Skip to comments.2012 Presidential Election Forecast: You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet Compared to What's Coming
Posted on 02/20/2012 8:52:08 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
At various times over the past few months the political media pack has obsessed that, in turn, Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, or Newt Gingrich could be the surprise presidential nominee for the Republican Party. There was even a boomlet for Donald Trump.
Given that recent pundit history, and with confidence that I can be as wrong as the next person, Im not at all reluctant to now make my prediction for how the 2012 race for the White House will finally resolve:
It will be a three-way contest: Christie and Rubio, the Republicans; Obama and Clinton, the Democrats; Bloomberg and Huntsman, the Americans-Elect ticket.
Lets go through the steps that lead me here.
First, Americans Elect.
This is the most well-funded, highest profile third party challenge since Ross Perot upended presidential politics in 1992. Perot won 19 per cent of the November vote that year.
So far, Americans Elect has been flying under the media radar while qualifying for the November ballot in most states. It already has about half a million people signed up to vote in a June on-line nominating convention for President.
No major public figure has yet agreed to run as an Americans Elect candidate, but New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg draws the most speculation. And why not? The $20 million seed money that got Americans Elect started funneled mostly out of his neighborhood, and one of his former paid political guns is highly visible in the effort.
If Bloomberg takes the nomination he can pretty much self-fund the campaign with his own billion dollar fortune and the support of mega-donors close to him. Why would he do it? To become a serious third force in American politics and help determine who becomes President in 2013. More on that later.
Next, heres how I get to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for the Republicans. Its not that far-fetched, once you see the possibilities for a deadlocked Republican convention.
Ron Pauls merry band of Libertarians will surely arrive at Tampa 200 to 300 strong (10 to 15 per cent of the total number of 2286 delegates). Newt Gingrich already has 38 delegates and by the time the southern states have voted hes also likely to have 200 to 300 or more. Together, Paul and Gingrich should account for 25 to 30 percent of the convention's votes. The result: either Romney or Santorum would need to win roughly two-thirds of the remaining delegate votes to cobble together a majority.
Heres what makes that exceedingly difficult: Most states are not winner-take-all primaries, which mutes Romneys money advantage. And states that are, like California and New Jersey, are delegate rich and not particularly in tune with Santorums anti-contraception, a-womans-place-is-in-the-home thinking.
Ron Paul could join forces with Romney in Tampa, but by then Romney will be such damaged goods that the financial wing of the Republican Party would see him as loser in November. Republican congressional leaders would be in panic that Romney at the top of the ticket would mean political disaster at the bottom. The powers-that-be would almost certainly pull the plug on Romney if they have the chance.
Gingrich and Santorum could pool their votes for one or the other but that likely wouldnt add up to 50 per cent.
After one or two indecisive but publicly riveting ballots, the New Jersey delegation would abandon Romney and nominate Christie. Would Christie, despite his long stream of nos now say yes? Certainly. Hed be looking at polls that showed him beating Obama, hed have promises of an unlimited money belt to pay for the campaign, and he would have avoided the primary election thicket and get to September unscathed.
This would infuriate the extreme right wing of the Republican Party and create some defections. But adding Rubio to the ticket would be consolation while undercutting Obamas advantage with Latino voters.
Out of the wreckage of the Republican primaries would emerge a ticket that changes the dynamic of the race. Suddenly the Republican Party would look sort of mainstream again. New Jersey would no longer be safe for the Democrats. Florida would no longer in play for them. Republican Senate and Congressional races that looked iffy would be energized. Post GOP convention polls would show Christie leading Obama by 5 to 10 points.
What would the White House do to counter this new threat?
Its obvious. Biden would leave the ticket with a promise to become secretary of state. Hillary Clinton would replace him as vice president. Would Biden do that? Certainly. Hes a team player and hes out of a job anyway if Obama loses to Christie. Would Clinton do it? Certainly. Shes also a team player and no woman would pass on the possibility of being the first woman vice president in history. Besides, vice president would be an easier job than the one thats clearly wearing Clinton out now.
The Democratic base would light up with Hillary on the ticket. Democrats would leave their convention in Charlotte with polls showing an Obama-Christie race now dead even.
And Bloomberg? Most likely, Bloomberg would be at least where Perot was in 1992, with about 20 percent in the polls. But unlike Perot, Bloomberg actually would have a chance to win electoral votes: New York, some of New England, maybe even Florida. Winning a few states in an otherwise close Obama-Christie contest could throw the decision about who will be the next President into the House of Representatives.
Recognizing that possibility, competitive congressional contests all over the U.S. suddenly would become proxies for the presidential battleground.
Implausible? Just go back and review what happened in 2011. Bachmann? Cain? Gingrich? Trump? Compared with that, my forecast seems rather tame, dont you think?
I guess you could say that.
FReepers are pretty well informed. I'm as well or better informed than most.
This post is the first I've ever heard of these guys.
This guy must be smoking some incredible weed.
“Fairy tales can come true, they can happen to you,....”
All of this is giving me a headache. I can’t believe the Republican Party is throwing away the opportunity to get rid of Obama, but that’s what it is looking like. It’s a hell of a note when we have to pray for skyrocketing Gas prices and unemployment to stand a chance of winning, but that seems to be where we are.
“Young At Heart”
I can't see Huntsman joining him. He's relatively young and has an actual future in the GOP. If he can shed the global warming crap, he might actually be an attractive candidate. Someday but not now.
But once again, there is not conservative option on this three part menu. The fat guy from NJ would be the only thing close, fiscally at least.
Probably laced with a little PCP
I could see a brokered convention. Maybe. But Chris Christie?
And, from what I've read on FR, Rubio isn't able to run, for the same things that should have stopped BO in his tracks. Not that the Constitution matters anymore.
AND, Hillary! ain't playing 2nd fiddle to no one. I could see her going toe-to-toe with BO, before she'd willingly accept the VP slot. Besides, BO wouldn't want a qualifed, competent (comaratively) person for his VP, anyway. He only picked Biden as an insurance policy to eliminate the *smart* people who'd want to boot him out of office.
I'd say that it's more likely for Bloomberg and/or Trump to figure out a way into the race. Mostly just because of their enormous egoes, and they have the money to stroke them.
The fat boy was just applauded for lowering flags to half staff in NJ in memory of some singer who killed herself with illegal drugs. The money she spent goes to increase the wealth of Mexican cartels.
Yep...she’s a hero.
Meantime US veterans get spit upon by liberal politicians and the media.
You want THIS guy at the top of a ticket???
Man, this guy needs to check his meds.
Weed??? This guy is on LSD or some other crazy hallucinagen!!!
This scenario is as realistic as the current Clown Show, known by some as a “Republican Primary”.
Lemmings on Parade!
I’ve been aware of Americans Elect for some time now. I can easily see Bloomberg running on that ticket. I, too, question if Hunstman would join him. But the real question is who Bloomberg would hurt most? Would the (R) previously after his name hurt the GOP ticket or would his mostly liberal ideology hurt Obama?
The weed is probably not that good.
“...Christie and Rubio, the Republicans;...”
IMO, I don’t think Christie would ‘play’ well outside the Tri-state area. Rubio has his issues with citizenship, ie were his parents given citizen ship in the US before he was born. Many articles on past FR posts.
No, but Ann Coulter sure does. Milt is only her second choice.
I think Christie is very pro veteran. Unless you know something I don't.
The article is thought provoking. I like the thought of “fat boy” whooping that skinny Kenyan’s butt at a debate. I like Rubio...don't know if the NBC would be a sticking point. Rubio in the VP slot would be excellent.
Actually I day dream about Paul Ryan/Bobby Jindal. It's not any crazier than Christie/Rubio. I would take either set over what we have to choose from now. I won't be surprised if there is a wild and woolly nomination process. We are living in very, very weird times.
“You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet Compared to What’s Coming”
I’ve been trying to warn freepers about this for over a year.
This is going to be the most vile, negative, and possibly VIOLENT election in America’s History.
These aren’t Democrats we are dealing with, anymore, but RADICAL SOCIALISTS, and Corruptocrats, who will try to hold on to power by any means, ANY MEANS, legal or illegal.
The time for sitting on your ass behind a keyboard, complaining, is over. WE have to be in the streets this time, regardless of who ends up being the candidate.
The future of our children and grandchildren literally rest on this one election. After 2006, and 2008, can you have ANY more doubt about this?