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Romney’s Electoral College prospects bright — still
The Washington Post's Right Turn ^ | May 28, 2012 | Jennifer Rubin

Posted on 05/28/2012 12:19:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Not too long ago pundits were arguing that Mitt Romney’s path to 270 electoral votes was “narrow.” We didn’t buy it.

Lo and behold, conventional wisdom has now changed. The Associated Press writes: “Warning signs for Obama on tight path to 270.” The AP explains:

Obama’s new worries about North Carolina and Wisconsin offer opportunities for Republican Mitt Romney, who must peel off states Obama won in 2008 if he’s to cobble together the 270 electoral votes needed to oust the incumbent in November.

Iowa, which kicked off the campaign in January, is now expected to be tight to the finish, while New Mexico, thought early to be pivotal, seems to be drifting into Democratic territory.

If the election were today, Obama would likely win 247 electoral votes to Romney’s 206, according to an Associated Press analysis of polls, ad spending and key developments in states, along with interviews with more than a dozen Republican and Democratic strategists both inside and outside of the two campaigns.

Seven states, offering a combined 85 electoral votes, are viewed as too close to give either candidate a meaningful advantage: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

Among that group, you have to like Romney’s chance in Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia, with Iowa and Colorado going to the President Obama. That puts Romney’s total at 276....

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Colorado; Florida; Iowa; Massachusetts; Nevada; New Hampshire; New Mexico; North Carolina; Ohio; Virginia; Wisconsin; Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012election; colorado; election2012; florida; iowa; kenyanbornmuzzie; massachusetts; mittromney; nevada; newhampshire; newmexico; northcarolina; obama; ohio; romney; virginia; wisconsin
There used to be a saying that "Iowa wil go Democratic when Hell goes Methodist" but I guess that's no longer true.
1 posted on 05/28/2012 12:20:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

http://www.badgerband.com/music/audio/bud.mp3


2 posted on 05/28/2012 12:24:15 PM PDT by bsdsan
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
From the article, absolute PROOF of loser Romney's weakness.

"If the election were today, Obama would likely win 247 electoral votes to Romney’s 206"

ANY OTHER CONSERVATIVE WOULD WIN TODAY, TOMORROW, AND November.

And THAT is why Romney was chosen by the DNC.

3 posted on 05/28/2012 12:38:24 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What data is she seeing that would lead one to believe Iowa, Nevada and Colorado are competitive for Mittens?


4 posted on 05/28/2012 12:50:42 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The way it appears today is that either Romney or BHO will win the presidency. I will vomit no matter who wins on election day. A liberal R or a liberal D - are still liberals.


5 posted on 05/28/2012 12:54:58 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: ScottinVA

lds vote will push Romney over the top, probably Colorado as well.


6 posted on 05/28/2012 12:57:06 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Democrats kind of think the economy is doing o.k. Plus, they think Obama is a great campaigner. Plus, they really don’t believe that Rasmussen and Gallup show this race to be close. Therefore, they think, the race is theirs to lose.

On the other hand, we have already seen about a half dozen Democrat Senators, Governors and Congressmen dissociate themselves from Obama. And, the money isn’t coming in as projected for Obama. So, who exactly are the Democrats who think the race is Obama’s to lose?

It is an increasingly narrow circle of cult-like followers and hangers-on. Everybody else realizes this is going to be a big year for the Republicans. We will win just about all the races thought, at this time, to be close and also a good number of surprises.

Did I mention that the index of leading indicators went down this month? Has anybody in the mainstream media mentioned this?


7 posted on 05/28/2012 1:10:00 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; LdSentinal; Norman Bates; ...

A lot of states which Obama won comfortably in 2008 may be in play. I include the following:

Pennsylvania: This could be the state that ends Obama’s Presidency. Democrats have won it since 1992, but Bush nearly won in 2004 and even the hapless Bob Dole ran better-than-expected there in 1996.

Nevada: IMHO, McCain got caught off guard. The terrible economy hurts Obama badly now. Also, the state has a significant Mormon vote. The Reno area and suburbs of Las Vegas will decide the outcome.

Wisconsin: Watch the recall vote VERY CLOSELY. Also, George W. Bush very nearly won the state twice.

Colorado: Obama won by a larger-than-expected margin and demographic trends favor the ‘Rats. However, there are strong conservative voting blcos (especially Colorado Springs) and the economy is bad.

Minnesota: An improbable place, but still an opportunity. It nearly went for George W. Bush twice and ex-Governor Tim Pawlenty will go all out for Romney. Republicans did very, very well there in the 2010 off-year elections.

The author makes an interesting point about the Hispanic vote. Obama is far ahead natoinwide among Hispanics, but that’s bloated by overwhelming margins among Hispanics in California, Illinois, and New York. Among Hispanics in Florida and Texas, for example, his margins are less impressive.


8 posted on 05/28/2012 1:11:03 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama and Company lied, the American economy died)
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To: Redmen4ever; 2ndDivisionVet
It is an increasingly narrow circle of cult-like followers and hangers-on. Everybody else realizes this is going to be a big year for the Republicans. We will win just about all the races thought, at this time, to be close and also a good number of surprises.

Watch the (BO) pond dry up.

9 posted on 05/28/2012 1:23:14 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: Clintonfatigued

Minnesota: An improbable place, but still an opportunity. It nearly went for George W. Bush twice and ex-Governor Tim Pawlenty will go all out for Romney. Republicans did very, very well there in the 2010 off-year elections.


Yes they did. but in a statewide election you get Dimbulbs like Dayton.

You have to get the core metro area to stay home or the dimbulbs will win the statewide offices much like they did in 2010.


10 posted on 05/28/2012 1:42:18 PM PDT by cableguymn
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To: svcw
Lds vote will push Romney over the top, probably Colorado as well.

It would be funny as hell if a ton of unregistered Mormon wives who are never let out of the house suddenly showed up at the polls to vote for Romney. The Democrats, who pull manufactured crap like this all the time would complain but what could they do? THEY passed all the crap to allow this sort of thing to happen.

11 posted on 05/28/2012 1:52:41 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Wisconsin will go red for the first time since 1988. And Mittens Romney and the GOP-E will take the credit.

Sorry guys, but it’ll be Scott Walker who is the hero here.
And typical of the RNC, this factoid will not be acknowledged.

Conservatives are the ones working the hardest in this state right now..Grassroots, Conservative, Tea Party activists.

Hmmm. Reince, Ryan and the establishment gang must have misplaced our phone numbers.
I’m sure our gifts are in the mail.


12 posted on 05/28/2012 1:54:20 PM PDT by Mountain Mary (One Nation Under God..."There I said it" ... Great One...)
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To: Diogenesis

And THAT is why Romney was chosen by the DNC.


Why don’t you hold your breath and stomp your feet.


13 posted on 05/28/2012 2:08:26 PM PDT by Lucas McCain
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To: Mountain Mary

NJ Sen Menendez every 2 years seems to like to claim GOP Senate candidate for any state was not in touch with that state’s values.
I am guessing Tammy Baldwin is to far left for Wisconsin. Pres. Obama I dare you, campaign with Baldwin, hold hand in unity!


14 posted on 05/28/2012 2:21:19 PM PDT by SMGFan
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; SunkenCiv; Clintonfatigued; Just A Nobody; chicagolady; EternalVigilance; ...
It's interesting to talk about the electoral map, and we all like to do so. But in an essentially two-candidate national presidential race, if you win the popular vote by two percentage points or more, you have almost a lock on the electoral vote. In other words, the electoral vote becomes dicey only when the candidates are within a couple of points of each other nationally.

If you look at all the presidential elections since 1888, only in one race did a candidate win the electoral vote without gaining a plurality of the popular vote (if we include fraud): that, of course would be George W. Bush vs. Al Gore in 2000, who trailed in the popular vote by a mere half a percentage point.

In the current race, although we still have more than five months until the election, the educated guess is that Romney will beat Obama by more than a couple of points nationally. So, should that occur, Jennifer Rubin need not waste her time figuring out how Romney will win the Electoral College. It will almost surely follow by the rules of probability and statistics.

15 posted on 05/28/2012 2:34:10 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: justiceseeker93

“So, should that occur, Jennifer Rubin need not waste her time figuring out how Romney will win the Electoral College. It will almost surely follow by the rules of probability and statistics.”

True, but if Obama is defeated for reelection, we want the electoral vote victory to be as wide as possible, so that a mandate can be claimed.


16 posted on 05/28/2012 2:41:34 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama and Company lied, the American economy died)
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To: ScottinVA

What data is she seeing that would lead one to believe Iowa, Nevada and Colorado are competitive for Mittens?

What States Border Utah and have large Mormon Populations?


17 posted on 05/28/2012 2:52:09 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: CPT Clay

Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada all have regions where there is strong Mormon representation.


18 posted on 05/28/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by Normandy
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To: CPT Clay

not iowa


19 posted on 05/28/2012 3:14:40 PM PDT by mamelukesabre
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To: Diogenesis

If you’d kept reading instead of fulminating, you’d have seen:
“That puts Romney’s total at 276.”

The 247/206 initial comment just allocates the EVs by state propensity; then she analyzes the swing states. There is no way any conservative would take today’s CA or NY or VT or or or. The battle will be among the half dozen or so states that could go either way. At the moment, that favors Romney.


20 posted on 05/28/2012 4:05:30 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: justiceseeker93

You don’t mention Clinton in ‘92 and ‘96. Prior to 1888 there were several, most notably Lincoln.


21 posted on 05/28/2012 4:09:11 PM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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22 posted on 05/28/2012 4:37:14 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93)
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To: Eleutheria5
You don't mention Clinton in '92 and '96.

Clinton had a plurality in the popular vote both those years, i.e., he led in the popular vote, and did so by a comfortable seven points, IIRC.

You misread my post. First of all, I was referring to to essentially two-candidate races (third party candidates not strong enough to have any impact). Secondly, I didn't say that the winner of the popular vote needed an absolute majority, only that he have a 2 point or more margin in the popular vote to be virtually certain of winning the Electoral College.

As for Lincoln, he won four-man race in 1860 and he also won a strong plurality of the popular vote, though not a majority. His three opponents divided the opposition vote quite evenly.

23 posted on 05/28/2012 4:50:24 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: justiceseeker93

Oh. Late at night. Brain at less than full performance. Sorry.


24 posted on 05/28/2012 4:55:30 PM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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To: justiceseeker93; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; ...

Thanks justiceseeker93.


25 posted on 05/28/2012 5:24:47 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (FReepathon 2Q time -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: justiceseeker93

Nice analysis!!!


26 posted on 05/29/2012 10:19:02 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (We may die, but DISCO LIVES FOREVER!!!)
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To: justiceseeker93

Exactly. Which is why I’m not overly concerned about states polls right now.


27 posted on 05/29/2012 4:20:25 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There used to be a saying that "Iowa wil go Democratic when Hell goes Methodist" but I guess that's no longer true.

After going Republican in 28 of the previous 33 Presidential Elections, Iowa has gone to the Democrat in 5 of the last 6 (and GWB's '04 victory was only 50%-49%).

28 posted on 06/26/2012 11:43:58 AM PDT by newgeezer (It is [the people's] right and duty to be at all times armed. --Thomas Jefferson)
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