Skip to comments.Mitt Romney's Poll Surge Might Be Bigger Than It Looks
Posted on 05/15/2012 9:49:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest CBS News/New York Times poll shows President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a dead heat in the race for the White House.
Given that Obama has had a relatively good week and Romney something of a bad one, this poll is a real shocker. Asked for whom they would vote were the election held today, 46 percent of the nearly 600 registered voters surveyed said Romney while 43 percent said Obama. Given that the error margin is plus or minus four points, it looks like the race is all tied up.
Actually, Romney may be in better shape than the poll suggests. The same survey conducted in April showed each man with 46 percent of the vote while the polls from March and February showed the president ahead.
What is particularly interesting is this is a poll of registered voters, meaning it's a survey representing the entire universe of those who may cast ballots in the upcoming election. Thanks to things like "motor voter," there are far more Democrats in the pool of registered voters than Republicans and, unlike surveys of so-called "likely voters," many of them may not bother to vote. It is not too much of an inference, therefore, to think that Obama may be losing the countryand that's because he has failed to get a handle on the nation's economic troubles.
Unemployment is down from where it had been under Obama, to 8.1 percent, but that's not because the economy is creating jobs. It's because, as this simple analysis shows, large numbers of people have simply stopped looking for work. "In April," wrote Tyler Durden on Zerohedge.com, "the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000," which he says is the highest number ever recorded. The labor force participation rate, meaning the people who are working or looking for work, is now at 64.3 percent, a 30-year low.
With numbers like that, with Obama having wiped out 30 years of job creation under presidents of both parties, is it any surprise that 62 percent of respondents in the CBS News/New York Times poll "cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election"?
"Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration," according to an analysis of the numbers conducted by CBS.
The response of the White House and Obama's campaign to the numbers has been to attack the way the survey was conductedwhich is really their only choice since they can't dispute what the numbers say. The president's deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutler, told NBC's Chuck Todd, "We can't put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased." When pressed, Cutler called the sample "biased."
Maybe so, but that doesn't get around the fact that 67 percent of respondentsremember these are registered voters, not likely votersrated the condition of the national economy as either "fairly bad" or "very bad." And 63 percent said they thought things would stay the same or get worse.
Equally disturbing for the White House, and perhaps the reason why the Obama campaign, its political allies, and its friends in the media have suddenly unleashed the attack squad against the former governor, is that this same poll found Romney leading among independents, among men and among women, 46 percent to 44 percent for the presidentstill within the margin of error but an indication that any bounce the Democrats might have gotten over accusations the GOP was engaged in a "war on women" has dissipated.
Team Obama needs a new strategy. It doesn't take a college degree to figure out that just about the only thing left is to try and make Romney radioactive, which means a nasty and negative summer is in the offing. It will be interesting to see if the same journalists and Washington "deep thinkers" who call out the Republicans every time they say something uncomplimentary will be as hard on the Democrats as they "go nuclear" on Romney.
Yes, it does. They had .1% retail sales growth last month. That is inflation adjusted. That is with a bogus inflation number. What do you think the real retail sales figure was? - 4, or - 6. Do you think people don’t notice?
I will probably vote Tea party down ticket, but I have no illusions of them doing anything but rolling over if Romney gets in. They haven’t done much so far which is very heartbreaking.
Wasted vote in the general election.
Nobody knows his name.
Unemployment is at 8.1% higher than the 7.8% when he took office. Moreover, the real unemployment rate is about 15% (U-6) and we have millions who have dropped out of the work force, i.e., there are millions less jobs and a lower workforce participation rate. Foreclosures continue along with increased regulations that are closing businesses and industries.
Obamacare, forced down our throats, is more unpopular today than when it was passed. And we are already starting to feel parts of it now. The Catholic Church is not too pleased with Obamacare and its strictures.
2010: Establishes a requirement to provide coverage for non-dependent children up to age 26 to all existing health insurance plans starting six months after enactment.
2011: Increases the additional tax for Health Savings Account withdrawals prior to age 65 that are not used for qualified medical expenses from 10% to 20%.
2012: Reduces the benchmark payment for Medicare Advantage plans that cover 20% of all seniors.
2013: Imposes a 2.3% excise tax on all medical device manufacturers.
2014: All individuals must buy a government approved health insurance policy or face IRS tax penalties of up to $2,250 per family.
2017: States may allow businesses with more than 100 employees to buy insurance on their exchange.
2018: Imposes 40% tax on high cost health insurance plans.
Obamacare is now under review by SCOTUS. If the individual mandate or the entire law is struck down, Obama's reelection chances will suffer. And there will also be a decision on AZ's SB 1070. Obama has sued AZ, SC, and AL for enforcing federal immigration law. If he loses that court battle, he will have more electoral problems. And then there are the smoldering crises of Fast and Furious, Solyndra, Iran, and NK. All of these are "bombs" ready to go off. And an attack by AQ prior to the election would cap it all off.
Obama has hurt himself on social and racial issues. His Officer Crowley moment followed by a beer summit started his downfall in popularity. How many support his gayification of the military? Or his support of gay marriage--a loser everytime (save once) it was put on the ballot? Obama has proven thru his class warfare, radical Marxist rhetoric, and global apology tours where he bows and scrapes to be someone who is an outsider when it comes to understanding this nation, its people, and its values. His associations with Ayers, Dohrn, Rev. Wright, Van Jones, and Frank Marshall Davis are being seen in a new light given his actions while in office.
Poll after poll on the real issues of jobs, the economy, the debt, etc. show Obama trailing in every area compared to Romney. He is being seen more and more as an amateur and an incompetent. The bloom is off the rose. Hope and change can no longer cut it. Obama has a record and it ain't good.
“may even be unable to ge his own vote.”
LOL! great post!
I’m voting down ticket.
We just won in a landslide for mayor.
I gunning for the Senate next.
I think they’re referencing the WaPo story from 1965 that young Milt supposedly cut the hair off of an allegedly gay classmate or some such.
So we have one course of direction.
That $30k is more than what most people have left but they can remember when the media said that we where in a permanent recession when GWB was in office in 2004, 05, 06, 07 and they had real nice vacations and fat 401K’s.
The truth hurts, most votes for Obama where panic votes and people caught up in a cult of personality.
That $hit is over. Even the idiots know Obama ain't the answer!
So you’ll let a Marxist Muslim win a second term? A man who’d kill a baby that survived an abortion and wants Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Seriously?
They havent done much so far which is very heartbreaking.
Then get off your ass and don’t bitch and moan.
It isn’t a wasted vote. It is voting my conscience. I will never vote for Mitt Romney, I know WAAAAAY too much about him.
It is the GOP’s fault if we lose this election, not mine.
I don't think that "high school bully" story hurt Romney at all. In fact, it was such a ridiculous stretch at a smear job that it may have backfired. Meanwhile, from all accounts, Romney hit a home run at Liberty U., which should help him with social conservatives.
On the other hand, Obambi's "gay for pay" statement, a day after the NC vote and right before his Hollywood fundraiser, followed by the "First Gay President" magazine cover, went over like a lead balloon.
Yeah Yeah Yeah Yadda Yadda Yadda same ol’ same ol’.
They’ll roll over if YOU rollover.
A man whod kill a baby that survived an abortion and wants Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Seriously?
- - - -
Romney is the same. Mark my words. Nothing you can say will ever convince me to betray my conservative values and my faith and vote for Romney.
My faith means more to me than caving and voting for Romney.
Romney IS Obama - just paler and I’m not falling for the fear card or the lies that a GOP congress will hold his feet to the fire - they won’t because they haven’t so far with any other GOP POTUS.
“They havent done much so far which is very heartbreaking.”
It took DECADES to get to where we are today.
How long has the tea party been around? Two years?
It’s going to take DECADES to get out of this mess.
The Left plays the long game, our side gives up if we’re not leading at the half.
THIS TYPE OF THINKING HAS TO END.
Look at the victories that have come over the past few days. Lugar out, that gal winning in Nebraska tonight, we are making progress.
Anybody who thought 2010 would solve all our problems and we could go back to sitting on the couch was just plain wrong.
You don’t like Romney, fine don’t vote for the guy. But don’t expect to undo 100 years of cr*p in one or two or three election cycles.
Basically nothing’s been done yet, give up now an that will ensure that nothing continues to be done.
The Lefties will lie to themselves and to everyone else up until they realize that only mass murder will solve their problems, this has happened many times before. You can’t rely on the LEFT to fix a flat tire.
We’ve got to keep fighting, no matter what.
I think you Cwazzah,
It’s best to have a plan than pitch a hissy fit.
I think it holds water too.
You think Romney wants Iran to have weapons of mass destruction? Have a link for that?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.