Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Romney's got the numbers but is a GOP surprise coming? (Thinks Jeb or Mitch will be 2012's Palin)
KSAZ-TV ^ | March 20, 2012 | Douglas Schoen, Democratic pollster

Posted on 03/20/2012 6:21:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

With Mitt Romney increasing his lead over Rick Santorum with a victory in Puerto Rico over the weekend, it is likely, that at the very least, Romney will hold his own or increase his lead over Santorum in Tuesday’s Illinois primary.

Mitt Romney now holds a lead of more than 2-1 over Rick Santorum (521-253) -- positioning him as the clear and indeed most likely Republican nominee for president.

But while Romney has won 55% of the delegates thus far – and indeed, it seems clear that neither Santorum on his own or Gingrich will be able to individually stop the former Governor – Romney’s share of the total popular vote cast is well below 45 percent.

Meanwhile, a Washington Post analysis out this morning shows that neither Romney nor Santorum has inspired much commitment from Republican primary voters and neither candidate has cut into the others base of support.

Going forward, it can be expected that the White House will continue to do what it has done recently-- escalate their attacks on all the Republicans and on the Republican Party – which now garners a 10% lower rating than the Democrats in recent polling.

Notwithstanding the Republicans demonstrable weakness, however, the former Massachusetts governor is within striking distance of the president -- with President Obama holding a narrow 4% or less lead in the horse race for President.

Thus, we can expect Mitt Romney and his fellow Republican candidates -- when they get tired of attacking one another – to attack an increasingly unpopular President Obama, whose vulnerability in the polls became clearer and clearer last week.

Indeed, with two-thirds of the electorate saying that the country is headed in the wrong direction, the president's overall job approval is once again below 50%, and he is garnering decidedly negative ratings for his handling of the issue of ever-increasing gas prices.

This suggests that an election that has already been the most negative in American history will become more negative, and arguably less connected to the issues that matter.

To be sure, various GOP leaders have spoken at length about why they hope to resolve their nomination well before their convention opens in Tampa on August 27th to avoid further division and disarray.

And indeed, given the increasingly negative rating for both Mr. Romney and the Party, one can understand why conventional wisdom would suggest that a long drawn out process would be fatal for the Republican party, and Mr. Romney – should he ultimately receive the nomination.

Still, as former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour said this week, it would not be necessarily bad for the party to be deadlocked going into the Republican Convention.

And while the four leading candidates will almost certainly do everything they can do to resolve things, whether it be through deals, alliances, or horse-trading, there is one other possibility.

And that possibility is that a new candidate can enter the race.

Let us recall how the surprise selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate four years ago galvanized a party that had been given up for dead and a campaign that had been given up for lost before the Convention.

However, history suggests that a new candidate-- whether it be Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mitch Daniels -- could well galvanize a party that has become increasingly dispirited and divided.

To be sure, with Governor Romney doing better and better in delegate counts, it is still unlikely that this scenario will be reached, but it is one to take seriously.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: bigdigs4all; bush; deathpanels4ever; mitchdaniels; palin; romney; romneycare4ever
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-64 next last
Comments?
1 posted on 03/20/2012 6:21:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I love Newt. This makes me want to throw up in my mouth..


2 posted on 03/20/2012 6:24:52 PM PDT by goseminoles
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
However, history suggests that a new candidate-- whether it be Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mitch Daniels -- could well galvanize a party that has become increasingly dispirited and divided.

Wow. The GOP is on a suicide run!! RINO-RINO

3 posted on 03/20/2012 6:26:41 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I dont care who Bush is. We do not have monarchy’s in this country and they are certainly trying to set one up. Just on principle I say NO.


4 posted on 03/20/2012 6:29:31 PM PDT by Walkingfeather
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I hate Mittens so bad. He is on tv talking right now. I can see right through this twerp.

He is so painfully empty. Words, no ideas, no difference from Obama, no major themes mentioned.

Christie is great for NJ- STAY THERE.

Jeb- NO THANKS

Mitch? Who?!


5 posted on 03/20/2012 6:29:53 PM PDT by Individual Rights in NJ (Infidel Inside)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Romney can pick whoever he wants for his running mate, and it’s not going to make any difference (the same is true if Santorum becomes the candidate - his running mate will be of no importance). Having an unpopular Presidential candidate cannot be compensated for by picking a more attractive VP. We all voted for VP the last time around, and we’re not going to do it again.

I hope they have a deadlocked convention and come up with somebody totally different. I still think Gingrich would be the best candidate - he’s the only one who offers any significant difference from Obama and the Dem program, and he’s the only one who really gets Obama’s goat - but I think the GOP E has basically crushed him. However, one never knows...he has come back from the dead before.


6 posted on 03/20/2012 6:31:09 PM PDT by livius
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Your problem is Jeb's wife is a Mexican. Chris is a blimp ready for a full coronary blowout. And Mitch is a midget whose wife doesn't want him to run.

Of the three Mitch is probably the most knowledgeable one of the three when it comes to federal government but again, I don't think his wife wants to move to the DC area again. Just no way.

The blimp people had their chance with Taft. The Mexicans are in line behind the Italians and Poles in the long term race for the top. They have to learn their place (like the Italians and Poles eh).

7 posted on 03/20/2012 6:31:38 PM PDT by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Individual Rights in NJ
I hate Mittens so bad. He is on tv talking right now. I can see right through this twerp. He is so painfully empty. Words, no ideas, no difference from Obama, no major themes mentioned. Christie is great for NJ- STAY THERE. Jeb- NO THANKS Mitch? Who?!

Looks like I am staying home on election day.

No, I will go and vote the down ticket.
8 posted on 03/20/2012 6:33:16 PM PDT by Misplaced Texan (July 4, 2009 - the first day of the 2nd Revolution!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Individual Rights in NJ
Mitch is busy giving Indiana income tax payers a REFUND from the state's surplus!

Mitch who?

Seriously, nobody is doing that these days but Indiana under Mitch Daniels.

9 posted on 03/20/2012 6:33:43 PM PDT by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I do not care who Romney picks as VP, I will not vote for him.
He is no different than BHO.


10 posted on 03/20/2012 6:34:04 PM PDT by svcw (CLEAN WATER & Education http://www.longlostsis.com/PI/MayanHelp2012.html)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Never know when a tragedy might occur. He could open his vault tomorrow and be crushed by an avalanche of Chinese money. It ain’t done til it’s over


11 posted on 03/20/2012 6:35:12 PM PDT by Figment
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Right, because nominating a liberal and tacking on a conservative worked so well against Barack Obama in 2008.

Open your damn eyes, you establishment nitwits! Trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

You know, peaceful secession sounds really nice right about now.


12 posted on 03/20/2012 6:35:57 PM PDT by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
(Thinks Jeb or Mitch will be 2012's Palin)

Puh Leeease!

2012's Palin will be Palin.

NOTICE to GOP establishment- Don't send us your retreads

13 posted on 03/20/2012 6:37:02 PM PDT by mcmuffin ("Wanting your country back is not the same thing as working to take it back.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Which is better to use in posts, third party or 3rd party?


14 posted on 03/20/2012 6:37:25 PM PDT by Proud2BeRight
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yeah I got a comment. Mitt RomneyCare inspires NOTHING. No one. Listen to those who keep trying to cram this guy down our throats. Do they say he’s the best man for the job? NO. Do they point to some kind of Massachusetts Miracle Economic Boom to show he’s really the kind of leader we need? NO. Their selling point of him is - he can’t be portrayed as “crazy” (meaning, True Conservative) by the MSM. That’s it - that’s the justification of their support for this guy. He made $$ on the Olympics because he got funding form the government; RomneyCare only managed to survive because of Federal $$ infused into Massachusetts. Mitt RomneyCare is worse than Dole or McCain in that at least those guys won primaries outright.

Mitt RomneyCare’s wins in the largest primaries up to now have been marked by two indisputable facts: he’s had to come from behind in Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Michigan (sometimes from FAR behind); and he’s only managed to do so by scorching the earth with a barrage of negative ads to destroy his opponents. His ads are NOT about promoting his accomplishments (how does a Flip Flopper sell himself as competent??)That destruction is obliterating turnout. Mitt RomenyCare will be the GOP nominee virtually no Conservative voters want. I won’t vote for him.


15 posted on 03/20/2012 6:41:19 PM PDT by antonico
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goseminoles
I love Newt. This makes me want to throw up in my mouth..

Isn't this pathetic. We will probably wind up with Romnesty, a devout, dyed in the wool democrat at best. I can't stand him or anything he stands for: homosexuality, abortion, high taxes, mandatory health care, etc.

What the hell has happened?

I wouldn't be surprised if, when Romnesty takes the GOP to the cleaners, that the idiot in our White House doesn't give him a cabinet position. I smell a rat, a Romney rat . . . something just plain stinks to think that we are going to put a democrat up against a democrat and all of us are going to go panting to the ballot box to vote for Mittens. Something just ain't right.

16 posted on 03/20/2012 6:42:08 PM PDT by laweeks
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Misplaced Texan

That is my plan.


17 posted on 03/20/2012 6:42:58 PM PDT by Individual Rights in NJ (Infidel Inside)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

None mentioned will do a damn thing to excite anyone. I am sure the establishment guys really don’t care what we think anyway.

Fat boy, short boy, boosh boy

Whoever.


18 posted on 03/20/2012 6:48:49 PM PDT by dforest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

None mentioned will do a damn thing to excite anyone. I am sure the establishment guys really don’t care what we think anyway.

Fat boy, short boy, boosh boy

Whoever.


19 posted on 03/20/2012 6:48:57 PM PDT by dforest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah

LOL OH!

I thought they meant Mitch McConnell , my bad.


20 posted on 03/20/2012 6:51:20 PM PDT by Individual Rights in NJ (Infidel Inside)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

It is political malpractice to claim that it was Palin’s “newness” that had her successfully dragging McCain into the lead—until he took Schmidt’s dreadful advice and suspended his campaign, that is!

She’s not so new now, yet she still is the one exitement-generating candidate the GOP has.

Oh, well.


21 posted on 03/20/2012 6:53:36 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yeah! Daniels! Elmer Fudd will galvanize the party.


22 posted on 03/20/2012 6:53:50 PM PDT by achilles2000 ("I'll agree to save the whales as long as we can deport the liberals")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Stay out da Bushes. MilqueToast Daniels would get beaten like a drum.


23 posted on 03/20/2012 6:53:59 PM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bailout)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I am sick and tired of the same perople running and running. It has to stop somewhere.

No Jeb Bush. After Terri Schiavo I am surprised he has the guts to run for anything. I will not vote for Jeb. I don’t want Daniels either.


24 posted on 03/20/2012 6:54:51 PM PDT by mardi59
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: muawiyah

Newsies have started pushing Condi Rice for the VP slot.

[That would be as bad as Jeb. She was a disaster as SoS, especially with Israel.]


25 posted on 03/20/2012 6:55:48 PM PDT by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Individual Rights in NJ

Oh, my goodness. That’s HORRIBLE!!!


26 posted on 03/20/2012 6:55:53 PM PDT by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: laweeks

Our electorate is surrounded by idiots.


27 posted on 03/20/2012 6:56:11 PM PDT by goseminoles
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s not going to happen. A brokered/contested convention is not going to produce a candidate that has not gone through the primary process. Our candidate is going to be either Romney, Santorum or Newt. I am supporting Newt, largely because I really just don’t like Mitt or Rick at all. Newt is the best available option in my view, and the only one that can challenge the establishment media and change the dynamics of the race. Unfortunately, unless Gingrich can really start connecting with GOP primary voters big time in the next couple of weeks, we are going to get Romney the chameleon.


28 posted on 03/20/2012 6:56:30 PM PDT by Longbow1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I wouldn’t vote for Romney if he put me on the ticket


29 posted on 03/20/2012 6:57:19 PM PDT by Breto (The Establishment party is killing our country)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Jeb Bush are you kidding - no way. We have had enough of that family.


30 posted on 03/20/2012 6:58:30 PM PDT by Pilated
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Jeb Bush are you kidding - no way. We have had enough of that family.


31 posted on 03/20/2012 6:59:56 PM PDT by Pilated
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TomGuy
Newsies do not have the best interests of the Republicans or the United States at heart.

Don't let them pick our candidates.

32 posted on 03/20/2012 7:00:18 PM PDT by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
They really want us to go third party. We don't want Daniels or bush or whoever else THEY thinks deserves it after our guys did all the hard work. There are a lot of us out here who won't vote for Romney. I wish Newt and Rick would get together. Brains n Bulldog and Heart n Soul. That meets everyone’s needs . Romney can have the dept of Labor. How's that for Romney fans.
33 posted on 03/20/2012 7:06:11 PM PDT by Linda Frances (Only God can change a heart, but we can pray for hearts to be changed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

1968, 1976, 1980

Ronald Reagan isn’t “new” anymore. The bloom is off the rose. Yeah, I’ve heard that stuff before.

Palin isn’t “new”. I disagree. In 2008, she was a VP pick who was backstabbed by Schmidt and Wallace. Now she is free to chart her own course (whatever it might be) and control her own destiny.

If this is going down the way I think it will (and considering the LOW turnout...Illinois is a flop) then the GOP, from leadership to rank-and-file, will have to have a SERIOUS “COME TO JESUS” moment.


34 posted on 03/20/2012 7:08:17 PM PDT by ak267
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I hope Mutt does pick someone like Christie or Bush, so I can vote against them both.


35 posted on 03/20/2012 7:09:13 PM PDT by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: laweeks; goseminoles

This campaign is really making me hate Romney’s wife too. I see her coming up the stage to talk and I cringe. I know that the wife should not matter and if Romney was a decent candidate than I would STFU, but since he stinks, she does too. I despise her so much.


36 posted on 03/20/2012 7:17:41 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Breto

I wouldn’t vote for Romney if he put me on the ticket

Oh God thank you for that post. I really needed a good laugh and you accomplished that. Your post is incredible. I loved it. Knowing deep down that Romney is our nominee was making me mighty depressed, but your post gave me such a great chuckle. Man that was awesome!!! Thanks!!!


37 posted on 03/20/2012 7:20:51 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: svcw
I do not care who Romney picks as VP, I will not vote for him. He is no different than BHO.

THANK YOU !!!!!!!! s/ Barack

38 posted on 03/20/2012 7:23:48 PM PDT by terycarl (lurking, but well informed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Even if Mittens could get Mother Teresa—were she still alive—as VP, I doubt that would help him.


39 posted on 03/20/2012 7:24:39 PM PDT by pankot
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TomGuy

If Romney wins, he will probably pick a Southerner, since he has little support in the South outside of Florida—someone like Lindsey Graham.


40 posted on 03/20/2012 7:24:58 PM PDT by Fiji Hill (Io Triumphe!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

No more bush boys, ever.


41 posted on 03/20/2012 7:25:16 PM PDT by Caipirabob (I say we take off and Newt the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

There are no surprises in the GOP. Mitt was picked four years ago and anyone who thought it would come out differently is naive or a useful idiot.


42 posted on 03/20/2012 7:26:24 PM PDT by DManA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Yeah, there a lot of odumbo lovers in this thread. A no vote for the GOP (whomever that is) is a vote for odumbo. Plain and simple. Get used to it!

How anyone could despise Romney so much that they would sacrifice their vote and GIVE it to the left is beyond me,

43 posted on 03/20/2012 7:27:26 PM PDT by BornToBeAmerican (Kindness will conquer evil)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Fiji Hill

I will bet you a Romney $10,000 that the VP will be a woman/and/or a minority.


44 posted on 03/20/2012 7:28:50 PM PDT by DManA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: VRWC For Truth
Stay out da Bushes. MilqueToast Daniels would get beaten like a drum

wrong kemosabe...of all things Daniels is, Milquetoast isn't one of them....ask the crooked union bosses!!!!!!

45 posted on 03/20/2012 7:31:41 PM PDT by terycarl (lurking, but well informed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: DManA
I will bet you a Romney $10,000 that the VP will be a woman/and/or a minority.

Perhaps Olympia Snowe or Michael Steele.

46 posted on 03/20/2012 7:32:11 PM PDT by Fiji Hill (Io Triumphe!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: Breto
I wouldn’t vote for Romney if he put me on the ticket

in that case, I wouldn't vote for him either, we're looking for real Republican MEN

47 posted on 03/20/2012 7:35:06 PM PDT by terycarl (lurking, but well informed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

“However, history suggests that a new candidate— whether it be Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mitch Daniels — could well galvanize a party that has become increasingly dispirited and divided. “

Schoen is a moron.

Only a moron would suggest that a super-RINO like Romney would be replaced with super-RINOs like Bush, Christie, or Danels and that would energize the base.

If they try to replace Romney with someone just like him it will REALLY infuriate the base.


48 posted on 03/20/2012 7:36:17 PM PDT by webstersII
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Just rubbish to fill the space. Not meant to be taken seriously. Romney will be the nominee.
49 posted on 03/20/2012 7:40:54 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: svcw
He is no different than BHO.

That is just baby talk.

I'm a Newt supporter but will be a Daffy Duck voter in November.

50 posted on 03/20/2012 7:44:08 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-64 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson