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Romney's got the numbers but is a GOP surprise coming? (Thinks Jeb or Mitch will be 2012's Palin)
KSAZ-TV ^ | March 20, 2012 | Douglas Schoen, Democratic pollster

Posted on 03/20/2012 6:21:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

With Mitt Romney increasing his lead over Rick Santorum with a victory in Puerto Rico over the weekend, it is likely, that at the very least, Romney will hold his own or increase his lead over Santorum in Tuesday’s Illinois primary.

Mitt Romney now holds a lead of more than 2-1 over Rick Santorum (521-253) -- positioning him as the clear and indeed most likely Republican nominee for president.

But while Romney has won 55% of the delegates thus far – and indeed, it seems clear that neither Santorum on his own or Gingrich will be able to individually stop the former Governor – Romney’s share of the total popular vote cast is well below 45 percent.

Meanwhile, a Washington Post analysis out this morning shows that neither Romney nor Santorum has inspired much commitment from Republican primary voters and neither candidate has cut into the others base of support.

Going forward, it can be expected that the White House will continue to do what it has done recently-- escalate their attacks on all the Republicans and on the Republican Party – which now garners a 10% lower rating than the Democrats in recent polling.

Notwithstanding the Republicans demonstrable weakness, however, the former Massachusetts governor is within striking distance of the president -- with President Obama holding a narrow 4% or less lead in the horse race for President.

Thus, we can expect Mitt Romney and his fellow Republican candidates -- when they get tired of attacking one another – to attack an increasingly unpopular President Obama, whose vulnerability in the polls became clearer and clearer last week.

Indeed, with two-thirds of the electorate saying that the country is headed in the wrong direction, the president's overall job approval is once again below 50%, and he is garnering decidedly negative ratings for his handling of the issue of ever-increasing gas prices.

This suggests that an election that has already been the most negative in American history will become more negative, and arguably less connected to the issues that matter.

To be sure, various GOP leaders have spoken at length about why they hope to resolve their nomination well before their convention opens in Tampa on August 27th to avoid further division and disarray.

And indeed, given the increasingly negative rating for both Mr. Romney and the Party, one can understand why conventional wisdom would suggest that a long drawn out process would be fatal for the Republican party, and Mr. Romney – should he ultimately receive the nomination.

Still, as former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour said this week, it would not be necessarily bad for the party to be deadlocked going into the Republican Convention.

And while the four leading candidates will almost certainly do everything they can do to resolve things, whether it be through deals, alliances, or horse-trading, there is one other possibility.

And that possibility is that a new candidate can enter the race.

Let us recall how the surprise selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate four years ago galvanized a party that had been given up for dead and a campaign that had been given up for lost before the Convention.

However, history suggests that a new candidate-- whether it be Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mitch Daniels -- could well galvanize a party that has become increasingly dispirited and divided.

To be sure, with Governor Romney doing better and better in delegate counts, it is still unlikely that this scenario will be reached, but it is one to take seriously.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: bigdigs4all; bush; deathpanels4ever; mitchdaniels; palin; romney; romneycare4ever
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No more bush boys, ever.


41 posted on 03/20/2012 7:25:16 PM PDT by Caipirabob (I say we take off and Newt the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There are no surprises in the GOP. Mitt was picked four years ago and anyone who thought it would come out differently is naive or a useful idiot.


42 posted on 03/20/2012 7:26:24 PM PDT by DManA
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Yeah, there a lot of odumbo lovers in this thread. A no vote for the GOP (whomever that is) is a vote for odumbo. Plain and simple. Get used to it!

How anyone could despise Romney so much that they would sacrifice their vote and GIVE it to the left is beyond me,

43 posted on 03/20/2012 7:27:26 PM PDT by BornToBeAmerican (Kindness will conquer evil)
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To: Fiji Hill

I will bet you a Romney $10,000 that the VP will be a woman/and/or a minority.


44 posted on 03/20/2012 7:28:50 PM PDT by DManA
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To: VRWC For Truth
Stay out da Bushes. MilqueToast Daniels would get beaten like a drum

wrong kemosabe...of all things Daniels is, Milquetoast isn't one of them....ask the crooked union bosses!!!!!!

45 posted on 03/20/2012 7:31:41 PM PDT by terycarl (lurking, but well informed)
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To: DManA
I will bet you a Romney $10,000 that the VP will be a woman/and/or a minority.

Perhaps Olympia Snowe or Michael Steele.

46 posted on 03/20/2012 7:32:11 PM PDT by Fiji Hill (Io Triumphe!)
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To: Breto
I wouldn’t vote for Romney if he put me on the ticket

in that case, I wouldn't vote for him either, we're looking for real Republican MEN

47 posted on 03/20/2012 7:35:06 PM PDT by terycarl (lurking, but well informed)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“However, history suggests that a new candidate— whether it be Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mitch Daniels — could well galvanize a party that has become increasingly dispirited and divided. “

Schoen is a moron.

Only a moron would suggest that a super-RINO like Romney would be replaced with super-RINOs like Bush, Christie, or Danels and that would energize the base.

If they try to replace Romney with someone just like him it will REALLY infuriate the base.


48 posted on 03/20/2012 7:36:17 PM PDT by webstersII
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Just rubbish to fill the space. Not meant to be taken seriously. Romney will be the nominee.
49 posted on 03/20/2012 7:40:54 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: svcw
He is no different than BHO.

That is just baby talk.

I'm a Newt supporter but will be a Daffy Duck voter in November.

50 posted on 03/20/2012 7:44:08 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: hinckley buzzard
but will be a Daffy Duck voter in November...

I'm considering Dwight Eisenhower. He was a good President.

51 posted on 03/20/2012 7:49:00 PM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Hey Republicrats:

since you are hell bent on self destruction anyway, why not:

Romney/Bush 2012

That would be analogous to taking a bottle of sleeping pills, and THEN shooting yourself in the head just to be sure.

Idiots.


52 posted on 03/20/2012 7:50:55 PM PDT by Nik Naym (It's not my fault... I have compulsive smartass disorder.)
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To: webstersII
Only a moron would suggest that a super-RINO like Romney would be replaced with super-RINOs like Bush, Christie, or Danels and that would energize the base.

Moron...that would describe someone who reffered to Mitch Daniels as a RINO...The FIRST act he did as governor was eliminate the state employees union (I was a state employee at the time and applauded his action) during his years in power here, he made Indiana a "right to work" state which means that you cannot be forced to join a union and pay union dues to work in Indiana (COME ON IN, THE WORK CLIMATE IS GREAT HERE !!!)....he is now returning tax monies to ALL Indiana taxpayers because we have a surplus....How's your state doing?????

53 posted on 03/20/2012 7:51:56 PM PDT by terycarl (lurking, but well informed)
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To: Fiji Hill
If Romney wins, he will probably pick a Southerner, since he has little support in the South outside of Florida—someone like Lindsey Graham.

Oh, no! What a horrible thought! The establishment GOP really is the stupid party.

54 posted on 03/20/2012 7:54:35 PM PDT by madison10
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I, for one, think it's high time we put another Bush in the White House and this here Jeb seems like he'll fit the bill just fine.

I sure hope those Bushes are rapidly multiplying so as to ensure future generations of the kind of polite, gentle and somewhat non-threatening patrician leadership we have come to expect.

I really do miss the vaguely confused and befuddled Bushes that led our country in past years. I do get a warm, fuzzy feeling thinking about them and I am fondly reminded of Yale, tennis matches, sweaters, baseball games (tossing out that first pitch), and argyle socks.

What I would really like however, in addition to another Bush in the White House, is a friendly invasion/occupation of our neighbor to the north - Canada.

Now hear me out. I really have nothing against those hockey-crazed, beer-chugging Canucks. They are pretty much nice and harmless people. However, their silly country does tend to get in the way when I need to drive on up to Alaska.

Used to be that you could just go ahead and drive through Canada to get to Alaska and on the rest stops on the Al-Can, you could just use American money to fill up the gas tank and get a cup of strong coffee.

However, they are now asking you to not only present some sort of "passport" at the border, but they require you to change your American dollars into those funny looking Canadian dollars (with queens and kings) that you would rather keep as souvenirs rather than spend.

To me, this whole "Canada as a separate country" thing has really run its course. It's time to just convert those provinces into states and bring them on into the United States once and for all.

Absorbing Canada into the United States would definitely be a convenience for me. And think of the money we could save by closing down those unnecessary border crossings and laying off those mounties with the funny looking hats and uniforms. And it sure would make it easier to get to Alaska and back.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not talking about going to war with Canada or anything like that. Nobody need get hurt. Just occupy the country peacefully and make the necessary administrative changes. As for those French-speaking people from Quebec, stop it already! No more French! It's just not cute anymore.

55 posted on 03/20/2012 7:56:16 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I am 52 days away from outliving Phil Hartman)
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To: SamAdams76

LOL

I really enjoyed that!

Thanks!


56 posted on 03/20/2012 8:00:24 PM PDT by Nik Naym (It's not my fault... I have compulsive smartass disorder.)
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To: madison10

Romney got it....looks like Illinois is going for Obama with the low turnout for Romney

Turnout for Tuesday’s Illinois primary in Chicago was a meager 24 percent, officials said.
It was the lowest turnout for a presidential primary in the past 70 years.


57 posted on 03/20/2012 8:02:38 PM PDT by caww
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To: Walkingfeather

Agreed. No more Bush’s. No more Harvard and Yale grads. This process needs to be opened up.


58 posted on 03/20/2012 8:09:32 PM PDT by sgtyork (The secret of happiness is freedom, and the secret of freedom, courage. Thucydides)
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To: terycarl

The lefties at The Economist and The New York Times love Daniels because he is ‘so pragmatic’ (meaning he knows how to give in to libs).

What does that tell you?


59 posted on 03/20/2012 8:10:02 PM PDT by webstersII
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To: Misplaced Texan

That`s a sentiment that`s pretty broad. I`ll be stunned if Romney wins 15 states in the general election.


60 posted on 03/20/2012 8:26:49 PM PDT by ScottinVA (A single drop of American blood for muslims is one drop too many!)
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