Posted on 07/03/2011 8:05:47 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.
Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.
Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.
(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.) Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up. There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.
But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.
Which pretty well explains this outcome:
Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right. Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.
The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.
(GRAPHIC AT LINK)
I have taken part in this poll ever since I have heard of it. I remember thinking it odd the other day when I received the link to go and vote.
Maybe it was always like this and I just never noticed?
It said feel free to send this around anywhere!
For sure I voted for Gov Palin as always, but wondered if it could just as easily be hi jacked by Bachman supporters or anybodies supporters.
So I really have a hard time with the dire warning for Gov Palin in this result.
I do not believe in the “science” of political polling at any level, so do not get me started.
For sure the Bachmann supporters can send this to anybody, Democrats,Rep establishment folks would vote for Bachmann/anybody because of their hatred/fear of Gov Palin.
Same deal for Bachmann`s latest fund raising that she is holding off on announcing until the 15th...I will not trust whatever she says. How much money will be from Chris Matthews/Andrea Mitchell/Charles Krautthammer/the Weekly Standard/Larry Flynt/Michael Moore etc etc
These same folks will probably be voting in the Hot Air poll, if they have already not.
I have taken part in this poll ever since I have heard of it. I remember thinking it odd the other day when I received the link to go and vote.
Maybe it was always like this and I just never noticed?
It said feel free to send this around anywhere!
For sure I voted for Gov Palin as always, but wondered if it could just as easily be hi jacked by Bachman supporters or anybodies supporters.
So I really have a hard time with the dire warning for Gov Palin in this result.
I do not believe in the “science” of political polling at any level, so do not get me started.
For sure the Bachmann supporters can send this to anybody, Democrats,Rep establishment folks would vote for Bachmann/anybody because of their hatred/fear of Gov Palin.
Same deal for Bachmann`s latest fund raising that she is holding off on announcing until the 15th...I will not trust whatever she says. How much money will be from Chris Matthews/Andrea Mitchell/Charles Krautthammer/the Weekly Standard/Larry Flynt/Michael Moore etc etc
These same folks will probably be voting in the Hot Air poll, if they have already not.
On the Hot Air poll, which Governor Palin won in a landslide over Bachmann and Perry, 37-20-19:
Hot Air tries to spin it as bad news for Palin because, by their calculus of the second choices, in a one on one race between Palin and either Bachmann or Perry, she is in a dead heat with both. They get this result because their poll only lets you vote if you give them your second choice. It forces you to make a second choice whether you have one or not. So their analysis is based upon the artificial portion of the poll and is therefore bogus.
All you need to know about the Hot Air polls is that Sarah Palin has won every one of them. By a country mile.
Not meaning to be a downer, but these kind of polls are pretty meaningless. Any poll this far out is meaningless.
He was an informal adviser to Palin. He never “worked” for her.
You can review SARAHPAC’s filings yourself where you will see no payments made to him.
Here’s an excerpt from one of those articles you linked:
“Coale, in an interview with the Fix, described himself simply as a “friend” of the Alaska governor but acknowledged that he suggested she start a leadership PAC and helped her navigate through some of the questions surrounding her family that lingered after the campaign.”
Thanks..Yes I have taken part in every single one for some time.
There`s one part in the poll , where 2nd choice has the option of selecting other, I select other and write in Sarah Palin or bust.
After that, the “other” option is not there, and you have to fill in every selection.
The last one had a choice between just Palin and Bachmann, PALIN FOR SURE!
Then Bachmann or Perry, so for sure I select Perry.
My only point was this...when you send something around that says tell all your friends and neighbors to vote, it could be open to shenanigans..Glad that Gov Palin is still winning it!
However for the record, I am not a believer in the so called “science” of polling...speaking mostly of the LSM polls, which btw does include Fox and Ras etc etc.
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