.


27 posted on 12/21/2007 7:04:08 PM PST by daylilly
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Eric Blair 2084

“The GOP voters can either nominate Fred Thompson who brings all of the factions of the GOP big tent together...limited government, strong national defense, fiscal conservative, social conservative....or tear the Reagan coalition apart and lose 45 states by nominating someone who appeals to only one faction. It’s up to the voters. It’s that simple.”


Worth quoting!


28 posted on 12/21/2007 8:48:29 PM PST by Rick_Michael (The Anti-Federalists failed....so will the Anti-Frederalists)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Rick_Michael
Wayne Thompson
29 posted on 12/21/2007 9:23:33 PM PST by Eric Blair 2084 (Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms shouldn't be a federal agency...it should be a convenience store.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Second place in Iowa would be huge for Fred. Even a strong third (20% plus) would be big.


30 posted on 12/21/2007 9:25:41 PM PST by Texas Federalist (Fred Thompson - The only true conservative in the race)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Eric Blair 2084

It is that simple.


31 posted on 12/21/2007 9:26:15 PM PST by Texas Federalist (Fred Thompson - The only true conservative in the race)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Texas Federalist; All

Strong second, possible first.

We are talking about Fred Thompson here guys. If he was doing well in the polls I would be nervous...


32 posted on 12/21/2007 9:30:01 PM PST by ejonesie22 (In America all people have a right to be wrong, some just exercise it a bit much...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: ejonesie22

With no help from the MSM. They are trying hard to ignore him.

He could campaign for 72 straight hours with no sleep and the MSM will still say he is lazy. The sheeple weren’t there to see it. They only know what the media reports.


33 posted on 12/21/2007 9:49:14 PM PST by Eric Blair 2084 (Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms shouldn't be a federal agency...it should be a convenience store.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Eric Blair 2084
The sheeple are not the ones who will put Fred in play, at least not at first.

I am content that he is doing what he does best, getting people to vote for him.

34 posted on 12/21/2007 10:02:06 PM PST by ejonesie22 (In America all people have a right to be wrong, some just exercise it a bit much...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: ejonesie22

sheeple listen to polls. That is why the MSM tried to tell the sheeple that Bush was losing to Kerry by a landslide that November morning in 2004. The hope was that the sheeple would listen and not bother to show up.


35 posted on 12/21/2007 10:06:51 PM PST by Eric Blair 2084 (Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms shouldn't be a federal agency...it should be a convenience store.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Eric Blair 2084

And that worked out so well for them...


36 posted on 12/21/2007 10:09:46 PM PST by ejonesie22 (In America all people have a right to be wrong, some just exercise it a bit much...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson