How Liberal Trolls Are Working To Get McCain Elected President (Plus Gallup Poll Analysis)

Wizbang ^ | September 19, 2008 | D.J. Drummond

[2ndDivisionVet]

This explains a lot, poll-wise. And yes, I think the Obots are hurting their boy quite a bit, even before he extolled them to get in people's faces.

[SoConPubbie]

He lost me in the first paragraph.

He probably should have somebody read his editorials before he posts them.

[John Robie]

Good post. I was looking at the same information and thinking the same thing.

[Watershed]

Could someone post the Cliff’s Notes on this?

[John Robie]

McCain is also leading in every region other than the northeast among these national polls.

[KansasGirl]

This analysis of Gallup is very interesting.

[John Robie]

If you break the poll down by demographics, then there is no way to account for McCain’s lead going down. McCain has the same or more support from every group as he had when he was ahead. The polls are oversampling liberals.

[Misschuck]

Obama can’t totally hide who he really is, a Chicago, thug politician, The truth will out.

[Henchster]

The author is saying that Gallup has changed their weighting, and that in reality, McCain is leading. From the article:

Anyway, going back to my earlier piece on party weighting, if we go back and look at the historical track record for the last ten years in terms of self-identified party affiliation from actual exit polls, we see a clear standard of weights; 38.4% Democrat, 35.8% Republican, 26.0% Independent. If we then work them out to fill the liberal/moderate/conservative slots used by Gallup, the following weights have historical validity and may be used as a constant for poll responses:

Liberal Democrat 9% Moderate Democrat 16% Conservative Democrat 13% Independent 26% Liberal/Moderate Republican 23% Conservative Republican 13%

If we apply those weights to the poll response, here is what happens to the Gallup polling responses:

August 21: Obama 39.94%, McCain 43.43%, Undecided 16.63% August 28: Obama 40.04%, McCain 43.60%, Undecided 16.36% September 4: Obama 41.06%, McCain 41.77%, Undecided 17.17% September 11: Obama 42.04%, McCain 42.45%, Undecided 15.51% September 18: Obama 39.62%, McCain 45.71%, Undecided 14.67%

[KansasGirl]

If we apply those weights to the poll response, here is what happens to the Gallup polling responses:

August 21: Obama 39.94%, McCain 43.43%, Undecided 16.63%

August 28: Obama 40.04%, McCain 43.60%, Undecided 16.36%

September 4: Obama 41.06%, McCain 41.77%, Undecided 17.17%

September 11: Obama 42.04%, McCain 42.45%, Undecided 15.51%

September 18: Obama 39.62%, McCain 45.71%, Undecided 14.67%

[Watershed]

If we apply those weights to the poll response, here is what happens to the Gallup polling responses: August 21: Obama 39.94%, McCain 43.43%, Undecided 16.63% August 28: Obama 40.04%, McCain 43.60%, Undecided 16.36% September 4: Obama 41.06%, McCain 41.77%, Undecided 17.17% September 11: Obama 42.04%, McCain 42.45%, Undecided 15.51% September 18: Obama 39.62%, McCain 45.71%, Undecided 14.67%

Thanks! It's happy hour and this makes it much easier.

[TheWasteLand]

Interesting article. Thanks.

[ER_in_OC,CA]

The article suggests Gallup has changed the affiliation weighting. However, it is my understanding that Gallup’s Daily Tracker is a “registered voter” poll with no weighting of respondents.

That is why you see wide swings. One night they might poll more Dems, another night more R’s. The theory of the tracker though is to show ebbs/flows in the race and give pure RV data.

Of course, RV polls are not always indicative of who will actually cast a ballot. So I like the Rasmussen polls as a counterweight to get a 2nd view.

[DRey]

“Could someone post the Cliff’s Notes on this?”

1. DemRats are hurting, not helping Obama.
2. Polsters are changing weightings of Republican and Democrats to reflect Obama winning when, in fact, McCain is gaining faster than Obama.

That’s what I got from it. This guy needs an editor.

[ncalburt]

Quick Summary , Gallup been gamed its poll this week from last week. They increased the Dem intensity factor and decreased the Repub factor. There raw Gallup poll data does not support a shift to Obama when comapred to the prior two weekd data.

[Para-Ord.45]

Great theory but how does it account for the majority of all the other polls that has husein in the lead also ?

[major_gaff]

Nice regression of the weighting of the poll numbers.
Well done.

[Always Right]

Odd, since most polls are showing that more people are now identifying themselves as Republicans.

[ncalburt]

The non political polls such as Rasmussen and Battleground Polls have them TIED . CBS is a PUSH POLL.

[BlueNgold]

Worth repeating:

So, put it all together, and in the past week Obama has stayed steady or lost support in every party identification group, yet Gallup says his overall support went up four points. And McCain stayed steady or went up in every party identification group, yet we are supposed to accept the claim that his overall support went down by four points?

Gallup fudging the books?