Skip to comments.Could Democrats Lose the Senate?
Posted on 01/25/2010 3:07:06 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The decision by Beau Biden not to run for Senate brings to mind an historical parallel. With no Biden in the race, with no Ted Kaufman serving another term, the Democratic candidate is likely to be New Castle County executive Chris Coons. Back in 1972, no Democrat wanted to run against a popular Republican, so a young New Castle County Councilman with no money entered the race. His name: Joe Biden.
Historical parallels might be all that Democrats have to hang onto. Rep. Mike Castle (R) is sufficiently popular statewide and has a fairly unimpeachable record of service in Washington. Ok, so that's his one area of vulnerability in an anti-incumbent, anti-Washington year. But speaking of incumbency, it's incumbent upon the White House to make Coons a competitive candidate: Joe Biden needs to campaign harder for Coons than he would have for his own son. I don't agree with the analysts who are moving Delaware to the "solid" Republican side -- though, all things being equal and time not passing for nine months -- this is a lean-Republican seat.
The other state the White House political operation owns is Illinois. There's a four-way Democratic primary which might soon turn nasty. Democratic strategists want the White House -- which, let's face it --owns Chicago -- to clean this mess up. The saving grace for Democrats in the state is that Republican Mark Kirk is beatable and will make mistakes -- unforced errors -- trying to position himself correctly.(continued)
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I fervently hope so.
Liberals love to talk about symbolism, feelings, etc. Those four seats are the most symbolic seats that one can imagine: held by Current President, VP, Majority Leader, and Liberal icon. That they have already lost one, and might lose the rest too, says a lot.
It’s easy to imagine the Democrats losing the Senate:
1. Very good chance: Republicans hold all their current seats.
2. Very strong chance: Republicans pick up Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota, Arkansas, Delaware, Pennsylvania.
3. Good chance: Republicans pick up Illinois and Indiana.
4. Reasonable possiblity: Republicans pick up two from California, Wisconsin, New York or Washington.
If the cards fall right, they have 51 seats.
Not likely to happen that way. Consider that the loss of the Kennedy seat has shifted the bargaining power away from a 'moderate' Democrat, Louisiana's Mary Landrieu, toward the twin-headed liberal Republican senator Snowe-Collins from Maine. The power relationships in the senate can swing suddenly with the change of just 1 seat.
I expect that you'll see more 'retirements' and maybe another move to 'independent-status' a la Joe Lieberman.
Scott Brown will not be seated in the Senate until February 11, 2010.