Skip to comments.LIVE THREAD -- Tennessee and Oklahoma State House Special Elections
Posted on 10/13/2009 6:08:47 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
TN/OK: Polls Close In Special Elections
The polls have closed in Tennessee. The first results are in for early voting and absentee and can be found here.
The polls have also closed in Oklahoma. The first results are also in for early voting and absentee and can be found here.
The Tennessee race is especially crucial as the GOP has only a one-seat advantage in the state house and a RINO made a deal with the Democrats to get himself elected Speaker--if the GOP wins this race, it would finally take control of the state house.
TN results here: http://tnsos.org/elections/Results/TNHouse62.php
OK results here: http://www.ok.gov/~elections/sh55gen.html
So far, it looks like we'll pick up both seats.
TN results here: http://tnsos.org/elections/Results/TNHouse62.php
OK results here: http://www.ok.gov/~elections/sh55gen.html
Special elections ping
Can you tell us about these districts? Are they GOP strongholds. Why are they open? ect.
Thanks. Hyperlinking is not exactly my forte.
If I’m not mistaken, in TN all of the votes are in. The Republican wins 55.7% to 41.4%. DJ, how long before a real Republican is sworn in as Speaker?
(Submitted by Local Election Commissions)
Pat Marsh (R): 4931
Ty Cobb II (D): 3663
Christopher T. Brown (I): 255
Wow. If these are right, then TN was 55%(R) to 41%(D). That’s a spanking! OK was 55%(R) to 44%(D). Ouch.
The TN district voted for McCain over Obama by over 2:1, but was more competitive in the 2000 presidential election and was traditionally a Democrat district. DJ, why did the Dem resign?
The OK district has a 2:1 Dem registration edge but the district has been voting heavily GOP for awhile. The incumbent Democrat resigned when he accepted a federal appointment.
Good news in Tennessee. We’re closer to control of the legislature.
OK still has 6 of 35 precincts out, but I don’t know if the Democrat can make up a 10% deficit.
In Oklahoma, Republican nominee Todd Russ succeeds Ryan McMullen, a Democrat who was appointed state Director of Rural Development for the USDA. It looks promising.
I found some good news. Republicans won two special elections to succeed Democrats in the Tennessee and Oklahoma state legislatures. It looks promising. Between this and the race for Albuquerque Mayor, we have reason to be hopeful.
With only one precinct still out in OK 55, Republican Todd Russ has extended his lead to 56%-44%. So we won both special elections.
Short live thread, though. : )
Thanks for the information. It appears each are reasonably positive signs.
You’re very welcome.
The Albuquerque Mayor race was especially hopeful, as it voted over 60% for Obama and hand’t elected a Republican Mayor since 1985.
Is there a ping list for these election? If so and you run it add me please.
I’ll try to remember. I don’t run a ping list for any particular state or cause, I just post what I find interesting.
More money from a different state teat.
I believe he resigned to take a higher paying county job.
The juiced up minority and youth vote that put Obama in the White House is fading. As long as Obama is not at the top of the ballot, the political landscape will revert to the Red / Blue divide.
The seat in OK was held by a Democrat maybe forever since that area used to be heavily Dem. This is far from a GOP stronghold in OK. Except for President and Congress, they have always leaned very much Dem in this area.
The two races that really foreshadow 2010.
Rasmusseen today has McDonnell leading Deeds, 50-43.
Public Policy Polling today has Christie leading Corzine, 40-39. 3rd Party candidate, Daggett, gets the rest.
The OK seat has only voted heavily Republican for national elections not for local elections. We kept getting closer with this seat and now we have won it!
We can’t oust a Speaker, once they’re elected, they’re locked in for two years. Even now with a 3-seat margin (our largest since about 1869), presuming it holds through next year’s election, we still have potential squishies the rodents might bribe (the arrogant apostate Puppet Speaker Traitor Kent ACTS like he’s still intending to keep his job, and what is even more galling, presuming the GOP doesn’t have the balls to strip him next year of the nomination, he might be able to persuade enough RINOs who had no problem debasing themselves to fellatiate Boss Hogg Naifeh for years to vote for him - with the whole Dem caucus aiding the cause).
The more numerous amount of seats we win (and target those that have voted for Boss Hogg in prior elections), the more likely we have of putting in the choice of the bulk of the caucus. It’s still outrageous one slimy little sophomore $hitstain can hold the entire majority party hostage.
So you can’t unseat the Speaker once he’s elected? Can you at least change the composition of the house committees and the committee chairmen?
I thought that since Canadian County (which is as rock-ribbed Republican a county as there is in OK) is in the district that it had a strong GOP lean to it even in state races, but I see that only a portion of Canadian is in the district. Based on the 1992 and 1996 presidential elction results (Clinton ran very well in parts of OK that still tend to vote Dem in state races), I would guess that Washita County (all of which is in the district) is a bit of a swing county in state races, while I would guess that the other two counties partially in the district (Caddo and Kiowa) are pretty strongly Democrat in state races.
That district had a GOP incumbent prior to Curt Cobb, he resigned to take a county job entitled “Clerk and Master.” The Dems ran his brother Ty for this seat, and we were besieged on the Nashville stations of slanderous ads against Pat Marsh in the past 10 days, which apparently some Dems now say backfired. Ty actually tried to run to the right of the Republican Marsh, got the right-to-life endorsement (I don’t know why Marsh didn’t), but apparently that endorsement was about as viscerally offensive to base liberal Democrat voters as getting an endorsement from Planned Parenthood would be to Conservatives for a Republican.
One problem for Ty Cobb was that it was reported he was too scared to debate Pat Marsh and dodged many, if not all, potential debate matchups. That was a bad sign that Cobb wasn’t up to the task, and why he and the State Dems threw everything but the kitchen sink into those non-stop tv ads. I actually never saw ONE ad by Pat Marsh.
I think with this, the Dems know 2010 is lost to reclaim the House (at least with their guys in charge, because even with the Puppet Speaker, he wasn’t enough to stop our party from electing the three statewide officeholders for the first time since Reconstruction and from ostensibly grabbing a majority on all of the county election boards, with a few exceptions).
They are terrified with what we’re going to do with the district lines. My Councilman in Nashville and one in the adjacent district, may be ginning up to run for the legislature, unthinkable under the current lines (and in Nashville, we have a 9D-1R delegation, obscenely out-of-whack, that were the GOP to draw them, and extend them partway into the adjacent counties, we might get 4 or 5, and unpacking the 1 hyper-GOP district and draw 2 marginal GOP seats in the South and SW part of the county, as we had in the 1980s, is just the bare minimum. A former House GOP Leader hailed from one of those districts, and they wiped out his seat deliberately). We’ve never had more than 2 House Republicans from Nashville in the modern era, probably not since the 1870s-90s.
From what I understand, we could only unseat Williams via impeachment, and that won’t happen. You’d have to have the Dem caucus go along. He’s technically committed no “legal” crime, but moral, yes. And no, the Speaker is extremely powerful, he and he alone decides the makeup of who runs the committees, and he gave most of the plum stuff to the rodents. We’re just stuck until January 2011 (unless Williams resigns beforehand, and why would he, when he has that much power and will be the last powerful position he’ll ever hold ?).
is that ty cobb related to THE ty cobb of baseball?
ya know, if the idiots in new jersey re elect corzine, then they get all the tax raises they deserve.
Thanks for the ping. My Congresscritter, Marky Mark Schauer left a State Senate district open that we have a good shot at taking. That one is in November.
19th State Senate District, I believe. Bush won the district in 2004, but it went for Obama and Granholm (once, maybe twice).
Exactly! We have made inroads into this area over the years but for Russ to win this time is AWESOME. He put a lot of work into this. Most of Canadian County is rock-ribbed Republican but this portion is not as solid GOP. GOP didn’t do too well in the past in Indian counties but in recent years they are trending more Republican. Was actually shocked to see every County go for McCain including the ones that have a high Indian population.
Figured the Chickasaw would go for McCain but was shocked when Obama didn’t do well in some other counties with predominately Native American populations. Now Obama is having the Tribal Meeting and so far only the Cherokee and Choctaw have committed to going out of the 39 tribes in Oklahoma.
After 8 years of Brad Henry and now Obama, I look for this to be the trend setter for 2010 when Republicans take back a lot of the statewide offices. I am so glad we have term limits for Governor — the Obama kneepadder will soon be gone!
Minor correction, I forgot there were two Cobbs from that area, I got them confused. There is another Ty Cobb (meaning had this Cobb won tonight, there would’ve been two Ty Cobbs from nearby districts). The other Ty Cobb was the sole Democrat win last November over an incumbent Republican, Tom DuBois, who was mercilessly attacked by the rodents because of a party at his house that had some underaged kids drinking (although little definitive evidence the guy knew what was going on, and how often do teenagers break into a liquor stash ?). DuBois got appointed to the State Election Commission. This “other” Cobb should be heavily targeted and taken out next year.
Schauer left the seat on January 3 and they *still* haven’t held the special election?
From what I recall, Schauer represented a conservative district whose voters he fooled by claiming to be socially conservative and not having a bad voting record on guns.
What counties form the district that will be having the special election?
I doubt it. It seems to me that if yor last name is Cobb you might as well call your kid Tyrus or Ty (or Tyrone, I guess), and even if your name is Robert you might get tagged with Ty as a nickname.
Check out post 35, which explains that an adjoining district has a representative also named Ty Cobb. Talk about confusing! Good thing the other Ty Cobb lost yesterday, and not just because he was the Democrat.
It has all of Calhoun County which leans slightly democrat, but voted for Bush in 2004. It has most of Jackson County outside of the southern most part. Jackson leans slightly Republican but voted for Obama and has two dem state reps from the 2006 disaster. Calhoun County has one republican state rep and one democrat state rep.
The Republican Mike Nofs represented the most democrat state rep district of the group which was Schauer's old district. It has both Battle Creek and Albion. The democrat Marty Griffin was the mayor of Jackson and a state rep.
Most of the district leans Republican outside of Battle Creek, Springfield, City of Jackson, and most of all Albion (minority and also college). District Map
Thanks for the info (and the map). I see that President Bush carried the district with 49.25% in 2000 and with 53.00% in 2004; I don’t have town-and-city vote results for 2008, but it is clear that Obama carried the district with approximately 52%. The special election should be a real barn-burner.
These are countywide. I have to check which Jackson townships are not in the district.
Calhoun: (B1 - Bush won once, B2 - Bush won twice)
Obama won - Albion City, Battle Creek, Bedford, Homer (B2), Marshall City (B2), Springfield, Tekonsha (B2)
McCain won - Albion Twp, Athens, Burlington, Clarence, Clarenton, Convis, Eckford, Emmett, Fredonia, Lee, LeRoy, Marengo, Marshall Township, Newton, Pennfield, Sheridan.
Jackson:(B1 - Bush won once, B2 - Bush won twice) Obama won - Blackman (B2), Jackson, Leoni (B1), Waterloo (B2).
McCain won - Columbia, Concord, Grass Lake, Hanover, Henrietta, Liberty, Napoleon, Norvell, Parma, Pulaski, Rives, Sandstone, Spring Arbor, Springport, Summit, Tompkins.
Marsh is for stem cell research that’s why TN right to life backed the nepotistic rat who I guess must be against it then.
Anyway it sucks the Speaker can’t be removed. It’s pretty ridiculous actually. The state AG or Judge that decided that question decided it wrongly.
Maybe it was based on projections but there was a thread earlier about GOP picking up a long-held D seat in TN.
There are upsides and downsides to removing a Speaker. Although I want the current one removed at once, there are some practical reasons for locking in one for two years so as not to necessarily have upheaval and turmoil. In a closely divided body, you could (if all that was required was a majority vote of 1) oust Speaker after Speaker (think of the appalling CA Assembly session of 1995-96) every time there was a vacant seat or a coalition would come up, with a Speaker-presumptive bribing members for votes.
When we had Republican Bill Jenkins as Speaker for the 1969-71 session, I’m sure the Dems would’ve tried anything possible to get him out before his term expired, all they needed was their entire caucus and the bizarre old iconoclast Independent to remove him (if again, by majority vote). Probably better to leave Traitor Kent in, because he’s only causing the Dems more harm.
If he tries to run again under our label and the party doesn’t have the balls to strip him of the nomination (if he wins), then that will be a real problem. If he runs as a Democrat, they certainly won’t make him Speaker again (even if he could persuade some RINOs to support him), the Dems in leadership will want that post. They only voted for him to stick it to the GOP and because he promised to keep most of their power intact within the House (the only promise that scumbag kept).
I hope defeating him in the GOP primary should be a top priority. If he runs in it. His reelection is not acceptable.
“strip him of the nomination”
The state party has that power? The rats basically did that to that lady state senator right?
Yes, they have the power. The rodents are more ruthless than we are. The Dems stole a primary race in TN-1 when they ousted David Davis in favor of Phil Roe by flooding our primary. The party wouldn’t strip Roe of his win, which should’ve been done at once.
The only Jackson County townships not in the state senate district are Grass Lake, Leoni, Norvell and Summitt.
When the last precincts came in it confirmed that the GOP did pick up the seat in TN quite handily. The link to the final results is on this thread.