Skip to comments.Pollster: NC might pick Obama in 2012, too
Posted on 12/06/2010 12:23:31 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
With President Barack Obama flying into North Carolina today, it's a good time to look at whether he could carry the state again.
A recent poll says he'll be in a competitive position in two years.
The survey, by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, finds Obama leading or close to all potential Republican opponents in the state.
Obama would defeat former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin by 48 percent to 43 percent, would edge former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 46 percent to 45 percent and would tied former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 44 percent. He would lose to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee by a 44 percent to 48 percent.
All of the results were within the margin of error and, therefore, statistically tied.
Obama surprised many in 2008 by becoming the first Democrat to carry North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976, edging out Arizona Sen. John McCain.
PPP recently took a similar poll in Virginia, which also went for Obama in 2008, finding that Obama was leading all Republicans there by five points. The firm found that Obama had lost more independent voters in North Carolina than he had in Virginia during the past two years.
The spin: "It has to be encouraging for President Obama that so soon after some wrote his political obituary, he is already looking just as strong in North Carolina and Virginia as he did in 2008," said Dean Debnam, the president of the Raleigh polling firm. "The remarkable thing is he is doing this well while still losing independents, unlike in 2008."
Obama has an approval rating of 45 percent, while 51 percent disapprove of the job he is doing.
As for Palin, 36 percent view her favorably, while 55 percent view her unfavorably. Gingrich's ratings are 33 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent. Romney is viewed favorably by 33 percent, and unfavorably by 38 percent.
The survey of 517 North Carolina voters was conducted Nov. 19-21 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Voters rate Sens. Burr, Hagan
Republican Sen. Richard Burr, having just come through an easy re-election campaign, is in much better political shape than his Democratic colleague, Kay Hagan.
Burr has a job approval rating of 44 percent and a disapproval rating of 34 percent, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling, a Raleigh-based firm with Democratic leanings.
That compares to Hagan, who has an approval rating of 33 percent and a disapproval rating of 44 percent.
Fortunately for Hagan, she does not have to face the voters until 2014.
The poll of 517 North Carolina voters was conducted Nov. 19-21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.
Smith going to Washington
On Tuesday afternoon, Joseph Smith, N.C. commissioner of banks, gets introduced to the Senate Banking Commission. U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan will do the honors. Smith is the White House nominee for director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Smith has been the state's banking commissioner since 2002, and he took an early stand against lending practices that put many low-income people into loans they couldn't afford. No word yet on who might replace Smith in North Carolina.
The FHFA runs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are responsible for funding more than half of all home loans made by banks.
If you line up the four Virginia counties that surround DC...they all vote heavily (over 70 percent usually) Democrat. There are three or four other counties around the state that typically lean or go that direction as well....and then the rest of the state of Virginia is fairly Republican. This has been a long time in development and a lot of this has to deal with the suburban attitude of northern Virginia. You can also look at the amount of money that those four counties demand from the state (which fairly said...they deserve because of the significant state taxes that come from that region and the salaries associated with them).
Being from NC, and having a dem controlled state legislature for 100 years, until last month... I don’t see Obama winning as it stands now. Maybe people are finally waking up.
No one else has a posse that large...
NC is an odd state politically. The NCGOP until recently has been borderline worthless. The RATS loved the NCGOP...always a sure thing for the RATS to win.
For yrs many conservatives just shook their heads in disbelief at the goings on in NC. Guv is always a RAT, lil dickie burr ran as a non Republican.
You have the old line “my daddy was a Democrat...” mentality and of course the huge influx of Northerners, public employees..the worst are the public school teachers.
Nifong could win the guv’s race...thats how bad it is in my home state. Very sad situation.
I would not be surprised if the premise of the PPP poll was to determine what would result politically if every stripe of voter was equally likely to vote. I suspect that this is a false premise and that the types of voter more likely to vote for Obama are less likely to vote. Thus, it is more likely, in the real world, that NC would vote for whoever is Obama’s opponent unless he can really terrify his voting blocs. Perhaps his actions in the current visit will provide a window in the prospects for such a campaign.
I agree. The article is propaganda, intended to soften the gigantic tsunami the Dems in NC just felt in November.
If the new Republican majority in the state assembly will fight to clean up the election and registration fraud in the next two years, the Dems cannot win anything in NC.
And Perdue will be gone.
And redistricting will fix a few of those crooked congressional districts.
I’m happy to subscribe to that drum-beat. My own district NC-2 is one of the worst, but that didn’t stop Renee Ellmers from winning anyway.
The REAL enemy of America are the people who elected and would vote again for this nightmare. This is the stuff of which civil wars are made...
I believe North Carolina is 21% black.
95% of that vote is an Obama Gimme.
When you add a few Yellow Dog Democrats , and a few liberals that roamed in from out of State , Add a few people that don’t bother to vote,it gives them a fair chance of voting for Obama again.
Obama as the incumbent is under 50% against Palin (the supposed mark of an incumbent who won’t be re-elected) in one of his ‘08 states. Palin is already within the margin of error.
And she’s supposed to be ‘unelectable’? Were she the Democrat, all of the headlines, news and commentary would be that she is, by conventional wisdom, in the lead over Barry.
I’ve already bet my lib-brother $100 that Obama will not carry any state in 2012 that went Bush-Bush-Obama in ‘00, ‘04, ‘08
Well all those Government working Parasites who sacrifice by working for the Government have to Live somewhere and there sure are not fewer Government Parasites since Obumbo has been President.
They will be running polls out the wazoo for the next two years trying to convince Republicans to run anyone EXCEPT a conservative. Remember that there are a lot of factors that influence elections and poll numbers. For example, McCain was dead until he picked Palin and suddenly all his conservative base returned. A Huckabee might have what appear to be decent poll numbers, but in fact have no excitement, no fundraising, no organization, and no chance.
Is there something wrong with the people that live in North Carolina?
Have they been asleep the past 2 years as Obanma has done everything humanly possible to hurt America?
What the hell is wrong with people in this Country these days? Are they that weak and spineless?
This article doesn’t even pass the “red face” test. I’d like to see the demographics and sample specifics. Bet it was a small section of an urban area.