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What is Intrade saying about the 2012 GOP race?
Intrade ^ | 030311 | Intrade

Posted on 03/03/2011 10:58:16 AM PST by Artemis Webb

I was curious what Intrade was saying about the 2012 GOP race. So I've listed who they are favoring for both the presidential and VP nominations. I am not listing anybody with less than a 4% chance. In descending order:

Mitt Romney 25%
Tim Pawlenty 12.3%
Mitch Daniels 10.9%
Mike Huckabee 8.3%
Newt Gingrich 6%
Sarah Palin 5.5%
Jon Huntsman 4.3%
Michele Bachmann 4.1%

-------------------------------------

For VP:

Marco Rubio 24.9%
Mike Pence 19.9%
Chris Christie 15%
John Thune 13%
Bobby Jindal 9.8%
Sarah Palin 9%
Mike Huckabee 7.9%
Tim Pawlenty 7.5%
Scott Brown 7%
Paul Ryan 7%
Bob McDonnell 5.5%
Jim DeMint 4.5%
Mitch Daniels 4%

(Excerpt) Read more at intrade.com ...


TOPICS: Polls
KEYWORDS: intrade
Mods please forgive me for making my own title as there is no actual "title".
1 posted on 03/03/2011 10:58:19 AM PST by Artemis Webb
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To: Artemis Webb

The numbers are what they are. And this is based on regular everyday voters who are mostly apolitical.


2 posted on 03/03/2011 11:01:51 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (Patriotic by Proxy! (Cause I'm a nutcase and it's someone Else's' fault!....))
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To: Artemis Webb

IOW = little, to scant interest.


3 posted on 03/03/2011 11:03:53 AM PST by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want to be on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: Artemis Webb

I predict the next POTUS isn’t even on that list.....


4 posted on 03/03/2011 11:03:53 AM PST by Thermalseeker (The theft being perpetrated by Congress and the Fed makes Bernie Maddoff look like a pickpocket.)
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To: Artemis Webb

If that list is accurate, seems to me Daniels is the best choice.


5 posted on 03/03/2011 11:06:21 AM PST by Huck (Antifederalist Brutus was right!)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Apolitical yea right

Do you know how much money is involved its not like the stock market my friend?

What do you think the media is spending to trash a Sarah Palin? I will tell you a whole hell of a lot more than it would take to move the chains on this BS market.

Nice try this stuff is total BS come back to me when the market involves hundreds of millions to billions then you may have a point.


6 posted on 03/03/2011 11:07:13 AM PST by USSR Didnt Fall
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To: onyx
"IOW = little, to scant interest."

I don't think you can say little to scant interest. These numbers reflect financial investment from Intrade traders. This isn't some internet poll. To have any say you have to have forked over cash. If you say, for instance, that you think Chris Christie will be the VP nominee in 2012 and he's not, you lose your money.

7 posted on 03/03/2011 11:10:02 AM PST by Artemis Webb (What, if not a bagel and coffee, confirms the existence of a just and loving God?)
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To: Huck
If that list is accurate, seems to me Daniels is the best choice.

Yuck, Huck.

8 posted on 03/03/2011 11:10:59 AM PST by pgyanke (Republicans get in trouble when not living up to their principles. Democrats... when they do.)
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To: Artemis Webb

Real money changing hands doesn’t mean there’s a lot of interest yet.

For instance: I buy and sell shares of junior minors. Real money gets paid for those shares but the market in any single junior is rather illiquid - a sudden influx of a small amount of money makes a big difference.

Right now the Libs can mess with the profile of front-runners without spending a lot of money.


9 posted on 03/03/2011 11:17:38 AM PST by agere_contra (Whenever a Liberal admits to something: he is covering up something far worse)
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To: Artemis Webb

Notice to GOP: I won’t cast a vote for Romney.


10 posted on 03/03/2011 11:24:41 AM PST by GingisK
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To: GingisK

Neither will I.

Nor will I vote for Huckabee, Gingrich, or Pawlenty.

NO MORE ^%%##@(&^%)*$% RINOS.


11 posted on 03/03/2011 11:33:50 AM PST by Emperor Palpatine (Tosca, mi fai dimenticare Iddio!!!)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
"...And this is based on regular everyday voters who are mostly apolitical.

I was at the barber shop and everyone was talking about the latest Intertrade.
( rolling eyes )

12 posted on 03/03/2011 11:45:27 AM PST by Leisler (Our debts are someone's profit. Follow the money, the vig.....)
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To: Artemis Webb

Man, I need to short a few of these people.


13 posted on 03/03/2011 11:46:59 AM PST by DaxtonBrown (HARRY: Money Mob & Influence (See my Expose on Reid on amazon.com written by me!))
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To: pgyanke

Who would you rather see win? Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels?


14 posted on 03/03/2011 11:49:26 AM PST by Huck (Antifederalist Brutus was right!)
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To: Artemis Webb

We are doomed...


15 posted on 03/03/2011 11:52:42 AM PST by surfer (To err is human, to really foul things up takes a Democrat, don't expect the GOP to have the answer!)
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To: Artemis Webb

What did Intrade (who are they again?) say about the 2008 race on 3/3/2007?

What did they say about the 2000 race on 3/3/1999?

Find out then get back with me and maybe I’ll be interested.


16 posted on 03/03/2011 11:55:42 AM PST by Larry Lucido (The "examiner" blog is the Typhoid Jane of warmed over news. Visit at your own risk!)
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To: Emperor Palpatine
Nor will I vote for Huckabee, Gingrich, or Pawlenty.

Your list looks about like mine. If the GOP runs these turds, then I really will just sit back and let the cards fall as they might. Representative government has pretty much come to a close anyway.

17 posted on 03/03/2011 11:55:47 AM PST by GingisK
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To: Artemis Webb

There is no way on this earth I will vote for Romney. If that’s the choice forced on me I will not vote at all, I’d be done with the whole process.


18 posted on 03/03/2011 11:56:49 AM PST by Pilated
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To: GingisK
Your list looks about like mine. If the GOP runs these turds, then I really will just sit back and let the cards fall as they might. Representative government has pretty much come to a close anyway.

Vote, at least in the US House and Senate elections. As for the top of the ticket, I'll write in Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, or Michelle Bachmann if the RINO wing of the party chooses another McCain. That's if I don't write in John Galt and go completely Galt.

19 posted on 03/03/2011 12:01:20 PM PST by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: Pollster1
Vote, at least in the US House and Senate elections. As for the top of the ticket, I'll write in Sarah Palin...

I'll always vote for the fed & state reps. Your tactics are excellent.

20 posted on 03/03/2011 12:09:50 PM PST by GingisK
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To: Huck
Who would you rather see win? Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels?

No, no and no. Thank you.

21 posted on 03/03/2011 12:19:01 PM PST by pgyanke (Republicans get in trouble when not living up to their principles. Democrats... when they do.)
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To: surfer

Its all BS, there is no liquidity in these things and very easy to manipulate.
Probably the best money spent for going after someone like Palin probably cost them a couple thousand bucks.

To say its simply traders is nonsense it is to be used like the gentleman who posted it to make it look like the most conservative and best candidates have little chance.


22 posted on 03/03/2011 12:24:30 PM PST by USSR Didnt Fall
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To: surfer

Its all BS, there is no liquidity in these things and very easy to manipulate.
Probably the best money spent for going after someone like Palin probably cost them a couple thousand bucks.

To say its simply traders is nonsense it is to be used like the gentleman who posted it to make it look like the most conservative and best candidates have little chance.


23 posted on 03/03/2011 12:24:41 PM PST by USSR Didnt Fall
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To: pgyanke

I get it. Some people can’t handle tough, real-world choices.


24 posted on 03/03/2011 12:28:50 PM PST by Huck (Antifederalist Brutus was right!)
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To: Pollster1
As for the top of the ticket, I'll write in Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, or Michelle Bachmann if the RINO wing of the party chooses another McCain. That's if I don't write in John Galt and go completely Galt.

LOL. Might as well write-in Barack Obama. Same result.

25 posted on 03/03/2011 12:30:14 PM PST by Huck (Antifederalist Brutus was right!)
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To: GingisK
"Notice to GOP: I won’t cast a vote for Romney."

ME neither

Or ANY Of the rehashed old has-beens

26 posted on 03/03/2011 12:31:13 PM PST by Mr. K (Job #1 is to DEFUND THE LEFT~!!!!)
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To: Huck
Might as well write-in Barack Obama. Same result.

The GOP picks do not represent me, and are sure to continue with the SOS. If the GOP wants me to vote for thier candidate, it is up to them to present one that is suitable. I have grown weary of "the least of two evils" approach. If the GOP can't find a suitable candidate, then the GOP needs to dissolve.

27 posted on 03/03/2011 12:45:54 PM PST by GingisK
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To: Huck
Might as well write-in Barack Obama. Same result.

Writing in Barack Obama would achieve the same result, except for the relatively minor symbolism, and it's a better result than having Romney hold office for 4-8 years and allowing ObamaCare and the other socialist policies to stand through another administration. IRomneyCare put Romney on my "no way" list. If it's Romney or Obama in 2012, I'd rather wait until 2016 to get a conservative republican in our White House. The point is not for some historian to check off the "GOP" box. The point is to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic, to preserve freedom, and to roll back communism and socialism in America. I will not vote for someone who will not support the Constitution, and I will not vote for someone who approves of socialism.

28 posted on 03/03/2011 12:47:22 PM PST by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: Huck
I get it. Some people can’t handle tough, real-world choices.

No, some people can't handle the nomination process which vets candidates and gives us the opportunity to make our own choices. At this stage in the process for the 2008 election, we were told we had to get behind Guiliani or else...

The condescending, early horse trading, name-calling, bullying tactics of single-minded ideologues really aren't helpful at this stage.

29 posted on 03/03/2011 12:51:07 PM PST by pgyanke (Republicans get in trouble when not living up to their principles. Democrats... when they do.)
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To: GingisK; Pollster1

You guys crack me up.


30 posted on 03/03/2011 12:56:17 PM PST by Huck (Antifederalist Brutus was right!)
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To: pgyanke

Then answer the question: If it comes down to Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels, who would be the best of the three? I think it’s Daniels.


31 posted on 03/03/2011 1:00:09 PM PST by Huck (Antifederalist Brutus was right!)
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To: Huck
Then answer the question: If it comes down to Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels, who would be the best of the three? I think it’s Daniels.

No. I am sick to death of the lesser of evils and idiotic what-if polling. I will fight tooth and nail to ensure that none of these three rise to the top. This type of MSM-fueled horse-trading is what got us in our last predicament.

32 posted on 03/03/2011 1:05:24 PM PST by pgyanke (Republicans get in trouble when not living up to their principles. Democrats... when they do.)
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To: Huck
Then answer the question: If it comes down to Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels, who would be the best of the three? I think it’s Daniels.

An uninspiring trio, but Pawlenty annoys me the least. Romney is a liberal and Mitch has his foot in his mouth way too much the last few months.

33 posted on 03/03/2011 1:07:01 PM PST by NeoCaveman (Hu's your daddy)
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To: pgyanke

So who do you want to vote for?


34 posted on 03/03/2011 1:13:12 PM PST by Huck (Antifederalist Brutus was right!)
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To: Huck

Again, I don’t like to get into early horse trading. However, my current favorite remains Sarah Palin. She is the most consistent and the most on-message. She also registers in all straw polls (at varying levels). She’s driving the debate and the liberals crazy... I like that in a candidate. Everyone else gets their courage to speak and talking points from her.

Case in point is the AZ shooting... EVERYONE else was silent and agreeing with the “civility” call from the Dems until Sarah came out with her very strong message. THEN, others joined her chorus. We’ll see what the future holds...


35 posted on 03/03/2011 1:22:52 PM PST by pgyanke (Republicans get in trouble when not living up to their principles. Democrats... when they do.)
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To: pgyanke

I don’t think Daniels worries about what Mrs. Palin thinks. His message is different.


36 posted on 03/03/2011 1:28:13 PM PST by Huck (Antifederalist Brutus was right!)
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To: Artemis Webb

I will vote for whoever runs against Obama. He is that bad.


37 posted on 03/03/2011 1:30:34 PM PST by dforest
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To: GingisK

Not true.


38 posted on 03/03/2011 1:32:23 PM PST by dforest
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To: Artemis Webb
Intrade is essentially an on-line betting game, and past experience indicates that the results are not trustworthy.

What we're looking at here, is the bookie's report on bets placed by a doubly self-selecting group; and of that group, the subset who use Intrade at all, and those who choose to bet on this particular race.

Fun, if you like watching people play poker, but not to be taken seriously.

39 posted on 03/03/2011 1:39:56 PM PST by r9etb
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To: Artemis Webb

Okay, that’s the “decent, dignified Republican loser who knows how to give a great concession speech” list. Where’s the list of who they’re betting on to win?


40 posted on 03/03/2011 1:45:36 PM PST by RichInOC (Palin 2012: BOOM. Taste My Cluebat!)
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