Skip to comments.Pollster: NC might pick Obama in 2012, too
Posted on 12/06/2010 12:23:31 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
With President Barack Obama flying into North Carolina today, it's a good time to look at whether he could carry the state again.
A recent poll says he'll be in a competitive position in two years.
The survey, by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, finds Obama leading or close to all potential Republican opponents in the state.
Obama would defeat former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin by 48 percent to 43 percent, would edge former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 46 percent to 45 percent and would tied former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 44 percent. He would lose to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee by a 44 percent to 48 percent.
All of the results were within the margin of error and, therefore, statistically tied.
Obama surprised many in 2008 by becoming the first Democrat to carry North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976, edging out Arizona Sen. John McCain.
PPP recently took a similar poll in Virginia, which also went for Obama in 2008, finding that Obama was leading all Republicans there by five points. The firm found that Obama had lost more independent voters in North Carolina than he had in Virginia during the past two years.
The spin: "It has to be encouraging for President Obama that so soon after some wrote his political obituary, he is already looking just as strong in North Carolina and Virginia as he did in 2008," said Dean Debnam, the president of the Raleigh polling firm. "The remarkable thing is he is doing this well while still losing independents, unlike in 2008."
Obama has an approval rating of 45 percent, while 51 percent disapprove of the job he is doing.
As for Palin, 36 percent view her favorably, while 55 percent view her unfavorably. Gingrich's ratings are 33 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent. Romney is viewed favorably by 33 percent, and unfavorably by 38 percent.
The survey of 517 North Carolina voters was conducted Nov. 19-21 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Voters rate Sens. Burr, Hagan
Republican Sen. Richard Burr, having just come through an easy re-election campaign, is in much better political shape than his Democratic colleague, Kay Hagan.
Burr has a job approval rating of 44 percent and a disapproval rating of 34 percent, according to a survey by Public Policy Polling, a Raleigh-based firm with Democratic leanings.
That compares to Hagan, who has an approval rating of 33 percent and a disapproval rating of 44 percent.
Fortunately for Hagan, she does not have to face the voters until 2014.
The poll of 517 North Carolina voters was conducted Nov. 19-21 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.
Smith going to Washington
On Tuesday afternoon, Joseph Smith, N.C. commissioner of banks, gets introduced to the Senate Banking Commission. U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan will do the honors. Smith is the White House nominee for director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Smith has been the state's banking commissioner since 2002, and he took an early stand against lending practices that put many low-income people into loans they couldn't afford. No word yet on who might replace Smith in North Carolina.
The FHFA runs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are responsible for funding more than half of all home loans made by banks.
If you line up the four Virginia counties that surround DC...they all vote heavily (over 70 percent usually) Democrat. There are three or four other counties around the state that typically lean or go that direction as well....and then the rest of the state of Virginia is fairly Republican. This has been a long time in development and a lot of this has to deal with the suburban attitude of northern Virginia. You can also look at the amount of money that those four counties demand from the state (which fairly said...they deserve because of the significant state taxes that come from that region and the salaries associated with them).
Being from NC, and having a dem controlled state legislature for 100 years, until last month... I don’t see Obama winning as it stands now. Maybe people are finally waking up.
No one else has a posse that large...
NC is an odd state politically. The NCGOP until recently has been borderline worthless. The RATS loved the NCGOP...always a sure thing for the RATS to win.
For yrs many conservatives just shook their heads in disbelief at the goings on in NC. Guv is always a RAT, lil dickie burr ran as a non Republican.
You have the old line “my daddy was a Democrat...” mentality and of course the huge influx of Northerners, public employees..the worst are the public school teachers.
Nifong could win the guv’s race...thats how bad it is in my home state. Very sad situation.
I would not be surprised if the premise of the PPP poll was to determine what would result politically if every stripe of voter was equally likely to vote. I suspect that this is a false premise and that the types of voter more likely to vote for Obama are less likely to vote. Thus, it is more likely, in the real world, that NC would vote for whoever is Obama’s opponent unless he can really terrify his voting blocs. Perhaps his actions in the current visit will provide a window in the prospects for such a campaign.
I agree. The article is propaganda, intended to soften the gigantic tsunami the Dems in NC just felt in November.
If the new Republican majority in the state assembly will fight to clean up the election and registration fraud in the next two years, the Dems cannot win anything in NC.
And Perdue will be gone.
And redistricting will fix a few of those crooked congressional districts.
I’m happy to subscribe to that drum-beat. My own district NC-2 is one of the worst, but that didn’t stop Renee Ellmers from winning anyway.
The REAL enemy of America are the people who elected and would vote again for this nightmare. This is the stuff of which civil wars are made...
I believe North Carolina is 21% black.
95% of that vote is an Obama Gimme.
When you add a few Yellow Dog Democrats , and a few liberals that roamed in from out of State , Add a few people that don’t bother to vote,it gives them a fair chance of voting for Obama again.
Obama as the incumbent is under 50% against Palin (the supposed mark of an incumbent who won’t be re-elected) in one of his ‘08 states. Palin is already within the margin of error.
And she’s supposed to be ‘unelectable’? Were she the Democrat, all of the headlines, news and commentary would be that she is, by conventional wisdom, in the lead over Barry.
I’ve already bet my lib-brother $100 that Obama will not carry any state in 2012 that went Bush-Bush-Obama in ‘00, ‘04, ‘08
Well all those Government working Parasites who sacrifice by working for the Government have to Live somewhere and there sure are not fewer Government Parasites since Obumbo has been President.
They will be running polls out the wazoo for the next two years trying to convince Republicans to run anyone EXCEPT a conservative. Remember that there are a lot of factors that influence elections and poll numbers. For example, McCain was dead until he picked Palin and suddenly all his conservative base returned. A Huckabee might have what appear to be decent poll numbers, but in fact have no excitement, no fundraising, no organization, and no chance.
Is there something wrong with the people that live in North Carolina?
Have they been asleep the past 2 years as Obanma has done everything humanly possible to hurt America?
What the hell is wrong with people in this Country these days? Are they that weak and spineless?
This article doesn’t even pass the “red face” test. I’d like to see the demographics and sample specifics. Bet it was a small section of an urban area.
“NC is an odd state politically. The NCGOP until recently has been borderline worthless..”
Something has happened there. That was the state of Jesse Helms, John East, and massive landslides for Ronald Reagan. Now they are the state of Nifong, John Edwards, and pure insanity.
No freakin’ way!
Here they go again. Already trying to pick our candidate for us.
Huckabee? They’re insane!
I am convinced they put something in the water here that makes the people this stupid. Not.even.joking.
If an alien landed here and had to take a guess at the demographic breakdown of the entire world just for spending a day in Raleigh. He'd be convinced the world was 70 percent black, 10 percent Muslim and 20 percent all else.
Wonderful (sarcasm off)I am moving from a very conservative county in Georgia to the Raleigh/Durham NC. Company is transferring me. Guess I’m going to have to deal with more commies.
Only because there are so many northern libs moving here! I think the state legislature can redistrict and that may have a profound effect. We are known for outlandish gerrymandering .
I beg your pardon. Most of the libs live in Raleigh,Durham and Charlotte. Mass influx of northerners. The rest of the state is relatively sane.
Yeah, us "dumb southerners" couldn't survive a day without smart ass northeastern Liberals telling us how to do everything. That must be why so many of ya'll are moving here. Couldn't possibly be our dumb low taxes, or our dumb low cost of living, or our dumb Right to Work laws, or our dumb good roads, or our dumb Republican majority Legislatures and Governors who want to keep our dumb way of life. Yeah, we just couldn't survive without the brilliance of northeastern Liberals being injected into our lives every day. Do us dumb southerners a favor and pass the word: Tennessee Sucks!
I’m with you, lots of NC bashing on here. We just totally cleaned house (literally) in NC. Not buying this propganda drivel at all.
Were you born this way or did you actually go to a liberal arts school? The PPP is notorious for under and skewed sampling, and was caught red-handed using a n=population formula when they should’ve been using (n-1)in the denominator. Skews the whole picture from standard deviations to confidence intervals to preconceived conclusions already based on non-representative sampling. But I’m just a dumb southerner, what do I know.
Yeah, and if they do, I am moving out of this benighted state to somewhere in FRee America.
The Raleigh and Durham areas are Obama country. Chapel Hill and Asheville are, too. There may be some Dem strongholds down on the coast, but my understanding is that the rest of the state is more sensible.
I’m pretty sure all the yankees that move here were stupid before they drank our water.
NC also is lousy with “good ol’ boys” who vote democrap because “daddy” always voted democrap. Many fail to understand that “daddy” voted for conservative dims, back when there was such a thing.
My guess is the huge immigration from the liberal Northeast. I am surrounded by people from NY, MD, NJ, DE, etc.
You and riri are welcome to leave anytime you want. Or, as an alternative, you can join the rest of us NC conservatives in fighting the good fight
No doubt about it. That is a huge part of the problem. When I tell people I think it is a little backwards here, they quickly say something about the southerners. I say, "It's not the southerners, it's the north easterners bringing their big government mentality with them.
I was only kidding. I'm not going anywhere. I did online campaigning for Bill Randall (opponent of 'rat Miller, US Rep). With redistricting, he'll probably make it next time, should he decide to run again.
Some of us are working very hard in Wake County to fix that.
There is more than one family that lives in my subdivision that still drives a car with an out of state license plate. Pure speculation on my part, but I would not be surprised if those transplanted northern libs are still registered to vote in another state, while also voting in NC!
The biggest block of libtard dims in NC are transplants from the north...the ones from Pennsylvania and especially stupid. Not ignorant. Stupid. They whine about how badly they destroyed Penn and then proudly tell us about “the way we used to do it back home” without realizing for an moment how stupid such statements are, not to mention discourteous.
I get especially concerned when they start playing banjos and making pig noises.
What, specifically? And how can I help?
Support conservative candidates in your area by volunteering on their campaigns is a start. My children (now 17 and 20) have been going door-to-door in my ‘hood for a couple of election cycles handing out early voting information to registered GOP.
Don’t blame North Carolinians, it’s the idiots from Penn, NJ, NY and other liberal strongholds up north who are disgusted with their own states that are moving here and causing trouble.
Want to know who we really love down here in NC? Chris Christie. Why? Because if he succeeds in turning New Jersey around, it’ll keep the New Jersey people the hell IN New Jersey instead of moving down here.
NC is spotty purple. They’re just now working on eliminating the “blue dog Democrat” crap from down east and have just wrested the legislature out of the Rats’ hands for the first time since not long after Reconstruction. And yet in contested House races that were considered “close,” the Rats went 4-for-5 this election, and the Republican win (Renee Ellmers, NC-2) was a very close thing. That’s partially because of the immense number of transplants and “halfbacks,” and partially because of the dying old rural Democratic traditions. Then when you throw in hard-left liberal enclaves like Asheville, Chapel Hell, and (sadly) my current home of Durham, it makes the state a very purple 50/50 kind of place.
Charlotte itself is Obama country but, like most cities, the suburbs in Mecklenburg, Union, Iredell, Gaston, Rowan, and Cabarrus counties are a lot more conservative.
Raleigh’s not *that* left. Big swaths of Wake County are bright red. Pity those of us that live over here west of the airport, though, because Durham County’s just a lost cause. Almost 70% for Obama in 2008, and 75% for the execrable David Price this past November. The unholy convergence of racial politics and a major liberal arts university is too much for common sense to overcome in the Bull City.
I see this thread has turned into the typical ‘Blame the Yankee’ thread, when NC had plenty of Democrats before us Yankees ever invaded.
As to the topic of the story, the chance of Obama winning NC again, I highly doubt it. He won by 12,000 votes last time against the worst GOP campaign in probably 100 years, in a terrible environment for the GOP.
“NC had plenty of Democrats before us Yankees ever invaded.”
Indeed. The kind that elected Reagan twice, Three Bushes and Dole over Clinton in ‘96.
Out of curiosity how many states east of the Mississippi have ever had a majority republican registered voting base?
“the chance of Obama winning NC again, I highly doubt it. He won by 12,000 votes last time”
We can thank the liberal strongholds of Durham, Chapel Hill, and Asheville for that.