Skip to comments.Behind the Curtain (North Carolina Polls)
Posted on 10/22/2008 2:43:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Who knows how this election will turn out in the end? There are about 500 polls out there, but now Ive just seen one that makes sense to me (Not one of these automated dialing wonders by a machine that cant tell if its talking to a sixty-year old man or a six year old child or a mental patient but a real honest to goodness poll with 873 pages of statistics.)
So heres my opinion, for what its worth.
Just naturally, candidates like to believe their virtues their speeches and stands and ads are what get them elected. But this poll says, loud and clear, here in North Carolina thats not exactly so.
Why is someone voting for Pat McCrory or Bev Perdue?
It turns out most times for the same reason: President Bush. If youre one of the 41% of the people who like President Bush, youre almost surely to be voting for Pat McCrory and John McCain and Elizabeth Dole.
And if youre one of 48% who dislike President Bush, youre almost surely voting for Perdue and Obama and McCain with the exception of one group of voters.
Now, at first blush, that sounds like good news for the Democrats but as always the gods of politics have thrown a wrinkle into the equation.
Part of the 48% who are unfavorable to President Bush 6 points of the 48 to be exact are Republicans and when it comes to voting theyre not about to pull a lever for Obama, Hagan or Perdue.
So when it comes to how people vote, they anti-Bush vote isnt quite the gorilla Democrats hoped for at least in North Carolina
Theres also more bad news for Democrats.
Among White Democratic voters who are 27% of the electorate a surprising thing happens. Even after the war in Iraq, the economic meltdown, and years of howling by Bushs critics, the remnant of conservative Democrats 7 out of the 27 are still favorable to George Bush and almost to a man (or woman) they vote for John McCain, Elizabeth Dole and Pat McCrory.
That seven percent of the voters may be the last gasp of the old Jessecrats but theres just enough gas in that tank to have a profound impact on the election. That 7% is one big reason John McCain leads Barack Obama in North Carolina:
John McCain 48%
Barack Obama 44%
Bob Barr 1%
Now, for the second wrinkle: Who on earth are those undecided voters? Herere two facts about them: They like John McCain better than Barack Obama:
Favorable 60 47
Unfavorable 20 33
Thats good news for McCain. But heres good some news for Obama: Those same undecided voters also dislike President Bush:
So McCain is saying, Obama, Im not George Bush, and Obamas running an ad saying McCain voted with President Bush 90% of the time but that leaves Obama with one problem: Even if every undecided voter who is unfavorable to President Bush votes for him he loses.
By around 52% to 48%.
Heres the Democrats basic problem: A few miles up the road in Virginia President Bush is ten points more unpopular than he is here in North Carolina and in Virginia Obama leads. But once you cross the border into North Carolina you enter a different world politically.
So, to win here, Obama needs six out of every seven undecided votes a whopping 85% and its hard to see how he gets them. Unless theres a sort of October surprise in reverse which drives up President Bushs unpopularity. Otherwise, McCains on solid ground in North Carolina.
the Governors Race.
Lot of crossover votes for Pat McCrory. He is well liked in Charlotte. Plus he riding that message of change train that Obama is on.
Carter Wrenn is as smart as they come. You can take what he says to the bank.
If McCain loses NC and VA, it’s difficult to see how he gets to 270. With a win in PA it may be plausible, but I’d hate to be counting on that for victory.
I just can’t imagine Hussein winning NC or VA, but both look like they are going to be a fairly close call.