Posted on 06/18/2012 2:39:03 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Something strange is going on in the election campaign.
Former president Bill Clinton seems to look for every opportunity to undermine the sitting president of his own party. His former political aides publish a memorandum saying the White House message strategy is failing. The morning reports have the press corps dismissing President Obama's supposedly major speech in Ohio Thursday as a windy nothing-burger.
Everyone agrees that the president has had one bad day after another, beginning more or less with Gov. Scott Walker's victory in the Wisconsin recall election, the first governor in American history to survive a recall effort. Did that Democratic recall loss throw the White House off its game? Did it prompt the Clinton people to sound Paul Revere-like alarms to the soldiers within their party's ranks that the GOP army was coming and everyone had better get out of bed and get cracking?
Here is what is strange. All this bad news comes as the Real Clear Politics average of all polls shows the president still ahead of former Gov. Mitt Romney. Usually politicians don't push the panic button when they lead in the polls.
True, the Democrats' margin has shrunk from something like seven points in late February to 1.2 percent today—a spread within the margin of error. But Mr. Obama has remained consistently ahead.
And yet….
The margin of the Walker victory surprised Democratic Party pros. They tried to cover how bad it was by blaming spending unleashed via the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision. But as many have already pointed out, if Citizens United had any impact (the Wisconsin election fell under state rather than federal law after all), it was to favor the Democrats. Walker's funds came from individuals, and individuals have long had no legal restrictions on what they could give in independent expenditures. His opponent, Tom Barrett, relied heavily on union money, which Citizens United did in fact legally unleash.
So you had to give the Democrats credit in those early hours after the polls closed for finger pointing. They were ready to say anything so as not to acknowledge that, despite a campaign of unprecedented volume and ferocity, the voters had rejected them and their positions. But for getting their message out, just those days last year of closing down the entire state government with demonstrations in the capitol building were worth ten of millions dollars in advertising. Adding everything up, they went into the election with the greater resources.
But that margin. Polls had shown a much tighter race.
All of a sudden, the ghost of elections past is haunting the president and his party. In 1980, in 1994, in 2004—in other words, in big Republican years over the past three-plus decades—the GOP has polled much weaker than its final vote.
Why? Late deciders may be part of the answer, but only part.
Something more is almost surely going on. Here's my guess as to what.
Particularly in big years when the party is pulling in or turning out occasional rather than reliable party voters, part of the GOP vote is invisible to pollsters. In Wisconsin—maybe everywhere—there may be reluctance among union members to acknowledge that they will cast their ballot for candidates and the party their leadership so virulently opposes.
Then, too, people tend to see pollsters as extensions of the media. Many conservatives distrust the media, seeing it (for good reason) as adversarial to all they support. So they may not want to be candid with questioners.
Whatever the reason, the big miss by pollsters in Wisconsin raises the question: Could there be a similarly invisible Romney vote in play this year? Almost alone among major pollsters, Scott Rasmussen is showing Romney ahead now. I have heard some pollsters suggest that his 100 percent automated questioning might skew the results away from the Democrats, whose minority supporters may not want to respond to machine calls.
But maybe it goes the other way. Maybe reticent Republican voters are more confident of their anonymity and the objectivity of questions coming from a machine voice and entered responses
But whatever the technical factors at play, the invisible-to-pollsters Walker support in Wisconsin suggests that President Obama is facing the same phenomenon nationally.
And why not?
Heart-stopping increases in government spending, dangerous-to-the-national-welfare run ups in deficits and national debt, plummeting labor force participation rates (thanks to almost invisible jobs growth), trampling rule of law including transparent attempts to intimidate the Supreme Court in the Obamacare case, fumbling foreign policy justified as "lead from behind" which appears to really mean "don't lead at all," and, oh, yes, a 40 percent drop in family net worth: Looked at objectively, shouldn't this record spell disaster at the polls for the party in power?
The real question is not "Why are Democrats and their friends hitting the panic button now?" It is "Why has it taken them so long?"
Was he supposed to take the bait? He needs to focus on the economy not Obama’s demographic group of the day.
You are mistaken. Mr. RomneyCARE is slated
for a SOLID LOSS.
First, Mr. RINO RomneyCARE Always loses.
Second, Conservatives are so disappointed
with Mr. McRomneyCARE as to be REJECTED.
Many will not vote.
The Democrats who voted for Mr. RomneyCARE in the
primaries will not do so again.
The Legion of Cheaters Mr. RomneyCARE moved from state
to state are not available in ALL STATES on election day.
The GOPe has finished the GOP
if the backstabbing RINO Mr. RomneyCARE is nominated.
We're now watching them redo their roster and reposition pieces on the board for the next season.
Exactly right....and I thought I was only one doing this. Let's hope there are millions of us...many millions!
Not true!
Romney has, and is campaigning on ending Obamacare and replacing it with another big government health care bill with exchanges Will the replacement health care program pushed by Romney be better than Obamacare?
My guess is 20 years from now the difference will be insignificant.
ok realistic birther I have a question. Suppose Romney wins and the 0 is booted out of office next January or after his second term should he win this year. Is there any value after he has left office in bringing up his birth status at that point? If it was determined after his term in office that he was in fact ineligible could every law he signed be made null and void and would there be any value in that? Would anyone in politics feel that was worth pursuing?
There are therapies for obsessional behavior. Avail yourself of them ...
You opine that turnout will be low then work your little fingers to the quick trying to suppress turnout. Ah, but then you whine that that is not what you’re doing, you’re just ‘informing the people’ about how bad the Rominy selection is so there is no reason to vote for either presidential nominee, all the while kjnowing that most increased turnout is pushed by folks going to vote for someone. Yeah, I think it’s known as a self-fulfilling prophecy. You so smart
Sorry, Mr. ON-YOUR-NEES-TO-RINOS, but
we will work against RINOs. ALL OF THEM,
EVEN if THEY, themselves, invented RomneyCARE/ObamaCARE
which appears to be the reason YOU support Mr. RomneyCARE.
I’m just giving my opinion, and I don’t want to argue the point. If you disagree with me, I understand that and accept that.
But in my honest (and humble) opinion, this issue is going nowhere and we should concentrate on those issues that have a chance of removing this dictator from office.
It’s just my opinion, and I understand others have other very strongly held opinions on the subject.
Just because I don’t choose to get into a point-by-point argument on the subject doesn’t mean I lose the right to offer my opinion, that there is no way in h*ll Obama is going to be impeached on the question of his eligibility. It’s just not going to happen. In my opinion.
Oooo, so articulate!
The GOPe placed a left of center Rominy on the ticket at the top for distinct reasons related to the manipulation of the globalist economy. Why did they do this? Because the little barry bastard commie they thought would do their bidding has proven to be more true to his commie colors than their fascist colors, so he must be replaced by somoene who might be able to stop the economic bleeding. Far from a mistake or failing, the GOPe is charging right ahead on their globalist agenda.
Sadly, Rominy may be the last chance We The People have to retake OUR country, because even the globalists realize that little bastard boy Barry is destorying deacdes of what these globalist have worked for, so over the next four years We The People may be able to put into Congress enough true oath keeprs to OUR Constitution that we save our nation. But if turnout can be suppressed by 'well-meaning Romney haters' then all beats are off and prepping is the last stand.
Have you finished your stockpiling of prepper things and now you demand the nation collapse so you can smugly bunker hunker?
Just like an amen in the church, mention Romney and the Dem trolls disguised as well meaning conservatives come out of the woodwork spewing their anti-Romney venom over and over and over again. Why? Are you trying to encourage people to help Obama? If not, what possible good can you accomplish by denigrating the only hope we have of ending Obama’s reign? Do you actually think that every negative thing there is to say about Romney hasn’t already been said? Do you care that posts like this don’t help any conservative anywhere but are a tremendous boon to America’s number one enemy? No one cares who you do or don’t vote for, but this constant Romney bashing is juvenile, serves no good purpose, and is getting tiresome.
You are forgetting something very important.
If the Republicans take the Senate and keep the House, Romney becomes a rubber stamp. He will have 3 jobs.
1. Rebuild America’s reputation abroad
2. Sign every bill that the Republicans hand him for creating jobs and getting rid of the stench of the last 4 years.
3. Campaigning for reelection.
“Here’s the clear advantage to Romney. I would rather have a first term Romney than a second term Kenyan. Freed of the need to get reelected, the Kenyan will be in a position to enact the full socialist program. Looking for a second term, Romney will be more cautious.
It’s a minor advantage but undeniable.”
Voting for Romney will give us potentially 12 years of bad policy instead of just 4.
I want TERM LIMITS! and to vote on all their pay raises, and what their salaries are to be along with shoving them onto BC/BS and them paying their fair share of it.
Go ahead and vote for the RINO who is no better than what we now have. Or stand up for Freedom like our Founding Fathers.
Now I'll get blasted again because I refuse to drink the gop koolaide. When what I said is only the truth. A RINO is a dem in gop label. Well I don't want to see another post about Graham, Snowe, Collins or others of that ilk, you complain about them, yet keep voting them in. Now you are going to do the insane thing for the highest office of the land.
This REPUBLIC is ours ONLY if we can KEEP IT. And voting in the lesser of 2 evils is still voting for evil, there is no such thing as a lesser evil.
That depends on how many REAL CONSAERVATIVES we can get elected. Current make up is to liberal to do what you say. We have to many RINOS in both houses, along with the fence straddlers like McCain, Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker to name a few. And yes I know what Lamar and Corker are they are my fence straddler senators. And Corker has no real opposition for this election. Lamar is not up until 2014.
Do they even have a bench?
A bunch of retired old pols called in at the last moment is not a roster and they have nothing to reposition. They are doubling down on their statist control freak positions, which is just strengthening opposition to them.
Locally, I am hearing avowed socialists cry and moan. Some are even admitting that their 20-nothing kids have rejected Mom and Dad’s lifestyle and politics. Other statists are silent, thin-lipped and pale. Some are just laughing nervously and backing away slowly from their past years involvement with total transformation while denying that was ever their goal.
Their next season will be at least 8 years in the future.
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