Posted on 01/21/2008 7:52:36 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Fred Thompson's political career might very well be over tomorrow. If so, take this post as a postmortem of his candidacy. It is obvious that Senator Thompson has squandered a great deal of good will during the interminable run up to the announcement of his candidacy and his less than stellar performance in the period September through mid-December. The easy analysis is that Thompson was lazy but I don't think it was laziness. I think it was a misguided attempt to run an issues oriented campaign.
Thompson's Socratic style of addressing those early crowds was a good way to discuss issues on a substantive level but a lousy way to run for president. Voters more attuned to snappy, one sentence solutions to the problems of the world coming from other candidates found that when listening to Thompson, they had to think, not react emotionally.
In this way, Thompson appealed to people more on an intellectual level. This was fine as far as it went but it brought him few converts and elicited nothing but contempt from the media.
The people and the pundits always say that they want a campaign to focus on the issues but they really don't. Like the girl who laments her inability to find a nice guy, the electorate whines for a serious candidate talking about substance but longs for a candidate who will ignite their passions while we lap up horse race media coverage. We lie when we say that substance is the only thing important to us. The people also want a candidate to fire them up with a rousing speech which touches upon the issues we care about. The dry lecture on the constitution is what Thompson offered at first and while important it sure wasn't worth drying miles for to sit in a crowded diner.
To his credit, Senator Thompson did change his approach and his stump speech became more impassioned. His message of being the Clear, Consistent Conservative is succinct and honest. Fred even began to contrast his message with Mike Huckabee's which paid dividends in SC. All this begs the question, why now?
On a number of occasions, the crowd — somewhere between 300 and 400 people jammed into the ballroom — interrupted with chants of FRED! FRED! FRED! And at one point, I heard the woman standing next to me — we had talked earlier, and she was a Thompson fan from the very beginning — say, to no one in particular, “Where was this six months ago?” A few minutes later, when Thompson made an especially powerful point, she said it again.
This is important because I think it holds a clue as to why Thompson got in the race and whether he will stay in. I think Fred got into the race with the idea that the field did not have a strong conservative and that his friend, John McCain, was effectively finished. I do not think Thompson likes campaigning, he has made this abundantly clear, so a field without a strong conservative voice probably looked weak to him and that much easier to sweep in and garner the support he needed without the retail politicking. But something happened on the way to the coronation.
The electorate, even conservative voters, like to have a candidate who is willing to do all the hand-shaking, baby kissing, and speechifying that most other candidates are willing to do. Without a willingness to make a fool of yourself even a conservative in a field of moderates will not catch fire. Add to this the Republican tendency to reward those who have put in their time then a late comer really was a huge hurdle to overcome and you can't do that while playing Professor Conservative lecturing the plebs.
What does work and can still work for Thompson is good, old fashioned hardball politics. Thompson has got the speaking skills. If you caught any of his South Carolina talks you would have been impressed. That is not Thompson's problem. Thompson's problem is his unwillingness to contrast himself with the other candidates in a consistent manner. It is ironic that Fred is the consistent conservative because he sure hasn't been the consistent candidate. Fred started in on Mike Huckabee at the South Carolina debate and it won him plaudits from the media and punditry. He kept it up enough to sting Huckabee who made time to attack Fred for doing nothing while in the Senate and for being a lobbyist. Fred must have been over the target. But that was it. Fred never went after John McCain about immigration other than to mention it in passing in the debate.
All is not lost for Thompson, not by a long shot. The field is still weak. Conservatives are still clamoring for a candidate. Thompson could win. However, the only way this is going to happen is if Fred is willing to throw away his inhibitions about retail politics and continues his campaign by taking the attack to the other candidates in the field. Politics is marketing ideas and Fred has failed to market his ideas by repeating his message over and over again and by contrasting his views with the other candidates. I want to hear from Fred Thompson that he is the only candidate who can be trusted to secure the border. I want to hear that 20 times a day until the Florida primary. Call the other candidates RINOs. Take the heat and give it back to them by quoting their records. Hardball does not mean dishonesty, it means brutal honesty. Fred has the facts on his side.
Right now some conservatives are thinking of 2008 as a rebuilding year they are that disgusted with the choice of candidates besides Fred. A lot of people are disgusted with the media and/or the voters for not seeing in Thompson what they see. I don't. How can you blame the people for acting like they always have and demanding to be entertained as well as lead by their candidate? We all know the game and how it is played.
No, I blame Thompson. Fred is a good and loyal friend and that is really what is holding him back. Fred has not decided to do whatever it takes to win. The road to the nomination has a huge yellow stripe over John McCain's back. I supported Thompson because I liked his record but I am not blind to the fact that he has not given his full effort. So all of the talk of Fred staying in the race is for nothing unless Fred is willing to crawl his way to the top. I think he knows this and I think he is likely to leave the race. What a shame.
He needs seasoned campaign advisers, a kick ass campaign manager, and he needs a real support staff.
I’m in a real ugly place right now, so I won’t say anymore, sorry.
If you can contact him or any of his people, tell him that the people who KNOW that he is our only hope for America NEED Fred to stay in the race! I’m not a quitter, and I hope Fred is likewise a fighter. I agree with your assessment about 80%.
Fred needs to fight as if America itself is at stake. It is. He needs to be relentless in his attacks of ALL the others. Does he wish for his kids’ future to be that of a bleak Marxist state? I love Fred, and the fight for our republic must continue, through him! God bless him! Bob
I know of no one that has had contact with him since Sunday AM. His people don’t even respond to the 1200 + posts on his blog.
As well constructed a critique of what happened to the Thompson campaign and what the future holds as I’ve yet seen. Well reasoned and well written and spot on.
Thanks for posting this.
I think he needs a Lee Atwater....but he’s dead. so short of that, he needs Karl Rove.
Oh, my. Rove...just how flippin’ cool would that be? Also on my short list would be Tom Delay. I’d love watching him tear McManiac apart. LOL
I think Fred still has a good chance. Huckabee has peaked. McCain is despised. Mitt doesn’t connect well to common people. All of these front runners will be beaten by the democrat nominee. Fred needs to stand up and say this.
IMHO, Fred’s phone script is pretty bad. Maybe no worse than some of the phone calls I’ve received for various politicians, but it doesn’t seem well calculated to win friends and influence people.
I thought so too....when I made some calls for him I ditched it pretty quick and tried to just talk to people.
More negative nattering.
One Sunday afternoon a really neat biplane landed to get fuel. One of the pilots said he wanted to get some shots of the plane in flight with his movie camera so the other pilot would take it up and ‘put it through its paces’ while he filmed it. He then said that I could go along in the back seat if I wanted. I jumped at the chance and gave little thought, other than how cool it was, when the pilot strapped me in and told me how to get out in a hurry and where the D-ring was for the parachute. That should have been a hint that my ride wasn’t going to be anything like what I used to bumming in the field’s Aercoupe or even it’s hot-shot Aeronca 7AC Champ. Another hint should have been when the camera guy, owner of the plane, reminded the pilot the plane did not have a fuel system for inverted flight so be sure to roll out of inverted flight before the engine quit completely!
I have never been so scared in my life. He turned that place every way but loose for the better part of 20 minutes. There was no way to communicate with the pilot, other than yell at him during the frequent times the engine was pulled back to idle while he did various aerobatic maneuvers!
I bore you with this story simply to say that I feel the same way today about the political situation as I felt strapped in the back seat of that wonderful old airplane. I had absolutely no way to affect the outcome of the flight. All I could do was hold on for dear life and plan for life after the flight, if I were that lucky.
I will cast my vote for FredT, I have given as much money as I can afford, I’ve talked him up to friends and family, I pray for him and his campaign daily. Other than that I am powerless.
This article is spot on.
The media hit job to paint Fred like Gerald Ford started back in July with repeating a rumor from an unsourced advisor to the campaign that fundraising didn’t go as well as they expected. No facts were ever brought forth to prove that.
Then came the highly filtered ‘takes’ on Thompson on the stump right after his announcement. That started the mantra of ‘lazy, sleepy, disinterested, no fire in the belly,’ which again was because the MSM says so, but little proof was offered. I never saw that whenever I heard him speak.
So, passing by all that garbage, the author has hit Fred’s real problem between the eyes. He simply needs to distinguish himself from his opponents, and start hitting them between the eyes.
If Fred stays in and does these things I think there’s still hope for him.
I just wanted to thank you for everything. The loss to us is personal, but the loss to the Country is great and they don’t know it.
God bless you and yours and God help our Country!
It will all work out somehow. Our country is blessed by God and is second only to Israel in providential priority, IMO. We are an experiment in Freedom and Liberty, and God is for both those things. Like the ancient Hebrews, we stray from God, but always get back in line eventually.
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