Skip to comments.Gingrich Has Momentum Heading Into FL Primaries-Romney loses frontrunner status(NG 41, MR 31)
Posted on 01/25/2012 12:00:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
BRADENTON Coming off a big win in South Carolina and polling out front here in the Sunshine State, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich seems to have the momentum heading into Florida's presidential primary on January 31. After winning South Carolina by a wide margin, a recent Rasmussen poll has him nearly 10 points ahead of Romney at 41 and 31 percent respectively.
Romney's slide has also now extended into the national polls, where he is also plunging, having dropped 10 points to fall behind the former House Speaker. As the two prospective candidates continue to wage a bloody battle, President Obama seems to have gained the most, as his favorability ratings recently hit a one-year high this month, climbing to 53 percent in a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, as he headed into last night's State of the Union address. Gingrich was in Sarasota for a well-attended stump speech yesterday and did not even name Romney, focusing his attack squarely on the President.
South Carolina's size and winner take all delegate procedure gave Gingrich the delegate lead, as well as the popular vote total so far. Gingrich has 23 delegates, while Romney has 19, Santorum 12 and Paul 3, but keep in mind that there are 2,285 total delegates, which means a candidate has to secure 1,144 of them to lock down the nomination. In the GOP's system, some of the states pledge the delegates proportionately, while others are committed to giving all of them to the winner.
While Florida has been penalized half of their 99 delegates for moving their primary ahead of the earliest allowed date this year, they still will have the most delegates up for grabs so far, in another winner-take-all event. Nevertheless, with a four-man race likely to go on for some time, it is conceivable that the race will not be won until California awards its 172 delegates in early June.
Polling data presents a complicated picture for Gingrich. Always a polarizing figure, just as many voters seem to disapprove of him as do approve. He struggles with independents, but has gained considerable ground with Tea Partiers and Evangelicals. Where he clearly polls best is in Republican voter's belief in who can most likely beat President Obama in the fall -- a confidence Romney has been largely unable to inspire.
When an even closer look is taken, it seems that Gingrich and Santorum are the candidates whose supporters are most favorable of the other, meaning it is most likely that if anyone is splitting a certain voting bloc, it is the two of them, and either stands the greatest chance of a significant bump from a candidate's exit, should the other decide to drop out though that seems unlikely in either case at least right now.
Congressman Ron Paul's supporters poll as the least flexible, indicating that their support would be least likely to go to another candidate, should he exit the race. It also means that his supporters are least likely to flea in light of a bad performance in states like South Carolina or Florida, where he lacks broad support, which could help him on February 28 when both Michigan and Arizona go to the polls two states where Paul has polled well.
Mitt Romney seems to have a certain base of supporters that sits beneath a flexible amount of lukewarm support that was ready to rally behind him as the presumptive candidate, while remaining open to nearly any scenario where they feel they can viably nominate someone else. Romney has suffered large and almost continuous fluctuations in the polls that seem to have less to do with him, then the desire to audition alternatives.
If Gingrich wins Florida by a margin similar to the Rasmussen poll, that leaves Governor Romney one for four in the early primaries, which might be all Republicans need to fully swallow the notion that he's unelectable in a general election. At the same time, if poor performances in the next couple of contests by Santorum do manage to cause his exit, it might be enough to help the surging Gingrich pull away for good.
someone cue the imperial march music- vader returns and he finds your lack of faith disturbing.
It is amazing that so many people are able to look through what has been thrown at them, they must be having a heck of a political experience down there in Florida.
Didn’t something weird happen there back in 2000? I seem to remember some incident, but can’t put my finger on it.
Like they say in sales: “If it were easy, everybody’d be doing it and it wouldn’t pay nuthin’!”
“I seem to remember some incident, but cant put my finger on it.”
If you are talking about the recount, that wasn’t my first thought.
My first thought was the Gore campaign buying a marketing group’s time, two weeks before the election, to call the Jewish people in FL to tell them they may have mistakenly voted for Buchanan.
Can you put your finger on another event?
Green Iguana. Look it up.
You just reminded me that I have a brother who lives in Florida, he participated in that 2000 event.
I looked it up. It’s a very large lizard.
I am not for Gingrich as a first choice—he certainly would get my vote over Obama in the General if he were the GOP nominee, but indeed I am happy to see Mr. Romney be brought down a couple of notches, as he is the worst one up there save Ron Paul. Of course, things have been so volatile to-date for Election 2012-GOP, there is not any doubt in my mind that something completely different could be the case a month from now — the way the mass media pumps candidates up, and then unceremoniously knocks them down.
The Talk of the Green Iguana
LOL! I saw the bar, the Green Iguana, but didn’t know where you were heading.
He’s orange, too. ;o)
Romney never was "THE frontrunner"...he's been a media myth propped up by both the MSM & establishment Republicans...
Not including caucus campaigns, he's 0-17 in races "on the road" (away from his home turf). He's not a viable candidate. All four sections of the country (South, Midwest, West, East) have rejected him.
Someone pinch me! Who could've imagined this just a month ago. [2ndDivisionVet]
The Mythster was propped up by media mythsters who figured they could force-feed him upon voters and stampede people into voting for him.
"If you want to talk about someone who's been an unreliable conservative, Speaker Gingrich sat down on a couch with Nancy Pelosi to talk about global warming and support cap and trade." Mitt Romney
“Romney never was “THE frontrunner”...he’s been a media myth propped up by both the MSM & establishment Republicans... “
Romney is the man to beat as long as conservatives split the vote between Newt and the other guy who wants to censor the internet.
That bugs me