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2012 Presidential Election Forecast: You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet Compared to What's Coming
EIN News ^ | February 20, 2012 | Joe Rothstein

Posted on 02/20/2012 8:52:08 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

At various times over the past few months the political media pack has obsessed that, in turn, Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, or Newt Gingrich could be the surprise presidential nominee for the Republican Party. There was even a boomlet for Donald Trump.

Given that recent pundit history, and with confidence that I can be as wrong as the next person, I’m not at all reluctant to now make my prediction for how the 2012 race for the White House will finally resolve:

It will be a three-way contest: Christie and Rubio, the Republicans; Obama and Clinton, the Democrats; Bloomberg and Huntsman, the Americans-Elect ticket.

Let’s go through the steps that lead me here.

First, Americans Elect.

This is the most well-funded, highest profile third party challenge since Ross Perot upended presidential politics in 1992. Perot won 19 per cent of the November vote that year.

So far, Americans Elect has been flying under the media radar while qualifying for the November ballot in most states. It already has about half a million people signed up to vote in a June on-line “nominating convention” for President.

No major public figure has yet agreed to run as an Americans Elect candidate, but New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg draws the most speculation. And why not? The $20 million seed money that got Americans Elect started funneled mostly out of his neighborhood, and one of his former paid political guns is highly visible in the effort.

If Bloomberg takes the “nomination” he can pretty much self-fund the campaign with his own billion dollar fortune and the support of mega-donors close to him. Why would he do it? To become a serious third force in American politics and help determine who becomes President in 2013. More on that later.

Next, here’s how I get to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for the Republicans. It’s not that far-fetched, once you see the possibilities for a deadlocked Republican convention.

Ron Paul’s merry band of Libertarians will surely arrive at Tampa 200 to 300 strong (10 to 15 per cent of the total number of 2286 delegates). Newt Gingrich already has 38 delegates and by the time the southern states have voted he’s also likely to have 200 to 300 or more. Together, Paul and Gingrich should account for 25 to 30 percent of the convention's votes. The result: either Romney or Santorum would need to win roughly two-thirds of the remaining delegate votes to cobble together a majority.

Here’s what makes that exceedingly difficult: Most states are not winner-take-all primaries, which mutes Romney’s money advantage. And states that are, like California and New Jersey, are delegate rich and not particularly in tune with Santorum’s anti-contraception, a-woman’s-place-is-in-the-home thinking.

Ron Paul could join forces with Romney in Tampa, but by then Romney will be such damaged goods that the financial wing of the Republican Party would see him as loser in November. Republican congressional leaders would be in panic that Romney at the top of the ticket would mean political disaster at the bottom. The powers-that-be would almost certainly pull the plug on Romney if they have the chance.

Gingrich and Santorum could pool their votes for one or the other but that likely wouldn’t add up to 50 per cent.

After one or two indecisive but publicly riveting ballots, the New Jersey delegation would abandon Romney and nominate Christie. Would Christie, despite his long stream of “nos” now say “yes?” Certainly. He’d be looking at polls that showed him beating Obama, he’d have promises of an unlimited money belt to pay for the campaign, and he would have avoided the primary election thicket and get to September unscathed.

This would infuriate the extreme right wing of the Republican Party and create some defections. But adding Rubio to the ticket would be consolation while undercutting Obama’s advantage with Latino voters.

Out of the wreckage of the Republican primaries would emerge a ticket that changes the dynamic of the race. Suddenly the Republican Party would look sort of mainstream again. New Jersey would no longer be safe for the Democrats. Florida would no longer in play for them. Republican Senate and Congressional races that looked iffy would be energized. Post GOP convention polls would show Christie leading Obama by 5 to 10 points.

What would the White House do to counter this new threat?

It’s obvious. Biden would leave the ticket with a promise to become secretary of state. Hillary Clinton would replace him as vice president. Would Biden do that? Certainly. He’s a team player and he’s out of a job anyway if Obama loses to Christie. Would Clinton do it? Certainly. She’s also a team player and no woman would pass on the possibility of being the first woman vice president in history. Besides, vice president would be an easier job than the one that’s clearly wearing Clinton out now.

The Democratic base would light up with Hillary on the ticket. Democrats would leave their convention in Charlotte with polls showing an Obama-Christie race now dead even.

And Bloomberg? Most likely, Bloomberg would be at least where Perot was in 1992, with about 20 percent in the polls. But unlike Perot, Bloomberg actually would have a chance to win electoral votes: New York, some of New England, maybe even Florida. Winning a few states in an otherwise close Obama-Christie contest could throw the decision about who will be the next President into the House of Representatives.

Recognizing that possibility, competitive congressional contests all over the U.S. suddenly would become proxies for the presidential battleground.

Implausible? Just go back and review what happened in 2011. Bachmann? Cain? Gingrich? Trump? Compared with that, my forecast seems rather tame, don’t you think?


TOPICS: Florida; Campaign News; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: chrischristie; hillary; obama; rubio

1 posted on 02/20/2012 8:52:14 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Americans Elect has been flying under the media radar

I guess you could say that.

FReepers are pretty well informed. I'm as well or better informed than most.

This post is the first I've ever heard of these guys.

2 posted on 02/20/2012 8:55:15 AM PST by wbill
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This guy must be smoking some incredible weed.


3 posted on 02/20/2012 8:57:45 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Fairy tales can come true, they can happen to you,....”


4 posted on 02/20/2012 8:58:59 AM PST by Signalman
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

All of this is giving me a headache. I can’t believe the Republican Party is throwing away the opportunity to get rid of Obama, but that’s what it is looking like. It’s a hell of a note when we have to pray for skyrocketing Gas prices and unemployment to stand a chance of winning, but that seems to be where we are.


5 posted on 02/20/2012 8:59:47 AM PST by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: Signalman

“Young At Heart”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4TbdTyriN4


6 posted on 02/20/2012 9:00:45 AM PST by Signalman
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I can easily see Bloomberg running a third party race. He has the ego and the wallet to match.

I can't see Huntsman joining him. He's relatively young and has an actual future in the GOP. If he can shed the global warming crap, he might actually be an attractive candidate. Someday but not now.

But once again, there is not conservative option on this three part menu. The fat guy from NJ would be the only thing close, fiscally at least.

7 posted on 02/20/2012 9:02:00 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Georgia Girl 2
This guy must be smoking some incredible weed.

Probably laced with a little PCP

8 posted on 02/20/2012 9:04:47 AM PST by cpdiii (Deckhand, Roughneck, Mud Man, Geologist, Pilot, Pharmacist. THE CONSTITUTION IS WORTH DYING FOR!)
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To: Georgia Girl 2
yup.

I could see a brokered convention. Maybe. But Chris Christie?

And, from what I've read on FR, Rubio isn't able to run, for the same things that should have stopped BO in his tracks. Not that the Constitution matters anymore.

AND, Hillary! ain't playing 2nd fiddle to no one. I could see her going toe-to-toe with BO, before she'd willingly accept the VP slot. Besides, BO wouldn't want a qualifed, competent (comaratively) person for his VP, anyway. He only picked Biden as an insurance policy to eliminate the *smart* people who'd want to boot him out of office.

I'd say that it's more likely for Bloomberg and/or Trump to figure out a way into the race. Mostly just because of their enormous egoes, and they have the money to stroke them.

9 posted on 02/20/2012 9:05:57 AM PST by wbill
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The fat boy was just applauded for lowering flags to half staff in NJ in memory of some singer who killed herself with illegal drugs. The money she spent goes to increase the wealth of Mexican cartels.

Yep...she’s a hero.

Meantime US veterans get spit upon by liberal politicians and the media.

You want THIS guy at the top of a ticket???

Man, this guy needs to check his meds.


10 posted on 02/20/2012 9:08:39 AM PST by kjo
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Weed??? This guy is on LSD or some other crazy hallucinagen!!!


11 posted on 02/20/2012 9:12:33 AM PST by cork
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This scenario is as realistic as the current Clown Show, known by some as a “Republican Primary”.

Lemmings on Parade!


12 posted on 02/20/2012 9:13:31 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: Vigilanteman

I’ve been aware of Americans Elect for some time now. I can easily see Bloomberg running on that ticket. I, too, question if Hunstman would join him. But the real question is who Bloomberg would hurt most? Would the (R) previously after his name hurt the GOP ticket or would his mostly liberal ideology hurt Obama?


13 posted on 02/20/2012 9:15:35 AM PST by Tatze (I reject your reality and substitute my own!)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

The weed is probably not that good.


14 posted on 02/20/2012 9:16:40 AM PST by Prospero
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“...Christie and Rubio, the Republicans;...”
IMO, I don’t think Christie would ‘play’ well outside the Tri-state area. Rubio has his issues with citizenship, ie were his parents given citizen ship in the US before he was born. Many articles on past FR posts.


15 posted on 02/20/2012 9:19:38 AM PST by duckman (Go Newt...)
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To: kjo
"You want THIS guy at the top of a ticket???"

No, but Ann Coulter sure does. Milt is only her second choice.

16 posted on 02/20/2012 9:23:16 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: Tatze
Your question can be easily answered by asking which group will turn out more to pull the “R” or “D” lever the most robotically even if they are illegal or deceased.
17 posted on 02/20/2012 9:27:48 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: kjo
Well, the “fat boy” didn't do anything wild. NJ has a history of lowering the flag for singers that hail from that state. Sinatra and the guy from the E Street Band, if memory serves me. Do I love the idea? No. But is it a huge deal...to most, no.

I think Christie is very pro veteran. Unless you know something I don't.

The article is thought provoking. I like the thought of “fat boy” whooping that skinny Kenyan’s butt at a debate. I like Rubio...don't know if the NBC would be a sticking point. Rubio in the VP slot would be excellent.

Actually I day dream about Paul Ryan/Bobby Jindal. It's not any crazier than Christie/Rubio. I would take either set over what we have to choose from now. I won't be surprised if there is a wild and woolly nomination process. We are living in very, very weird times.

18 posted on 02/20/2012 9:31:58 AM PST by Pigsley
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

“You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet Compared to What’s Coming”

I’ve been trying to warn freepers about this for over a year.

This is going to be the most vile, negative, and possibly VIOLENT election in America’s History.

These aren’t Democrats we are dealing with, anymore, but RADICAL SOCIALISTS, and Corruptocrats, who will try to hold on to power by any means, ANY MEANS, legal or illegal.

The time for sitting on your ass behind a keyboard, complaining, is over. WE have to be in the streets this time, regardless of who ends up being the candidate.

The future of our children and grandchildren literally rest on this one election. After 2006, and 2008, can you have ANY more doubt about this?


19 posted on 02/20/2012 9:32:36 AM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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FR Is Raising Money For New Servers


Click The Servers To Donate

20 posted on 02/20/2012 9:35:46 AM PST by DJ MacWoW (America! The wolves are here! What will you do?)
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To: tcrlaf

You are right!

The MSM and the “New America” has gone much further to the left than even where it was 4 years ago. The influx of Illegals, the imbalance of minorities that have now become the majority, the product of Public Schools that has grown into voting adults, etc, will all surprise a lot of people here.

Many still live in a time capsule and compare the situation of today, with the Reagan Era. It is not realistic.

The people here who see this coming election as a guarantee to who ever we pick for a candidate, are in for a very rude awakening.


21 posted on 02/20/2012 9:40:10 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in the road, take it........)
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To: tcrlaf
Bingo.

I've had a funny “feeling” about this election for many months. Actually, I think the world $$$ system is about to blow and that is what is wigging me out. That so many people don't see this...It's very clear to me that the house of cards is going to fall. Add to this the Iran situation...things are going to get bad, quick.

Any of you Mark Steyn fans that have not read his latest book should. I think he describes what is going to happen very well. It ain't pretty.

The election is something easy to focus on...so that is what I've done and that mess makes me queasy. I just don't see Santorum as the best candidate we have. Romney? Ugh. If it has to be, yeah, I'll vote for him...but HE'S the best? I think not. I'm looking forward to the convention. Will be quite interesting, I think.

22 posted on 02/20/2012 9:42:43 AM PST by Pigsley
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To: tcrlaf
The time for sitting on your ass behind a keyboard, complaining, is over. WE have to be in the streets this time, regardless of who ends up being the candidate.

So so true.

23 posted on 02/20/2012 9:55:22 AM PST by Digger (If RINO is your selection then failure is your electionAll a cop has to do is say, “I thought I saw)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
These predictions are pretty lame for the most part, but I really would not be surprised to see Hillary brought on to campaign in the VP slot of the ticket.

In fact, I expect that, and that would possibly make it key to see Palin back on the GOP ticket in the VP slot.

I would not expect Palin to get the top slot in a brokered convention, because a brokered convention requires some compromise, and I think the delegates are mostly aligned with the status quo GOP-E .

24 posted on 02/20/2012 10:00:40 AM PST by Preachin' (I stand with many voters who will never vote for a pro abortion candidate.)
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To: Pigsley
I've had a funny “feeling” about this election for many months. Actually, I think the world $$$ system is about to blow and that is what is wigging me out. That so many people don't see this...It's very clear to me that the house of cards is going to fall. Add to this the Iran situation...things are going to get bad, quick.


OK, if it does fall apart, which of the current (or possible) (R) guys would be seen as the strongest to counter the situation?

Surely Obummer couldn’t win on national security.

25 posted on 02/20/2012 10:03:09 AM PST by az_gila
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To: Pigsley
I've had a funny “feeling” about this election for many months. Actually, I think the world $$$ system is about to blow and that is what is wigging me out. That so many people don't see this...It's very clear to me that the house of cards is going to fall. Add to this the Iran situation...things are going to get bad, quick.


OK, if it does fall apart, which of the current (or possible) (R) guys would be seen as the strongest to counter the situation?

Surely Obummer couldn’t win on national security.

26 posted on 02/20/2012 10:06:42 AM PST by az_gila
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
“You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet Compared to What’s Coming”

I agree with that, but doubt much of the described scenario will be the net result.

And one thing I am sure of, if Americans Elect garners more than six or seven percent, Obama is all but guaranteed of reelection. Despite a message of offering a less ideological alternative, their funding is from the left, and we would be foolish to think that they have anything else in mind besides Perot-ing this election.

This could be a very dark ride.

27 posted on 02/20/2012 10:07:05 AM PST by newheart (What this country needs is a good dose of bran. Attack Muffins Unite!)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Horse hockey -— I do believe their will be some complex maneuvers coming in the next few months with many different possible outcomes. But, this set of ideas doesn’t jell. Newt and Ron Paul? No way! Brokered convention, I don’t think so. Hillary would not take the job of VP— There will be a confusing turn of events—some natural and man made disasters, some big distractions and maybe a war. Its going to be Mittens vs Obama is my best guess—so far with some unknowns as VPs for both parties. Old white dudes is my best guess.
We shall just have to see-—Things will form up in July or August—until then—its all smoke and mirrors.


28 posted on 02/20/2012 10:25:42 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Well while we're hallucinating throw the Palin/West duo in the mix. Want to see the masses go berserk?
I mean we are talking American Idol here, not the restoration of a delusional, lethargic country in free fall?
Fortunately Rep. West will not stoop to the cult of personality frenzy.
I'll stand by my firm conviction the silliness that February hath wrought will fade like the cherry blossoms.
Newt and sanity will out. Let's see what Mr. Rothstein is smoking come the vernal equinox.
Get a grip, America!
29 posted on 02/20/2012 10:34:21 AM PST by bksanders (Old Gets Older the Older I Get)
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To: Old Retired Army Guy

“It’s a hell of a note when we have to pray for skyrocketing Gas prices and unemployment to stand a chance of winning, but that seems to be where we are.”
Well la-tee-dah, gas prices are already sky high.
Food prices, sky-high.
Electricity, you got it, everything is sky-high under the fraud-n-thief currently residing in the white hut.
And yes, it is entirely HIS fault.


30 posted on 02/20/2012 12:05:42 PM PST by 9422WMR (Life is not fair, just deal with it.)
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To: az_gila
I think they would all do about the same thing...Take advice from Petraeus and do exactly what he says. Newt, being a historian, would probably be more thoughtful...but he would end up taking Petraeus’ counsel. I think all 3 would make good presidents. Of course I'm hoping for fireworks at the convention and Christie/Ryan to be the ticket...but that's just dreaming. Christie is not as socially conservative as I would like...but I like him. Oh, how I would dearly love for him to wipe the floor with that skinny arsed little Kenyan in a debate!

I don't envy the next President. Look what he is stepping into!

31 posted on 02/20/2012 12:51:09 PM PST by Pigsley
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