Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Is President Obama Above Water, and If So, Why?
Power Line ^ | July 23, 2012 | John Hinderaker

Posted on 07/24/2012 12:21:22 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

This morning David Gelernter wrote a thought-provoking post titled, “What Keeps This Failed President Above Water?” How can a president with a record as terrible as Barack Obama’s be running essentially even in the polls? I have some thoughts on that question from a perspective that is slightly different from Gelernter’s.

First of all, it is questionable whether Obama is, in reality, above water. He can’t get his approval rating out of the 40s, nor can he get a majority in any head-to-head poll with Mitt Romney, even among registered voters or “adults.” For a sitting president more than three months out from the election, that is a poor performance. The voters’ disgruntlement with Obama shows up in poll after poll. At the moment, Romney leads Obama 46-43 in the Rasmussen Survey. Today a new Gallup/USA Today poll got a lot of attention:

Despite concerted Democratic attacks on his business record, Republican challenger Mitt Romney scores a significant advantage over President Obama when it comes to managing the economy, reducing the federal budget deficit and creating jobs, a national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.

By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney’s background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation’s economic problems over the next four years.

USA Today is quick to note that Obama does well in some measures unrelated to the economy:

To be sure, Obama retains significant advantages of his own. By 2-1, he’s rated as more likable than Romney.

Yeah, right. A couple of things are going on there. A great many Americans have only the vaguest impression of Romney and have no idea whether he is likable or not. And saying that Obama is “likable” is a good thing to tell a pollster after you have expressed the opinion that he doesn’t know jack about the economy. “He’s a nice guy, but…”

My guess is that the conventional wisdom will prove correct. Undecided voters will break against Obama in the campaign’s late days, and Romney will win fairly handily. That is, the electoral map will look more like 2004 than 2000.

All of that said, it is remarkable that 40%-plus of Americans say they intend to vote for Obama. Where have they been for the last four years? I think there are several reasons why a president as awful as Obama can command substantial support. The first is that an enormous number of Americans’ fortunes are more closely tied to government spending than to the economy. If you spend $3 to $4 trillion a year, you can buy a lot of votes.

The problem is compounded by the fact that so many Americans don’t pay any income taxes. If you don’t pay income taxes, and if you aren’t especially public-spirited, why, exactly, should you object to the Democrats’ spending spree? This chart from Investors Business Daily illustrates the trend:

Something like 50% of American households cash government checks, and more than 40% pay no income taxes. Do the math; it isn’t surprising that borrow-and-spend has more political appeal than it deserves.

Another factor is sheer partisanship. For millions of people, party loyalty is strong enough to bend perceptions of reality–or at least to bend the manner in which reality is described to pollsters. Thus, throughout the Obama years, African-Americans have rated the economy better than other demographic groups, even though objectively, they have suffered disproportionately. That can only be explained by loyalty to “their guy.” More broadly, Democrats express much more optimism about the economy than Republicans and Independents, as this Rasmussen poll finds:

Democrats have a much more optimistic view of the U.S. economy than either Republicans or unaffiliated adults.

Currently, just 36% of Democrats believe the economy is in poor shape, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling. Nearly twice as many Republicans (67%) offer such a pessimistic view. So do 54% of those not affiliated with either major party.

Put bluntly, if you are delusional about the economy, it makes sense that you might be willing to vote for Obama.

Currently, President Obama is hanging around like a sports team that by rights ought to be losing big, but is only a few points behind. In sports, the team that hangs around often puts on a spurt and wins in the end. In this year’s election, I don’t think Obama will be so fortunate. The fact that he commands as much support as he does is troubling, but reality will win out eventually. Here is a prediction: no liberal commentator will say anything of the sort before November, but as soon as the election results are in, a chorus of liberals will say that it is remarkable Obama performed as well as he did. Given how lousy the economy has been, one would have expected him to get clobbered.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2012; economy; obama; polls; romney

1 posted on 07/24/2012 12:21:36 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Shit floats.


2 posted on 07/24/2012 12:28:24 AM PDT by jessduntno ("Racism is not dead...it is on life support - kept alive by politicians..." - Thomas Sowell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
USA Today is quick to note that Obama does well in some measures unrelated to the economy:

Yeah...like golfing and sucking up to gays, perverts, (no pun intended) unions and islamics.

3 posted on 07/24/2012 12:30:53 AM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Put bluntly, if you are delusional about the economy, it makes sense that you might be willing to vote for Obama.”

Maybe they aren’t delusional, when looked at from their point of view. A very large part of the democrat coalition are (1) government employeees, who have done very well in numbers, job security, salary and benefits (2) Entitlement program beneficiaries, who haven’t seen reductions or disappearance of their packages the way working stiffs have and (3) Groups like trial lawyers, wall-streeters et al, who are doing just dandy.


4 posted on 07/24/2012 12:38:17 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The only thing keeping Zero’s head above water? The ‘Fourth Estate.’ Called the Ministry of Truth in G. Orwell’s book, it was responsible for news, entertainment, education and the fine arts. And it corrupted each one of those areas. ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Google, Hollywood, Broadway, the NYT, LAT, your hometown newspaper, all news magazines, your school—grade, high school, university and on and on and on.


5 posted on 07/24/2012 12:52:07 AM PDT by tumblindice (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The only thing keeping Zero’s head above water? The ‘Fourth Estate.’ Called the Ministry of Truth in G. Orwell’s book, it was responsible for news, entertainment, education and the fine arts. And it corrupted each one of those areas. ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Google, Hollywood, Broadway, the NYT, LAT, your hometown newspaper, all news magazines, your school—grade, high school, university and on and on and on.


6 posted on 07/24/2012 12:52:07 AM PDT by tumblindice (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

White guilt. But I think the continued violence by black flash mobs and other sorts of feral thuggery, even if buried by the lamestream media, is eroding that...thankfully.


7 posted on 07/24/2012 12:54:40 AM PDT by re_nortex (DP...that's what I like about Texas.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tumblindice

Exactly...see my tagline.


8 posted on 07/24/2012 12:56:00 AM PDT by Bobalu (It is not obama we are fighting, it is the media.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: jessduntno

I was going to say “copious amounts of hot air” but I think yours has me beat.


9 posted on 07/24/2012 1:06:27 AM PDT by piasa (Attitude adjustments offered here free of charge)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: jessduntno
“Shit floats.”

Only when it's permeated with hot air!

10 posted on 07/24/2012 1:14:32 AM PDT by dalereed
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Me thinks all these polls are false, manipulated to give the appearance that Obama is polling so well. Who are those being polled? No, Obama doing well in the polls is a fallacy. Even the handout crowd is disillusioned. They know if Obama gets reelected the EBT cards will not be loaded anymore, zilch. This might happen in October, Obama and the tinkle down the leg media will spin to say the Republicans and Romney are the blame.This will send the country into a tail spin.


11 posted on 07/24/2012 1:18:24 AM PDT by Fully Awake DAV (Navy Vet when homosexuality was not tolerated)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Very good question....

Unless “the People” are generally as corrupt as the President and his minions..
And.. you know.. we might have now a federal givernment that represents “the People”..

Occams Razor demands that this is true..
America is not becoming Sodom it already is..
Waiting for some metaphorical “Salt”..


12 posted on 07/24/2012 1:29:46 AM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tumblindice

You can say that twice. ;)

Agreed. It’s a cult propaganda machine.


13 posted on 07/24/2012 3:36:51 AM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: hosepipe

“Unless “the People” are generally as corrupt as the President and his minions..”

Maybe not “as corrupt”, but “the People” have no passion for truth, and are intellectually lazy enough to accept the lies of the propaganda media without bothering to fact check.

That, combined with the fact that our re-education system is a giant Marxist moron mill, you have the election and possible re-election of the Kenyan punk bastard.


14 posted on 07/24/2012 3:48:19 AM PDT by MikeSteelBe (Austrian Hitler was, as the Halfrican Hitler does.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Evil and the lack of good men standing up.


15 posted on 07/24/2012 5:02:16 AM PDT by Tigen (I shall raise you one .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

16 posted on 07/24/2012 5:37:36 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MikeSteelBe

our re-education system is a giant Marxist moron mill

Nice turn of phrase there FRiend.
Slides the knife in
smoothly and accurately
with a smile.


17 posted on 07/24/2012 5:39:48 AM PDT by spankalib (The downside of liberty is the need to tolerate those who despise it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama is above water because he is CORRECT that, if the People want to continue to receive mountains of free sh*t without paying for it, want the state to mediate and even require equality of outcomes regardless of effort or desert, and want to do what they like, shoot up with what they like, f*** who they like when and where they like with someone else picking up the tab for the consequences, and want to have an army of low-wage workers at their beck and call to wipe the asses of the babies they don’t kill first, then a socialist dictatorship will be required.


18 posted on 07/24/2012 6:07:15 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown are by desperate appliance relieved or not at all.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obama retains significant advantages of his own. By 2-1, he’s rated as more likable than Romney.

How can that arrogant p***k be likable at all?

19 posted on 07/24/2012 6:08:56 AM PDT by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The David Gelernter article was full of irony.

The author railed against Obama as The Machine Man, and I thought Powerline guys are For Romney.


20 posted on 07/24/2012 6:19:24 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The following caught my eye:

“By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney’s background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation’s economic problems over the next four years.”

Based on what exactly? His term as governor of MA demonstrated no brilliance in economically managing that state - their economy stank!


21 posted on 07/28/2012 3:04:52 AM PDT by SatinDoll
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
GOP Club
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson