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Will Millennials Vote for Barack Obama Again in November 2012?
PolicyMic ^ | March 16, 2012 | Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais

Posted on 03/18/2012 12:15:48 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Millennials (born 1982-2003) were crucial to Barack Obama’s 2008 election. Other than the state of the economy, the most pivotal factor in determining the outcome of the 2012 general election is likely to be whether or not America’s youngest voters repeat their 2008 electoral performance in 2012.

In November 2008, Millennials comprised about 17% of the electorate and voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama over John McCain (66% to 32%). With older generations dividing their votes almost evenly between the two candidates, Millennials accounted for about 80% of Obama’s national popular vote margin over McCain, turning what would have been a narrow win into a decisive seven-point victory.

So far, the data suggests Millennials are poised to support Barack Obama at the same level this year that they did four years ago. In a recent Pew survey, Millennials preferred Obama over Mitt Romney, the likely Republican nominee, by a 62% to 36% margin. But this year, Millennials make up 24% of those eligible to vote. Coupled with its partisan unity in comparison with older voters, the sheer size of the Millennial generation, America’s largest ever, could make its impact even more decisive in 2012 than in 2008.

Whether Millennials have that kind of impact depends on what the two parties do to attract their votes. For Republicans, the best approach is to connect with Millennials before they are solidly in the Democratic camp for the next three or four decades. A few Millennial Republicans such as John McCain’s daughter, Meghan, and Kristen Soltis, a GOP pollster, have argued that their party should moderate its stance on social issues and immigration in order to have greater appeal to their highly tolerant and diverse generation. So far, however, the GOP presidential field has attracted relatively little Millennial support; through Super Tuesday, the Republican frontrunners (Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul) combined had received less than half the Millennial votes that Barack Obama did in 2008. Perhaps the lack of Millennial interest in the GOP candidates explains why Republicans in at least half of the states are more focused on limiting Millennial voting turnout than in actively courting the generation’s support.

For Democrats, the concern is not so much the partisanship of Millennials, but their engagement. One way to reinforce Millennials’ Democratic leanings is to remind them of their stake in the election by emphasizing the Millennial-friendly policies the Obama administration has pursued. Help with the cost of attending college, funding more national service opportunities, and permitting young people to remain on their parent’s health insurance until age 26 are all initiatives the Obama team could raise with Millennials. Already that campaign is gearing up online and offline organizational efforts to bring Millennials to the polls in November that exceed the technological sophistication of its very successful efforts in 2008.

If Millennials vote in numbers proportionate to their presence among eligible voters, their continued support of the president should allow him to overcome any attrition he suffers among older voters. But if large numbers of Millennials do not vote, the president’s reelection chances will be sharply reduced. Whichever alternative occurs will very likely determine whether Barack Obama or his eventual Republican opponent is inaugurated as president on January 20, 2013.

******

Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais are co-authors of the newly published Millennial Momentum: How a New Generation is Remaking America and Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics, named by the New York Times as one of their ten favorite books of 2008.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: demographics; millennials; obama; romney

1 posted on 03/18/2012 12:15:55 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

People born in 2003 voted for Obama. I guess he really did get the youth vote.


2 posted on 03/18/2012 12:18:58 AM PDT by NavVet ("You Lie!")
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To: NavVet
Just because someone was sentenced to Kindergarten, doesn't mean you should take away their suffrage!!
3 posted on 03/18/2012 12:21:13 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

When I see people with Obama 2012 bumper stickers I just can’t wrap my brain around it.


4 posted on 03/18/2012 12:22:29 AM PDT by douginthearmy (Obamagebra: 1 job + 1 hope + 1 change = 0 jobs + 0 hope)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Help with the cost of attending college, funding more national service opportunities, and permitting young people to remain on their parent’s health insurance until age 26 are all initiatives the Obama team could raise with Millennials.

As long as they're getting everything handed to them for free why wouldn't they vote for him?

5 posted on 03/18/2012 12:23:32 AM PDT by rockrr (Everything is different now...)
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To: douginthearmy

Haven’t seen one so far here in Southern Mississippi.


6 posted on 03/18/2012 12:23:45 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: NavVet

It will be interesting to me to see how many young voters actually turn out.

It was hip and cool and historical last time. This time may be the usual...”I’m too busy” attitude.

We shall see I guess.


7 posted on 03/18/2012 12:31:52 AM PDT by berdie
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

well if the people born in 2003 vote for him it is all over!!!


8 posted on 03/18/2012 12:32:52 AM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: NavVet
"People born in 2003 voted for Obama. I guess he really did get the youth vote."


9 posted on 03/18/2012 12:38:44 AM PDT by clearcarbon
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To: douginthearmy

Saw a couple of them the other day. At an Air Force Base! I can’t understand it either.


10 posted on 03/18/2012 1:19:25 AM PDT by beaversmom
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To: rockrr

“As long as they’re getting everything handed to them for free why wouldn’t they vote for him?”

Because they have no future..


11 posted on 03/18/2012 1:31:23 AM PDT by desertfreedom765
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Time to return the voting age to 21.


12 posted on 03/18/2012 1:32:12 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj
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To: rockrr

“As long as they’re getting everything handed to them for free why wouldn’t they vote for him?”

It sucks to be invited out to dinner and then be handed the check.


13 posted on 03/18/2012 1:54:08 AM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (The democratic party is the greatest cargo cult in history.)
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To: douginthearmy
Obama

Check out Obama's Pie

Click to watch Obama -- ''How you like me now'' or here to download mp4.
Click to hear Obama -- ''Love me''
Click to hear ''Do for me''
Click to hear ''Cousin Pookie''
Click to hear ''Cracker''
Click to hear ''Caught out there with the nightstick''
Click to hear Obama -- ''In a ditch''
Click to hear Waters -- ''The enemy is''
Click to hear Waters -- ''Taking over'' and Obama -- ''Made enough money''
Click to hear Obama -- ''We want a slice of the pie''
Click to hear Pelosi -- ''Most Ethical''
Click to hear Pelosi -- ''Pass the bill so you can find out what is in it''
Click to hear John Conyers -- ''Read the bill''
Click to hear Al Sharpton -- ''But resist we much''
Click to hear Rangel -- ''I'm here''
Click to hear Warren -- ''Taxation''

14 posted on 03/18/2012 2:58:15 AM PDT by BobP (The piss-stream media - Never to be watched again in my house)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Will Millennials Vote for Barack Obama Again in November 2012?

Oh, I figure he will probably win a majority of those that vote, but that isn't the whole story. In 2008 he was a "rock star". It the cool, hip fad to support him, and this age group was his strongest supporters. Now in 2012, he isn't the new thing anymore, in fact he's now the establishment. So there will be nowhere near the level of support their was in 2008, there is very little enthusiasm and many will just stay home and play video games on election day.

15 posted on 03/18/2012 3:53:49 AM PDT by apillar
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Will Millennials Vote for Barack Obama Again in November 2012?

Oh, I figure he will probably win a majority of those that vote, but that isn't the whole story. In 2008 he was a "rock star". It the cool, hip fad to support him, and this age group was his strongest supporters. Now in 2012, he isn't the new thing anymore, in fact he's now the establishment. So there will be nowhere near the level of support their was in 2008, there is very little enthusiasm and many will just stay home and play video games on election day.

16 posted on 03/18/2012 3:53:55 AM PDT by apillar
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To: douginthearmy

I speed up to see what kind of idiot it is behind the wheel. And it always fits my preconceived notion. Then I try to stay far away from that driver.


17 posted on 03/18/2012 6:05:24 AM PDT by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: apillar

Attended my local Republican Party Convention last week. I was stunned at the number of twenty-somethings in attendance. Spoke with a few young men there. Some were Ron Paul supporters but said they would vote for whoever was running against B. Hussein obama. I was encouraged...unless they were pulling a Trojan Horse kind of thing.

Maybe that’s Ron Paul’s strategy; have young voters infiltrate the republican party. Now we’re talking Van Jones theology.


18 posted on 03/18/2012 6:08:15 AM PDT by Josa
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Will Millennials Vote for Barack Obama Again in November 2012?’

Yes. Of course. Why is this in doubt?

Being young is about experiencing the power of burgeoning emotions, often at the expense of rational thought.

“Hope and change” is EXACTLY what they want to hear. It’s what they “feel”. It makes no difference whether such platitudes are empty promises that have no meaning. It FEELS GOOD to embrace such things.

What’s the famous quote from Winston Churchill regarding this?


19 posted on 03/18/2012 8:44:16 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; justiceseeker93; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; ...

I don’t think that the exit polls were accurate, as they showed Obama winning by 57% to 41%, twice what he actually won by. These polls also claim that Obama got 78% of the Jewish vote, which is absurd.

I’d guess that the youth vote gave Obama about 60% and the Jewish vote about 65%. I think that Republicans can make gains in both these groups. The young people remembered the Bush Administration, which had many failures. Now they’ll remember the Obama Administration with its high unemployment, high cost of living, and universe-sized deficits.


20 posted on 03/18/2012 12:37:09 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (A chameleon belongs in a pet store, not the White House)
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To: Clintonfatigued

President Bush may have had many failures, but let me ask you this: Would you rather have the economy of 2005 or today’s?


21 posted on 03/18/2012 12:46:32 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Better yet, go with Robert A. Heinlien's idea in Starship Troopers that only military veterans may vote. Or go back to property holders only.
22 posted on 03/18/2012 12:48:49 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obviously I prefer the economy of 2005. I was just pointing out that the youth voters only remembered President Bush’s administration when they voted in 2008 and now Obama has a reocrd for them to evanuate.


23 posted on 03/18/2012 12:52:05 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (A chameleon belongs in a pet store, not the White House)
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To: Clintonfatigued

How badly does the economy effect you when you’re living in Mom’s basement, eating at her table, deferring your student loans and still getting food stamps? As for his record, that 17 minute gushing documentary, Jon Stewart and drooling press coverage will be what many of them use to judge his accomplishments.


24 posted on 03/18/2012 12:57:13 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t think that most young people envisioned their post-college futures as working a minimum wage job and living with their parents while waiting for their lives to begin.


25 posted on 03/18/2012 2:32:38 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (A chameleon belongs in a pet store, not the White House)
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To: Clintonfatigued
I used to be a recruiter. They all want to start at vice president, with a six-figure salary, Cadillac benefit plan, 3 weeks vacation and a private office, even with mediocre grades and a degree in ethnic or womyn’s studies, or some such.
26 posted on 03/18/2012 2:40:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Ich habe keinen Konig aber Gott)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m not sure either isn’t a bad idea. Voting should be a privilege.


27 posted on 03/18/2012 6:05:07 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj
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