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Hot Air Candidate Survey: 4th of July Weekend Results (She's back!)
Hot Air ^ | July 3, 2011 | Patrick Ishmael

Posted on 07/03/2011 8:05:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.

Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.

Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.

(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.) Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up. There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.

But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.

Which pretty well explains this outcome:

Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right. Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.

The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.

(GRAPHIC AT LINK)


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: bachmann; hotair; palin; romney; sarahpalin
Comments?
1 posted on 07/03/2011 8:05:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Interesting analysis, but all the dynamics of the race will change when Palin actually announces. Expect her to suck the air out of everyone else’s balloons when that happens.


2 posted on 07/03/2011 8:15:47 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin is not running.

Earlier... [Liberal Media Biased] HotAir bashes Conservative Tea Parties, etc

The Left is hoping for Palin to be "the one". Early on the Democrats felt they had a better chance against her. Thus, be aware of wolves in sheep's clothing.

However, Rasmussen called a true driving force in American politics could suggest that any of the candidates could beat Obama with these percentages:


3 posted on 07/03/2011 8:20:22 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator.

What a bunch of crap.

How is it that this analysis, like a lot of the other ABP analyses, states that Palin would be a coronator but not good enough to be a candidate? That is illogical.

If Palin is such a weak candidate, and has her detractors like to say, has such high negatives, candidates wouldn't want her support. They'd be running away from her support.

As for Hot Air, since Michelle Malkin sold the site, it has taken more of a tilt towards the "moderate" Republican, or as I prefer to call it, the squishy middle. Funny how they take a poll, see the winner of the poll, yet determine the one who came in second is the actual winner.

Geez, I get it already, Hot Air doesn't like Gov. Palin as a lot of the "moderate" wing doesn't like her.

Now the big question for all those clairvoyants who know that Palin is not running. Where will Palin supporters go? Bachmann? Maybe, maybe not. Romney? No chance. Perry? probably.

4 posted on 07/03/2011 8:32:27 PM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

HA projections are no better than any other. Based on historical trends, the R nominee will be a Governor with executive experience, not someone who has never even won a statewide election. That means Romney, or Perry or Palin, should they enter the race.


5 posted on 07/03/2011 8:35:21 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: Rational Thought
HA is the only “conservative” blog run by trolls. A$$holepundit (a liberal Republican) has been a Romney fan and hates Palin with a passion. Morressy is an “Establishment Republican” who favors T-Paw and Tina was hired for her looks.

Lately HA has really been pimping Bachmann, not because they like Bachmann, but because they see her as a means of stopping Palin.

6 posted on 07/03/2011 8:40:47 PM PDT by bwc2221
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To: Rational Thought
“Now the big question for all those clairvoyants who know that Palin is not running. Where will Palin supporters go? Bachmann? Maybe, maybe not. Romney? No chance. Perry? probably.”

I agree. Bachmann shot herself in the foot when she hired Rollins and then didn't personally publicly apologize for Rollins comments. Most Palin supporters - I'm one - currently view Bachmann as a self-serving opportunist.

7 posted on 07/03/2011 8:45:53 PM PDT by bwc2221
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To: bwc2221

Spot on.

Below are their results over the past four months. Notice the candidate who has seen their support steadily rising.

Summary of Hot Air GOP presidential polls since April:

Apr 4 May 15 June 2 June 16 July 3

PALIN 33.0% 32 .04% 34.91% 36.48% 36.94%

CAIN 11.0% 21.13% 15.78% 8.98% 6.68%

ROMNEY 11.0% 3.11% 6.58% 7.55% 6.30%

PAWLENTY 9.0% 6.51% 6.17% 5.28% ~4%

BACHMANN 7.0% 3.81% 2.52% 11.20% 19.95%

PERRY -— —— 24.13% 14.07% 18.91%

GINGRICH 2.0% 2.08% 0.24% 0.56% <1%


8 posted on 07/03/2011 8:47:24 PM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: All; Rational Thought
Now the big question for all those clairvoyants who know that Palin is not running. Where will Palin supporters go? Bachmann? Maybe, maybe not. Romney? No chance. Perry? probably.

Despite the claims around here that it's gospel truth Bachmann has no chance with Palin supporters because of "backstabbing," the survey showed her only 11% behind Perry as their second choice.

9 posted on 07/03/2011 9:20:19 PM PDT by newzjunkey (2012 prediction? Obama wins reelection.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Just a reminder to all who may have forgotten. Palin ENDORSED John McCain for the Arizona seat — and now look what we got.


10 posted on 07/03/2011 9:21:09 PM PDT by famousdayandyear
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Off topic, but I just saw where Greta Van Susteren is in Alaska right now. Doesn’t John Coale (Greta’s husband) still work for Palin?


11 posted on 07/03/2011 9:25:54 PM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: famousdayandyear

We got the very same thing we would have had if she didn’t support him, except for the screaming of how disloyal and ungrateful she is for not supporting the man who introduced her to America.


12 posted on 07/03/2011 9:29:59 PM PDT by curth (Sarah Palin: THE Genuine Article - Accept No Cheap Imitation)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama wins reelection.


13 posted on 07/03/2011 9:30:16 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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To: famousdayandyear; Rational Thought
Just a reminder to all who may have forgotten. Palin ENDORSED John McCain for the Arizona seat — and now look what we got.

Ironically it was just posted:

"Most Palin supporters - I'm one - currently view Bachmann as a self-serving opportunist."

14 posted on 07/03/2011 9:31:24 PM PDT by Prokopton
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To: newzjunkey
It all makes for conversation (some very passionate), but the reality is these early polls mean very little for a caucus 7 months away.

I'm actually still quite suspect of Bachmann being a top tier candidate. I know what the polls say, which were based upon the glowing media reports of the last debate, but that debate really wasn't a debate. It was more a campaign infomercial for the various candidates. Point being, from what I've seen of her, I'm not so sure she will do so well if challenged (as indicated by some of her TV interviews over the past four years).

I like her Conservative message, don't get me wrong. I'm just not sold (just yet) that she's who she claims to be. Where she will have problems is on her lack of a record, which at some point will be brought up (since she isn't a Democrat). It's hard enough for a member of the House to make a successful run. But, a member of the House with no major accomplishment? I don't know.

15 posted on 07/03/2011 9:45:12 PM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: Rational Thought

No he never worked for Palin.


16 posted on 07/03/2011 9:46:07 PM PDT by free me (Sarah Palin 2012 - GAME ON!!)
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To: Prokopton
If memory serves me, Bachmann wasn't out campaigning for J.D. Hayworth, nor did she endorse Hayworth. I seem to recall her public statement was something to the effect that was for the people of Arizona to decide.

I don't think many endorsed Hayworth....maybe Cain did?

17 posted on 07/03/2011 9:53:11 PM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: free me
Since I posted, I did a search. He did in fact work for Palin, and appears to still be associated with her.

http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&source=hp&q=john+coale+and+sarah+palin&aq=0v&aqi=g-v3&aql=t&oq=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=c488823cce0a6f39&biw=1280&bih=598

18 posted on 07/03/2011 9:59:51 PM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: Rational Thought; Prokopton
If memory serves me, Bachmann wasn't out campaigning for J.D. Hayworth, nor did she endorse Hayworth. I seem to recall her public statement was something to the effect that was for the people of Arizona to decide.

Michele liked them both.

Bachmann April 2010: I know both gentlemen, and they’re both honorable men.

Link

19 posted on 07/03/2011 10:48:29 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: fight_truth_decay; 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah Palin is not running.

I'm sure you, the left, and the GOP establishment hope that to be true, however, everything that Sarah Palin has done since the 2008 election screams otherwise.

Keep telling yourself that if it makes yourself feel better.
20 posted on 07/03/2011 11:45:04 PM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have taken part in this poll ever since I have heard of it. I remember thinking it odd the other day when I received the link to go and vote.

Maybe it was always like this and I just never noticed?

It said feel free to send this around anywhere!

For sure I voted for Gov Palin as always, but wondered if it could just as easily be hi jacked by Bachman supporters or anybodies supporters.

So I really have a hard time with the dire warning for Gov Palin in this result.

I do not believe in the “science” of political polling at any level, so do not get me started.

For sure the Bachmann supporters can send this to anybody, Democrats,Rep establishment folks would vote for Bachmann/anybody because of their hatred/fear of Gov Palin.

Same deal for Bachmann`s latest fund raising that she is holding off on announcing until the 15th...I will not trust whatever she says. How much money will be from Chris Matthews/Andrea Mitchell/Charles Krautthammer/the Weekly Standard/Larry Flynt/Michael Moore etc etc

These same folks will probably be voting in the Hot Air poll, if they have already not.


21 posted on 07/04/2011 6:08:57 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN OR BUST)
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To: Rational Thought

I have taken part in this poll ever since I have heard of it. I remember thinking it odd the other day when I received the link to go and vote.

Maybe it was always like this and I just never noticed?

It said feel free to send this around anywhere!

For sure I voted for Gov Palin as always, but wondered if it could just as easily be hi jacked by Bachman supporters or anybodies supporters.

So I really have a hard time with the dire warning for Gov Palin in this result.

I do not believe in the “science” of political polling at any level, so do not get me started.

For sure the Bachmann supporters can send this to anybody, Democrats,Rep establishment folks would vote for Bachmann/anybody because of their hatred/fear of Gov Palin.

Same deal for Bachmann`s latest fund raising that she is holding off on announcing until the 15th...I will not trust whatever she says. How much money will be from Chris Matthews/Andrea Mitchell/Charles Krautthammer/the Weekly Standard/Larry Flynt/Michael Moore etc etc

These same folks will probably be voting in the Hot Air poll, if they have already not.


22 posted on 07/04/2011 6:13:00 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN OR BUST)
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To: Friendofgeorge; All

On the Hot Air poll, which Governor Palin won in a landslide over Bachmann and Perry, 37-20-19:

Hot Air tries to spin it as bad news for Palin because, by their calculus of the second choices, in a one on one race between Palin and either Bachmann or Perry, she is in a dead heat with both. They get this result because their poll only lets you vote if you give them your second choice. It forces you to make a second choice whether you have one or not. So their analysis is based upon the artificial portion of the poll and is therefore bogus.

All you need to know about the Hot Air polls is that Sarah Palin has won every one of them. By a country mile.


23 posted on 07/04/2011 6:54:28 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Not meaning to be a downer, but these kind of polls are pretty meaningless. Any poll this far out is meaningless.


24 posted on 07/04/2011 6:57:14 AM PDT by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: Lakeshark
Not before Labor Day...it will be a long 60 days for the Palin fans..
25 posted on 07/04/2011 7:29:02 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Rational Thought

He was an informal adviser to Palin. He never “worked” for her.

You can review SARAHPAC’s filings yourself where you will see no payments made to him.

Here’s an excerpt from one of those articles you linked:

“Coale, in an interview with the Fix, described himself simply as a “friend” of the Alaska governor but acknowledged that he suggested she start a leadership PAC and helped her navigate through some of the questions surrounding her family that lingered after the campaign.”


26 posted on 07/04/2011 8:13:08 AM PDT by free me (Sarah Palin 2012 - GAME ON!!)
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To: Brices Crossroads

Thanks..Yes I have taken part in every single one for some time.

There`s one part in the poll , where 2nd choice has the option of selecting other, I select other and write in Sarah Palin or bust.

After that, the “other” option is not there, and you have to fill in every selection.

The last one had a choice between just Palin and Bachmann, PALIN FOR SURE!

Then Bachmann or Perry, so for sure I select Perry.

My only point was this...when you send something around that says tell all your friends and neighbors to vote, it could be open to shenanigans..Glad that Gov Palin is still winning it!

However for the record, I am not a believer in the so called “science” of polling...speaking mostly of the LSM polls, which btw does include Fox and Ras etc etc.


27 posted on 07/04/2011 2:50:53 PM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN OR BUST)
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