Skip to comments.Nightmare Scenario For Dems: McCain Could Win Oregon
Posted on 06/26/2008 10:52:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
There are so many terrible things in the latest SurveyUSA Oregon poll for Democrats that we don't really know where to start.
However, it is important to note that SurveyUSA, like any poll, should be taken with a grain of salt. In the primaries, SurveyUSA was often the most reliable in the Clinton-Obama race, but it was off by large margins in some contests (we remember North Carolina being one of them, but must note everyone but Rasmussen was off in North Carolina...SurveyUSA nailed other contests perfectly, and it seems its sampling problems were 100% tied to high African American turnout (if we remember correctly, not only did SurveyUSA undersample African Americans, but its polls also predicted 80% would vote for Obama, when that number was close to 95%, as African Americans were voting in a solid pride-bloc since February).
It also should be noted that our experience with polls this years has been 100% race and gender biased -- which is groundbreaking for presidential polls. There have never been polls run on a national level between a woman and an African American candidate, so polling methods kept getting tweaked from poll to poll to counter for the gender and racial bias. NO ONE ever got this quite right.
While there's never been a national poll run for a European American man versus an African American man in a general election, there have been plenty of state races between such contenders...so, polling methods should be more finely tuned for the general election race.
It's very hard to believe McCain is this close to Obama in Oregon, though. If SurveyUSA is not an outlier, then this could spell a McGovern-level loss for Obama against McCain, because Oregon should be a cake-walk for a Democrat. There's just no reason for it to go Republican, and if it starts trending towards McCain, Obama might only win Hawaii (pride-voting for a native born candidate), Illinois (if you win Cook County, you win the state, and Obama is considered a Chicagoan, which Mayor Daley will deliver to him with zero worries), and Washington, DC (African American pride-voting will carry the capital district easily) in the fall.
McCain and Obama are tied in Massachusetts right now, but that's 100% linked to Deval Patrick's performance, and the fact people there heard all of David Axelrod's "Hope/Change" malarkey and know what results it all brings (no hope, no change, just an ineffective governor in over his head). They will hold Patrick's performance against Obama, and will also, we believe, hold John Kerry against Obama as well (if the Republicans run an effective and well-funded candidate, they could very well pick up Kerry's seat, if they worked hard enough: his primary challenge from Ed O'Reilly shows he is more vulnerable than Democrats care to admit).
The one big problem with the SurveyUSA poll is that it fails to poll a McCain/Palin matchup, and instead goes with McCain/Fiorina. That's a mistake, because Oregon is a state where Sarah Palin would be a TREMENDOUS asset to McCain.
Think about it. One recent article on McCain's VP choices claimed Palin, as governor of Alaska, brings nothing to the table, since Alaska is so remote and its electoral votes are a slam-dunk for the GOP. True, Alaska is not part of the contiguous United States, but Oregon is not that far away, in relative terms, or in cultural terms. It's the Pacific Northwest, and Governor Palin should be as known to the people of Washington state and Oregon as Governor Strickland is to people in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee: states not as similar to Ohio as Indiana or Pennsylvania, but states that have enough to do with Ohio to know Strickland's one of the best governors in the nation.
And, we did say ONE of the best governors in the nation, because as much as we love Ted Strickland, bar none, the best governor in office today is Sarah Palin.
The people of Oregon and Washington state know this...so it's counter intuitive for anyone to argue Palin brings nothing to the table because of Alaska's remoteness. If used properly, Palin could put Washington state, Oregon, and even California into play. Think about it, a state with two female United States senators would be very receptive to Palin's record of achievement and strong personal skills. From what we've read about her, she's won over her harshest critics by showing up and doing a great job cleaning up the corruption from Alaska's previous nepotism-prone administration.
The other major problem in this poll is the VP picks SurveyUSA used for Obama: McCaskill and Richardson will never be picked as VP, unless Obama truly intends to lose in the fall. There are two people Hillary Clinton supporters hate most in this world right now, and those two are McCaskill and Richardson. That's counter intuitive to some, because there is actually no animosity towards Obama in Hillaryland: her supporters don't like him, don't trust him, and think he's both an unqualified candidate and a dangerous man to have in office, but we give him credit for out-gaming the Clintons, a triumphant achievement if ever there was one. However, McCaskill and Richardson have behaved so despicably throughout the primaries that Clinton supporters have a collective goal of ensuring neither is ever again elected to office, and that both spend the rest of their lives hounding for how they treated Clinton and her supporters. It's tough to say who out of the two is hated more, but it seems like McCaskill wins by a nose. Defeating her in 2012 is a cause Hillary Clinton supporters can't wait to mobilize for.
So, Obama's VP won't be Richardson or McCaskill, and it won't be Sebelius (terrible reaction to her State of the Union rebuttal this year), Sam Nunn (he fired two gay staffers while in the Senate, and will never be forgiven for that), and Jim Webb (he likes being in the Senate, and knows if he runs as VP, and Obama loses, Webb will lose his Senate seat in 2012, since he only won it in 2006 because of George Allen's macaca meltdown). Picking a military man like Clark or Schweitzer is also a bad move, because a man that tough will make Obama look incredibly effeminate and delicate in comparison. Obama's best choices are Ted Strickland (who already said no), Ed Rendell (who already said no), and Evan Bayh (who is perfect, actually, and would have most likely been Clinton's second choice for VP, after Strickland).
It would be interesting to see McCain/Palin and Obama/Bayh polled. Palin would help McCain in Oregon, and Bayh would do the same thing for Obama, if Bayh was deployed to Oregon to counter Palin (though Obama has said wherever he goes is Obama country, that's just not true: it is, however, pretty accurate when it comes to Evan Bayh -- we've never seen a politician work a crowd better than Bayh, and that includes President Bill Clinton).
In our opinion, McCain/Palin takes Oregon, Washington, and Alaska, and makes things incredibly close in California (which McCain will win with an effective outreach to Hispanics and the working class).
If that happens, the Democrats really are looking at their worst electoral defeat in a generation.
There was an article from Townhall (I think) a year ago that reported Oregon turning 70% red by 2008 due to the influx of conservatives moving out the urban areas in the Pacific Northwest.
The title of the article was called “Red Dawn”.
You mean ESPECIALLY SurveyUSA should be taken with a grain of salt. In my years of poll-watching, I have learned that newsweak in the most leftward-biased polling org and that SurveyUSA is the cheeziest (ie. most erratic) polling org. The best are Mason-Dixon and Ras.
No wonder Obama is sprinting toward the middle.
Did he even register for the Selective Service that's required by law?
I agree, SurveyUSA over the years has been erratic, but I’ll take it for now.
BS. McCain is not taking Oregon or Washington. Especially the former. Hippies love Obama. There is no city farther left han Portland. Eastern Oregon is not going to be enough as it is so sparsely populated.
Furthermore, it is nonsense that Hillary supporters, even if some are mad at McCaskill, will attempt to “take her down.” The Democrats must be so proud and thrilled to have a Senator from a state like Missouri. Moreover, Obama is the winning horse, a powerful ally who is going to have a lot of fundraising at his disposal even if he doesn’t win. If McC goes down, it will have to be a Republican, sorry.
Once they say that Obama can will Massachusetts and Kerry could lose seat, you know you can stop reading. Because the Earth Massachusetts is very Democratic.
meant “can win” MA
I dunno, McCain winning Oregon?? Sounds like as much fantasy as those kooks who think Hussein could win Mississippi and Georgia.
Well sure, but you know after all there wasn't a draft then, and the war WAS over and......
Because those white people there are RAY-ZISTS! /sarcasm off