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Republicans gear up for Michigan -2008 Primary
BBC ^ | Monday, 14 January 2008, 14:18 GMT | BBC Staff

Posted on 01/14/2008 11:30:19 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

epublicans gear up for Michigan

Getty Image removed

Michigan could be make-or-break for Mitt Romney, analysts say

Voters in the US state of Michigan are gearing up for the Republican primary on Tuesday in the next stage of the race for the White House.

Polls suggest a very close battle between Arizona senator John McCain and local boy Mitt Romney.

The Democratic contest has been weakened because Michigan chose to hold its vote early and the party barred its delegates from the final convention.

Analysts say Michigan's fragile economy is the main issue.

High unemployment

Some commentators say this could be a crucial contest for former Massachusetts governor Mr Romney, who failed to win in New Hampshire and Iowa despite heavy spending.

McClatchy poll findings

Michigan had Mr Romney's father, George, as its governor from 1963 until 1969. Mitt Romney's wife was also born in the state and in eve-of-poll campaigning he has been stressing his local roots.

"If I'm president of the United States I will not rest until Michigan is back," he told a cheering university audience on Sunday.

"I will bring it back with your help."

Michigan and its main city Detroit used to be famous for making cars.

But it now has the highest unemployment rate in the US.

KEY DATES AHEAD

15 Jan: Michigan primary

19 Jan: Nevada caucuses; South Carolina primary (Rep)

26 Jan: South Carolina primary (Dem)

29 Jan: Florida primary

5 Feb: some 20 states including California, New York, New Jersey


An average of polls suggests that Mr Romney is marginally behind Mr McCain, who won the state in his presidential bid in 2000 and won the New Hampshire primary last week.

Mr McCain told supporters he would make the security of the US his priority.

"I believe that the most important mission I can have... is to keep this nation safe," he said.

Third in the polls is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucus.

Other big names, like former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, are not taking part in Michigan, holding their fire for later in the national campaign.

Reuters poll findings

In the Democrat race, only Hillary Clinton of the leading candidates features on the ballot.

Barack Obama and John Edwards took their names off last October, after the national party penalised the state party for holding its primary early.

Most Democrats are focusing their energies on the contests in Nevada on Saturday and South Carolina on 26 January.




TOPICS: Michigan; Campaign News; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2008

1 posted on 01/14/2008 11:30:20 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: All
Not sure on these Polls...

Earlier article on bad POLLS>>>

Why Bother To Publish It? (bad polling)

2 posted on 01/14/2008 11:35:10 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: All
Rival Economic Policies, Personal Outlooks Distinguish GOP Michigan Race
by FOXNews.com
Monday, January 14, 2008

*********************EXCERPT*************************

Mitt Romney’s “major economic address” to the Detroit Economic Club was barely out of his mouth Monday before John McCain’s surrogates began slamming the Republican presidential candidate as all talk, little substance.

The latest salvo in a presidential race that is growing particularly ugly came as Romney strives to keep a slim lead one day before the GOP primary in Michigan, which is sorely hurting from a downturn in U.S. automotive production.

“Michigan voters shouldn’t be fooled by Mitt Romney’s latest campaign promises of economic development and job growth. They need to look closely at his record in Massachusetts, where manufacturing job growth was third-worst in the country and taxes and ‘fees’ increased by over $700 million per year,’ said McCain backer and former Massachusetts Gov. Jane Swift, who withdrew from her re-election bid in 2002 under a cloud of voter anger. Her departure made way for Romney to win the nomination and state election.

“Mitt Romney has a reputation of saying anything to win. A comparison of his record versus his rhetoric on the economy shows why,” Swift said.

Romney has tried to distinguish his message from McCain’s by arguing that he doesn’t see the Great Lakes State as a lost cause. McCain has tried to take a pragmatic approach, telling Michigan voters that the automotive industry jobs lost will not return and Michiganders must learn new skills.

But Romney calls McCain’s message pessimistic, and says he is unwilling to give up on Michigan.

“I see a vital infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and an innovative spirit all worthy of an optimistic vision and deserving of a leader who will work tirelessly to deliver the power and potential of Michigan and the American people,” Romney told voters at the speech entitled “Keeping Michigan and America Economically Strong.”

He also cast himself as a Washington outsider who won’t be stuck in the political funk of D.C.

“Washington politicians look at Michigan and see a rust belt. But the real rust is in Washington,” he said.

Romney said unlike McCain, he is not going to concede Michigan’s or the nation’s future.”A lot of Washington politicians are aware of Michigan’s pain, but they haven’t done anything about it,” he said. “What Michigan is feeling will be felt by the entire nation unless we win the economic battle here. Michigan is a bit like the canary in the mine shaft – what’s hurting Michigan, if left unchecked, will imperil the entire nation’s economy.”

He added that McCain’s proposals won’t make it easier for Michigan residents or any other American to get past the economic crunch caused by skyrocketing energy prices.

“Senator McCain and Senator (Joe) Lieberman have a bill pending in Congress that unilaterally imposes new high energy costs on U.S. manufacturers, with no safety valve.

3 posted on 01/14/2008 11:42:56 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: All
RealclearPolitics poll:

Michigan Republican Primary
Tuesday, January 15 | Delegates at Stake: 30*

Romney over McCain slightly....

4 posted on 01/14/2008 11:49:59 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: All
Romney leads McCain in Michigan poll
By: Mike Allen
Jan 12, 2008 10:25 PM EST

*************************EXCERPT************************

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who badly needs to win Tuesday's Michgian primary, has an 8-point lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona in a McClatchy/MSNBC poll of Michigan voters to be released Sunday. 

Romney had a narrower lead in a Detroit Free Press poll and was tied in a Detroit News poll.

After polls in New Hampshire failed to foresee Tuesday’s decisive win by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), campaigns and the press are reluctant to put much stock in polls. It’s clear that the races for both presidential nominations are fluid, with big swings possible in the final hours before voting.

5 posted on 01/14/2008 11:56:01 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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The McClatchy/MSNBC poll puts Romney at 30 percent, McCain at 22 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 17 percent, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee at 7 percent, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 6 percent and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 5 percent.

McClatchy Newspapers reported: “Romney led McCain by 2 to 1 among voters who ranked the economy and jobs their top concern. He led Huckabee by a slightly greater margin among those voters. He also led McCain by 2 to 1 among likely voters who called themselves Republicans.”

The analysis continued: “McCain owes his solid standing to independents and Democrats, taking 38 percent of their support, while Huckabee had 22 percent and Romney had 18 percent. ... Evangelical Christians represented 46 percent of the likely primary vote in the poll, and Huckabee got 31 percent of their support while Romney got 23 percent.”

The poll of 400 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan was conducted by Mason-Dixon by telephone from Wednesday through Friday. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.


6 posted on 01/14/2008 11:58:02 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

7 posted on 01/14/2008 12:08:30 PM PST by G8 Diplomat (Creatures are divided into 6 kingdoms: Animalia, Plantae, Fungi, Monera, Protista, & Saudi Arabia)
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To: elhombrelibre; jdm
Related thread:

McCain's Michigan Edge: Democrats
Captain's Quarters ^ | Jan. 14, 2008 | Ed Morrissey
Posted on 01/14/2008 12:01:51 PM PST by jdm

**********************EXCERPT Intro******************

The Michigan primary promises to start a bloody debate among Republicans that in some quarters has already started. A new Zogby poll of likely GOP primary voters in Michigan shows John McCain with a three-point edge over Mitt Romney. The poll's internals, however, show that Romney leads among Republicans while McCain gets a boost from Democrats and independents that will skip the meaningless Democratic primary:

8 posted on 01/14/2008 1:01:23 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: All
From Post #6:

He also led McCain by 2 to 1 among likely voters who called themselves Republicans.”

9 posted on 01/14/2008 1:03:14 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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