Posted on 01/29/2008 8:06:17 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
9:53PM - Add Senator Mel Martinez to the list of winners tonight. He looks a lot better backing a winning presidential candidate than he does stepping down prematurely as chair of the RNC. - REID WILSON
9:46PM - The other big winner tonight? Gov. Charlie Crist. From the St. Petersburg Times today on the Crist endorsement: "For Crist, the move is a risky one, but one with a big payoff if it makes him look like a kingmaker." - BLAKE DVORAK
9:42PM - Giuliani dropping out helps McCain, right? Well, not so fast. According to the exit polls, 49% of those who voted for Rudy today picked Mitt Romney as their 2nd choice while 44% picked McCain. And, interestingly, those who voted for Huckabee overwhelmingly picked McCain as their top 2nd choice over Mitt Romney, 54% to 32%. - TOM BEVAN
9:30PM - Rudy Giuliani, in his concession (withdrawal?) speech, calls the GOP the "Party of Bush." Those thumping sounds you just heard were NRCC chair Tom Cole and NRSC chair John Ensign bashing their heads against walls in frustration. - REID WILSON
9:12PM - Fox News and AP call for McCain. It makes sense. Like I said - if Romney is losing Tampa, is in a tie in Orlando, and getting trounced in Miami - there just are not enough Floridians for him to make up the difference. - JAY COST
9:10PM - A Mitt Romney spokesman tells RCP that the campaign has still not made a decision about television advertising in February 5 states. With six days to go until polls open, isn't that something he ought to take care of? We wonder, how damaging is a Florida loss to Romney? Has Romney held off on investing more in his campaign because he's re-evaluating, like he did before his Michigan win, and wondering whether the campaign is still worth it? - REID WILSON
9:07PM - And what of metro Miami?
Broward County: 38% in, McCain +7,762 over Romney Miami-Dade County: 31% in, McCain + 26,968 votes over Romney (who is in third) Palm Beach County: "0%" Reporting, McCain +2,852 over Romney
Total: McCain NET 27,582 out of votes cast 156,926, or a 17.5% lead.
I just don't see how Romney can find the votes in the panhandle to make up the difference. A split in Orlando, a slight lead in Tampa for McCain, a big lead in Miami for McCain. Where are the votes for Romney? - JAY COST
9:02PM - Huckabee just finished speaking in Missour-ah. He's not dropping out. - TOM BEVAN
8:54PM - And what of metro Tampa?
Hernando County 78% in, McCain +1,290 Hillsborough County 24% in, McCain +2,490 Pasco County 94% in, McCain +3,361 Pinellas County 18% in, McCain +2,685
Total: McCain NET 9,826 out of votes cast 144,232
That's a 6 point lead. My feeling at this point is that it would be very hard for ROmney to lose Tampa, lose Miami, tie Orlando, and still win the state. - JAY COST
8:53PM - An hour and a half after polls in Miami-Dade County closed, just 7% of precincts are reporting results. As we wrote this morning, Miami-Dade is historically late to report, meaning John McCain's lead there -- a 9-point margin at this point -- could boost his numbers throughout the night. Combine that with a stronger than average Huckabee showing in the Panhandle, and McCain looks stronger as the night goes on. - REID WILSON
8:48PM Hmm, what do you know? Hillary is giving something that looks awfully like a victory speech that is getting play on all the cable nets. - TOM BEVAN
8:40PM - Interesting results coming out of metro Orlando.
Lake County: 0% in, Romney +412 votes Osceola County: 87% in, McCain +21 votes (no, that is not a typo) Orange County: 91% in, Romney +19 votes (neither is that) Seminole County: 70% in, Romney +1,337 votes NET: Romney +1,789 votes OUT OF 120,000 total votes.
That's called a tie! - JAY COST
8:35PM - Halperin reporting Giuliani will drop out and endorse McCain as early as tomorrow in California. If McCain wins tonight, Giuliani's endorsement could be the clincher. - TOM BEVAN
8:31 - As Samuel L. Jackson once famously said - "Hold onto your butts!" Broward (est. pop. 1.8 million) and Miami-Dade (est. pop. 2.4 million) are beginning to report. They could very well overwhelm the current numbers. With 7% in, Miami-Dade is going 44% for McCain, 35% for Giuliani, 12% for Romney. 4% in from Broward, and it's 38% for McCain, 25% for Giuliani, and 22% for Romney. Still no word yet from Palm Beach. JAY COST
8:29PM - Six counties to watch tonight: In Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes and Washington counties, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are fighting over evangelicals in the Panhandle, while John McCain is counting on a big tunrout among veterans. If Huckabee scores well enough to seriously affect Romney's totals, McCain will have a good night. - REID WILSON
8:28PM - According to the CNN exits, Cubans comprised only 6% of the vote thus far (1,505 respondents) went 50% for McCain versus 34% for Giuliani, and only 10% for Romney. - TOM BEVAN
8:24PM - Brit Hume just announced the final FOX exits: McCain 34; Romney 31. - BLAKE DVORAK
8:06PM - CNN called the race for Clinton. - TOM BEVAN
8:03PM - More exits: Conservatives - Romney 40, McCain 27, Huckabee 15, Giuliani 13. Evangelicals - Romney 34, McCain 28, Huckabee 28. - TOM BEVAN
7:54PM - Another interesting note from metro Tampa. With 77% of precincts reporting in Pasco County, John McCain has a 2,800 vote lead. There is still an insignificant number of precincts from the other metro Tampa counties, but this is an intriguing early result. - JAY COST
7:52PM - AP's Charles Babington reports John Edwards has canceled two campaign trips to Alabama and North Dakota to make a major speech on poverty from New Orleans. That's the city in which Edwards kicked off his campaign in December, 2006. Advisers said Edwards does not plan to pull out of the race, but others close to the campaign, Babington writes, were surprised by the move. The campaign insisted Edwards would be at the Democratic debate in Los Angeles on Thursday. - REID WILSON
7:40 PM - The early returns are just that: early. But one poing of interest. With 91% of precincts reporting in Manatee County, McCain holds a slight lead over Mitt Romney, 35% to 34%. Manatee County is just south of Tampa, and is home to Bradenton (where the perpetually anemic Pittsburgh Pirates have their spring training). This is tight. It is consistent with the pre-election polling I have seen - so that is a testament to just how tight this race will be. As a point of comparison, Bush won Florida by a much improved margin in 2004 in part because of his strong showing in greater Tampa. To that point, Hillsborough has not yet reported very many returns. - JAY COST
7:39PM - The Obama camp has sent out this email: "Based on exit polling data our campaign is prepared to call the delegate count at 7 pm eastern." - BLAKE DVORAK
7:32PM - With Rudy Giuliani facing what increasingly looks like the end of his campaign, many supporters seem set to join another campaign. A fundraiser close to the Giuliani campaign tells RCP that at least six New Jersey county chairs for the former Mayor ready to jump to the McCain team, though they will wait until Giuliani drops his bid. A McCain win in New Jersey, which earlier this year changed their rules to award all the state's delegates to the primary winner, would push him that much closer to the nomination. Perhaps better for the Senator, fundraisers headed his way could help refill what are said to be empty coffers. - REID WILSON
7:25PM - Incidentally, Hillary Clinton's "victory" "thank you" rally in Davie, Florida was set to kick off about 25 minutes ago. She's at 58% of the vote right now - with less than 1% reporting, of course - TOM BEVAN
7:10PM More from Fox News exits:
* 43% voters say Crist endorsement important, 51% voted for McCain. * Late deciders 36% McCain, 37% Romney * Experience: 38% McCain, 38% Romney * Seniors and Hispanics going for McCain by double digits.
I'm also hearing Fox is reporting McCain is beating Romney by 4% among voters who said the economy was the most important issue to them. UPDATE: Here's the link. That makes things very interesting. - TOM BEVAN
7:04PM As Tom notes below, the early exits look like very good signs for Mitt Romney: Lots of Florida Republicans said they care most about the economy, Cuban turnout might be lower than the 17% expected, and only 3 in ten said they're moderates. But the exits also show McCain up slightly. With so many self-described conservatives in the race, does that mean McCain mended just enough fences with the base to squeak by? - REID WILSON
6:52PM If the exits hold Giuliani is toast. Will he drop out? I think so. It's either that or face the prospect of a humiliating defeat in his home state six days later. I don't think Rudy will put himself through that. - TOM BEVAN
6:46PM In non-Florida news, another member of Congress is calling it quits. Kentucky Republican Ron Lewis is hanging up his voting card after seven full terms in the House representing the Owensboro-based district south of Louisville. Two Republicans and two Democrats face off in the May 20 primary. The district is solidly Republican -- President Bush won with 65% and 62% in 2004 and 2000 -- but it's voted Democratic in the past and gave Lewis just 55% last year. Check Politics Nation tomorrow for more on the seat. - REID WILSON
6:32PM The Romney folks should like the quick take on the exits:
*Nearly half of Florida Republican primary voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the country. Terrorism, Iraq and immigration each were picked by fewer than two in 10. *Eight in 10 Republican primary voters were white and a little more than one in 10 were Hispanic - about half of whom were of Cuban heritage.
*About three in 10 Republican voters called themselves moderates.
- TOM BEVAN
6:24PM Turnout appears strong, the question is whether that benefits one candidate more than the other. You could argue it either way, I suppose, but to the extent the ballot initiatives (property tax relief and slots in Miami-Dade) draws out voters who aren't conservative ideologues, high turnout might seem to benefit John McCain slightly. - TOM BEVAN
6:20PM A note on the exit polls: While early voting has been open for weeks, the consotrium has been polling early voters for weeks, NBC's First Read points out. They've weighted the numbers, so when Panhandle polling stations close at 8 pm Eastern, the nets won't be delayed. If there is a call to be made, they will make it. Early votes, by the way, should favor Giuliani, as should some counties that always report first. Watch for Giuliani's numbers to start high and slump throughout the night. - REID WILSON
6:17PM - Some polls close in 45 minutes, but results won't be know until the rest in the Panhandle close at 8pm eastern, at which point you can start seeing them tabulated here. - TOM BEVAN
6:15PM Apparently El Rushbo encountered a glitch voting in Palm Beach County. - TOM BEVAN
6:10PM Some voters got a last minute robo call from Charlie Crist today. - TOM BEVAN
6:08PM Geraghty has latest wave of exits: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent. Still a long way to go. - TOM BEVAN
6:06PM Here we go. A general look from AP exits here. - TOM BEVAN
La RAZA won.
Don’t forget MEChA, Tyson Foods, Lulac, Iowa Beef Packers, McDonalds, temporary staffing agencies, the Mexica Movement and etc...
The Cubans in Florida are as myopic on the immigration issue as Mexicans in California are. They have no concept of the harm illegal immigration is doing to this country. Amnesty was the big winner tonight.
Don’t forget La Raza, MALDEF, Lindsey Graham, Vicente Fox, Felipe Calderon and the rest of the Mexican plutocracy.
More exits: Conservatives - Romney 40, McCain 27, Huckabee 15, Giuliani 13. Evangelicals - Romney 34, McCain 28, Huckabee 28. - TOM BEVAN
Conservatives voted for Mitt Romney.
Evangelicals voted for Mitt Romney.
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