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Survey USA Poll: Obama's Lead Cut in Half Since Last Poll (Could Obama actually lose Minnesota?)
KSTP-TV ^ | July 22, 2012 | Michelle Knoll

Posted on 07/23/2012 1:06:00 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

RESULTS OF SURVEY USA/KSTP Poll

In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 07/20/12, three months till voting begins, Barack Obama captures the North Star State's 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 46% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis / St. Paul.

Romney and Obama are effectively even among male voters. All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points. Romney edges Obama among Minnesota's Independents, but not by enough to offset Obama's 2:1 advantage among Minnesota's moderates. Romney leads in Northeastern MN, but Obama leads in the rest of the state.

Voters are divided over whether job creation or health care is the most important issue facing Minnesotans. Importantly: those who say health care is most important split evenly between Obama and Romney. Those who say job creation is most important split evenly between Obama and Romney. Neither candidate has an advantage on these issues in Minnesota.

Romney voters are divided on which Republican Romney should pick as his running mate. 36% name former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. 29% name Florida's U.S. Senator Marco Rubio.

In an election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar soundly defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills, 55% to 31%. Klobuchar leads among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, and in all regions of the state. 21% of those who vote for Mitt Romney for President cross over and vote for the DFL candidate for U.S. Senate.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 07/17/12 through 07/19/12. Of them, 621 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/06/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

40% Mitt Romney (R) 46% Barack Obama (D) 7% Other 7% Undecided

2 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?

31% Kurt Bills (R) 55% Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 5% Other 9% Undecided

3 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes in for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?

31% Health Care 31% Job Creation 15% Taxes 4% Gas Prices 2% War On Terrorism 4% Education 8% Something Else 5% Not Sure

4 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Who would you most like to see Mitt Romney choose as his Vice Presidential running mate? Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty? Ohio Senator Rob Portman? Florida Senator Marco Rubio? Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan? Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal? Or someone else?

35% Pawlenty 4% Portman 16% Rubio 7% Ryan 3% Jindal 21% Someone Else 14% Not Sure

5 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

52% Vote For 37% Vote Against 5% Not Vote 6% Not Sure

6 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot would require voters to show photo I.D.'s in order to vote on Election Day. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

65% Vote For 28% Vote Against 2% Not Vote 4% Not Sure

7 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a Democratic candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?

40% Republican 45% Democratic 8% Independence Party 2% Other 6% Undecided

8 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Which one issue will be most important when casting your vote for a Minnesota legislator? Job creation? Education? Taxes? Health care? Or something else?

32% Job Creation 15% Education 27% Taxes 17% Health Care 6% Something Else 2% Not Sure

9 Asked of 552 likely voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

The Minnesota Legislature passed a Vikings stadium bill in May. If a lawmaker voted in favor of the Vikings stadium would that make you more likely to vote for him in November? Less likely? Or would it make no difference?

23% More Likely 33% Less Likely 42% No Difference 2% Not Sure

10 Asked of 621 registered voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

Should the new Vikings stadium have a retractable roof?

55% Yes 23% No 21% Not Sure


TOPICS: Minnesota; Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: minnesota; obama; polls; romney

1 posted on 07/23/2012 1:06:12 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

END WOMEN’S SUFFRAGE -— THEY’VE SUFFERED LONG ENOUGH!


2 posted on 07/23/2012 1:16:47 AM PDT by rhinohunter (DraftWalkerNow)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The short answer is NO. The republican party in MN is in shambles. Romney is not spending any time or money. Before people point to 1 poll I suggest as with anything follow the money. Find out where candidates are putting there money that is where the election is decided.


3 posted on 07/23/2012 1:54:29 AM PDT by chopperjc
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Romney carries MN; he will win the Election by a landslide. MN is almost as Blue as CA and NY.


4 posted on 07/23/2012 1:55:11 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

In 2008 Obama claimed that running his campaign gave him executive expireince to be president. But now his campaign operated on a deficit. Let alone the country.

In a sane world there would be no elected President Obama.


5 posted on 07/23/2012 2:13:54 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Romney leads in Northeastern MN, but Obama leads in the rest of the state.

No way this is correct. Something is screwy in this poll.

6 posted on 07/23/2012 2:17:37 AM PDT by johniegrad
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I doubt Romney or any GOP Presidential candidate will carry MN in the foreseeable future, but it looks like support is strong for traditional marriage and voter ID.


7 posted on 07/23/2012 3:02:04 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: johniegrad

Agree, Johnie - I’m in West Central Minnesota. There is NO way Zero is anywhere near leading around here.


8 posted on 07/23/2012 3:28:02 AM PDT by mn-bush-man
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To: chopperjc

Any state where Obama is under 50% consistantly, he is very likley to lose. It means a majority don’t want him, they just haven’t reconciled to Romney yet.


9 posted on 07/23/2012 3:34:24 AM PDT by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points.

Which is why the country has gone steadily downhill since 1920. Giving women the right to vote has led to a steadily progressive state.

10 posted on 07/23/2012 4:02:22 AM PDT by packrat35 (Admit it! We are almost ready to be called a police state!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Will be a whole lot of fun watching this narcissist marxist punk go bonkers when he realizes we’ve rejected him and his messiah complex.


11 posted on 07/23/2012 5:14:21 AM PDT by Joe Boucher ((FUBO) Hey Mitt, F-you too pal)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Will be a whole lot of fun watching this narcissist marxist punk go bonkers when he realizes we’ve rejected him and his messiah complex.


12 posted on 07/23/2012 5:22:42 AM PDT by Joe Boucher ((FUBO) Hey Mitt, F-you too pal)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Over sampled Democrats by 5%.


13 posted on 07/23/2012 5:32:32 AM PDT by BushCountry (I hope the Mayans are wrong!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Could Obama actually lose Minnesota?

Let's not get carried away...here...

14 posted on 07/23/2012 5:34:13 AM PDT by stevem
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points.

Women love communism. Next.

15 posted on 07/23/2012 5:38:17 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Likely voters so it’s pretty reliable. Even if you factor in the margin of error, Zero can just barely reach 50 in MN!! If the MOE flips the other way, he’s barely above 40...did I say this is MN?


16 posted on 07/23/2012 5:49:15 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

“Could Obama actually loose Minnesota?”........

He could loose the entire country if people would open their minds, get off the couch and vote the bastard out.

Question: Have they sent out the ballots to the military people who are overseas yet? There is still time to get them to vote and get the completed ballots back.


17 posted on 07/23/2012 6:17:01 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The lily-white states, like MN may well come into play, given the president’s election strategy to discard that segment of the population and put together a coalition of various minorities and special interests.

Romney’s 2-minute ad showing a white guy being personally insulted after being told he didn’t build his business would play very, very well to those people.


18 posted on 07/23/2012 7:07:57 AM PDT by BobL
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To: johniegrad
No way this is correct. Something is screwy in this poll.

I wouldn't be too sure about that, Kravaack got elected up there, beating a long-time democrat liberal.
19 posted on 07/23/2012 7:36:10 AM PDT by Thorliveshere
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To: BobL

I have to respectfully disagree (that Mn is in play)

HUGE obstacles to overcome in this state-

1. RED Startribune- 100% in Demonrat pocket- ALL news
Stories disparage conservatives and help the most Radical
Demonrats- - (Franken, Keith Ellison, Mark Dayton.)
2. St paul pioneer depressed- Again, majority news in favor
of the Rats- AND they are Pro big union even more than
The Redstar.
3. Duluth News- same
4. Rochester news -same
So... most people get a slant towards the Demons

5. Churches- ELCA- pro Homosexual openly endorse same sex
unions,homo,lesbian and transgender pastors.
The Catholic Church for years- (if not Decades) promoted
homsexual unions- (Even held “celebration Masses)in churches -Even at the Cathedral in St. Paul. so, morally the
people of Minn. have an uphill battle- (this crap was
taught to their kids)
I hope I am wrong, but there are alot of O’bummer voters that I meet in the twin cities- (mostly women)


20 posted on 07/23/2012 7:37:44 AM PDT by mj1234
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To: rhinohunter

Great news for the marriage amendment and voter ID. Hooray!


21 posted on 07/23/2012 7:42:31 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Thorliveshere

If you look at what the poll said, it should be about the opposite of what was reported. Obama should be leading in northeastern Minnesota (and inner city MPLS) with Romney leading everywhere else.


22 posted on 07/23/2012 7:43:27 AM PDT by johniegrad
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To: Progov

My point is, if this is the info they are telling us, about a solid blue state for the last at least three elections, and Zero can’t get above 50 even if you cut him every statistical break possible? He’s in deep doo.


23 posted on 07/23/2012 7:56:01 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
2 things:
(1) When this "Blue State, Red State" crap started, it was trhe Red states that were Democrat-inclined. The Republicans, True Blue. The MSM snuck the change in unnoticed!

(2) I have no doubt that Republicans will carry Minnesotas live voters. However, they have not devoted enough time to (a) registering the dead, and (b) registering illegal aliens and (c) equipping inner city churches with new vans to squire African-American voters to multiple polling places, after of course, they complete their absentee ballots, enjoy breakfast, and receive street money.

Madison of course will always be Madison. Very enthusiast voters. In fact in the Walker Recall, they turned out 119%. Of course, the students are trained to also vote at home via absentee ballots.

But wait, there's more. Have I told you about the "Virtual Voter?" Registered voters no longer nerd be live or dead, or even legal or illegal immigrants. In fact they need exist only on a hard drive, living at a virtual address, surrounded by a virtual family (also voters).. SIM City? Nah. It's here now in a formerly RED state near you. Like Minnesota.

24 posted on 07/23/2012 10:27:54 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (What Hawaii gave to Obama, was not what Obama gave to us.)
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To: mj1234

“I have to respectfully disagree (that Mn is in play). HUGE obstacles to overcome in this state-”

Most of the reasons that you give have much more effect when you had two candidates that were not all that well known to the voting public (as opposed to us political junkies). So back then, they heard us extremists saying things like Obama is a Socialist - but the newspapers instead said that he was all but the Second Coming of Christ - so who does the public at large believe? Unfortunately, the media.

Now things are different (as Jimmy Carter learned) - now people have had nearly 4 years to form their own opinions of him. Yes, blacks still love him - but others, I don’t think so...and the guilt-vote is gone. These people did what was required of them (for owning slaves, right up until 2007, LOL) and voted to make up for it. Those votes are GONE, which is why the president is going to get his clocked cleaned as long as Romney doesn’t do anything really dumb...which he hasn’t yet.


25 posted on 07/23/2012 5:42:35 PM PDT by BobL
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To: Hugin

Interesting theory. That of course has no basis in fact. History shows us how off the mark that is. Easy to check. Look at polling in past presidential elections and you will see. Second problem with your theory has Romney rallying people around him. This statement I find funny. Romney has no vision no standards and no platform. He is hiding things and also is Conde ding. It is a shame because your theory has a bit of truth. Obama is flawed and beatable by a good candidate. Instead we gave the public Romney.


26 posted on 07/23/2012 8:55:11 PM PDT by chopperjc
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To: chopperjc

Actually if you check the poling data, no president with less that 50% (or his party) has won with the sole exception of G.W. Bush in 2004. In every other modern election the undecideds broke heavily for the challenger.

Second, I said nothing about voters “rallying” to Romney. I said “reconcile”, a word I chose deliberately. A majority already don’t like Obama. They don’t have to love Romney, they just have to decide that he is an acceptable alternative to a proven incompetent. That’s a pretty low bar, even for Myth.


27 posted on 07/24/2012 2:47:02 PM PDT by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obama losing Minnesota is like Stalin losing Moscow.
28 posted on 07/24/2012 2:48:35 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (You can almost hear the footsteps of Jesus. He is right at the door!)
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To: packrat35
All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points.

I have two nieces that live in Minnesota.

One just posted a diatribe on Facebook from Rachel Maddow and the other posted a Women For Obama blurb on her Facebook page.

To the first niece I posted: OMG! You just posted a quote from Rachel Madcow! ROTFLMAO! Did you hurt your back reaching to that low of a level?

To the other niece I posted: Shouldn't it be "Women For Backing Up the Titanic and Hitting the Iceberg Again?"

29 posted on 07/24/2012 3:02:45 PM PDT by N. Theknow (Kennedys=Can't drive, can't ski, can't fly, can't skipper a boat, but they know what's best for you.)
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