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The Real Poll Numbers
DickMorris.com ^ | August 6, 2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 08/06/2012 5:10:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.

On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.

Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.

To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.

If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.

The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.

So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; democrats; dickmorris; obama; polls; romney
Yet Team Romney had better act like he's behind by 15 points and pick at least a somewhat conservative running mate, not a GOP-e or squish.
1 posted on 08/06/2012 5:11:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why didn’t Morris name the polling organization? I might feel better if he did.


2 posted on 08/06/2012 5:15:33 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: CaptainK

Real polling organizations, as opposed to outfits producing grist for the media mill, are very careful about how their data is used. Politicians and businesses pay a real premium to a trusted polling organization and these organizations do not let their data be used for free.

The polls that are published in newspapers and on TV are real junk, designed to drive up readership and viewer stats, nothing more.

Obama has the real polls and he knows that he has a problem.


3 posted on 08/06/2012 5:23:08 PM PDT by centurion316
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

An actual conservative candidate for ‘12 President would do much better, this November. Why be forced to choose between two leftist candidates, as the final MAJOR CHOICES for ‘12 President, when what is really needed the most, for the long-term, is a “small government conservative” candidate for ‘12 POTUS? How is the U.S. not “finished” with, either, Barack Obama, or Mitt Romney as president?


4 posted on 08/06/2012 5:24:28 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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To: CaptainK

He’s most likely seeing internal polls that the public almost never has access to.


5 posted on 08/06/2012 5:26:47 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Dick Morris said the sun would rise tomorrow, I would invest in candles.


6 posted on 08/06/2012 5:27:40 PM PDT by Ingtar ("As the light begins to fade in the city on the hill")
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To: LongWayHome; centurion316

Thanks for that information. I feel better now.


7 posted on 08/06/2012 5:30:26 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias.”

I’m going with the latter...deliberate media propaganda and disinformation designed to manipulate single mom’s, illegal aliens, criminals, and minorities.


8 posted on 08/06/2012 5:30:31 PM PDT by Mister Anderson (Give them nothing, but take from them everything!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I agree. Nothing should be assumed about anything.

The Democrats are going to pull out every dirty trick they know and they could still pull it off.


9 posted on 08/06/2012 5:31:05 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Never before in the history of our nation have we had 8% unemployment for over forty months. We have it now.

It’s Obama’s economy.

Remember this!


10 posted on 08/06/2012 5:31:18 PM PDT by Loud Mime (Defeat Obama. Everything else is secondary)
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To: johnthebaptistmoore

Because Gov. Romney won the Republican nomination and Mr. Obama the Democratic. Here in Realityville, we have two choices. As you know, I wanted Governor Palin or Speaker Gingrich. That didn’t materialize. Anyone who tells me that Mitt is worse than Barack is blowing smoke up my posterior and unlike the Chick-fil-A protestors, I don’t enjoy that.


11 posted on 08/06/2012 5:35:57 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: Ingtar

If Dick Morris said the sun would rise tomorrow, I would invest in candles.
***********************************************

Your correct, he is always wrong. However, he is just repeating information from a polling firm, so they may have a better track record than he does.


12 posted on 08/06/2012 5:41:16 PM PDT by kara37
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado.

I’d be absolutely stunned if Obama repeated in Indiana and North Carolina.

That said, Morris has a long history of well, being wrong. I’m heartened by the numbers, but I’m not taking one single thing for granted until I see Obama giving his concession speech on Election Night.


13 posted on 08/06/2012 5:42:08 PM PDT by DemforBush
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To: kara37
Oops, Your = You’re
14 posted on 08/06/2012 5:43:09 PM PDT by kara37
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To: johnthebaptistmoore

Consider what you wrote.......... think on it. Consider how wrong it is.

There is no conservative candidate and the conservatives all together did not have the votes to beat Romney. There is no conservative with the statue and name recognition and fund raising ability on the scene.

Rush likes to say we are a conservative country but this year the conservatives chose to beat themselves to death while relying on false hopes for the miracle of Sarah that did not materialize.


15 posted on 08/06/2012 5:47:27 PM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s basic math that is often not used on these polls. You need to know from likely voters.

1. How people identify themselves: D/R/I and in what proportion for the last election in that state.
2. Get the current poll results and current D/R/I identification.
3. Adjust for proportion from last election.

The bad polling organizations just do 2.


16 posted on 08/06/2012 5:50:32 PM PDT by cicero2k
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To: kara37
Your You're correct, he is always wrong.
17 posted on 08/06/2012 5:54:40 PM PDT by Isabel C.
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To: DemforBush

Morris didn’t do the polling, so unless he’s lying or the pollster is deceiving him...


18 posted on 08/06/2012 6:00:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: DemforBush

Great to see New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Nevada on that list. Nevada and New Hampshire are listed as “leans Democrat” by Rasmussen, while Wisconsin is a toss-up.


19 posted on 08/06/2012 6:04:23 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: centurion316

How Mitt Romney Mentally Castrated The Obama Campaign
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/07/31/white-house-insider-how-mitt-romney-mentally-castrated-the-obama-campaign/


20 posted on 08/06/2012 6:04:41 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Morris’s mouth is moving, it means he’s either sucking on a hooker’s toes or lying.


21 posted on 08/06/2012 6:11:08 PM PDT by drjimmy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Exactly my sentiments. Other than Ron Paul and Huntsman, Romney was my last choice. But it is what it is.

However, it is absolutely crackpot thinking to say we’re better off with Obama over Romney. Obama is an enemy of this country and will do serious harm with four years and no consequences. The idea that a Republican House and Senate can keep him in check is laughable. Hello DOJ, EPA, IRS, Homeland... They will be unleashed.


22 posted on 08/06/2012 6:14:07 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I hope he’s right for a change


23 posted on 08/06/2012 6:16:14 PM PDT by thepatriot1 (...brought to you courtesy of the Red, White and Blue)
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To: johnthebaptistmoore
Romney can be persuaded on Conservative causes.

Obama can not be persuaded, Obama is a committed Communist.

The choice, for adults, is Romney or Obama.

Romney does not hate my country.

Obama does hate my country.

24 posted on 08/06/2012 6:21:59 PM PDT by Kansas58
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To: DemforBush

It has been a long time since I have heard “Toe sucker” to identify Morris.


25 posted on 08/06/2012 6:25:53 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: Kansas58

While I respect Sarah’s choice, she broke my heart.

That said, it is back to reality.

With Mitt, my kids might have a chance.

With Barack, they have none.

Romney 2012


26 posted on 08/06/2012 6:26:32 PM PDT by redlegplanner ( No Representation without Taxation)
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To: Kansas58

While I respect Sarah’s choice, she broke my heart.

That said, it is back to reality.

With Mitt, my kids might have a chance.

With Barack, they have none.

Romney 2012


27 posted on 08/06/2012 6:26:43 PM PDT by redlegplanner ( No Representation without Taxation)
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To: Kansas58

Preach it, brother!


28 posted on 08/06/2012 6:38:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: billhilly; DemforBush
When I worked for the Iowa Haig for President campaign in 1987-88 all I'd hear from the snide reporters, cameramen and pundits was “I am in charge here at the White House” over and over again. When the media gloms onto something they almost never let up, just like “I can see Russia from my house” which she never even said!!
29 posted on 08/06/2012 6:42:57 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: bert
“Rush likes to say we are a conservative country but this year the conservatives chose to beat themselves to death while relying on false hopes for the miracle of Sarah that did not materialize.”

I think we have a coalition of like-minded people that generally want the same things for the country, although we don't agree on several emotionally charged issues. That's OK, IMHO, as long as we can come together to stop the erosion of what we all agree is the essence of America - the right to be self-defining individuals living in a nation that celebrates the rights of individuals to grow and prosper based on their personal dreams and efforts.

I also think most of those who would vote Republican have similar ethics, and I pretty much think that even those on this board who really dislike Romney could have a good time and find commonality out having beers (or whatever libation) with those on this board who will vote for him. We're in this together, and we need each other. We are not the enemy.

I look at this (the current administration and the democrats in general) like a potentially fatal disease we are trying to eradicate. None of the therapies we have available to us at this time are ideal (e.g. they all have some toxicities and side effects, and thus we pay a price of sorts for using them), but they have the potential of preventing the disease from killing us. I think of Romney this way. He is much, much more of a sophisticated campaigner and politician than McCain has ever been, and he in no way comes across as an amiable but past his prime candidate like Bob Dole. I don't like what he did in Massachusetts with health care, and I don't like many of his positions, but I do not believe that he is a Marxist, but do believe that Obama thinks Marx was brilliant. That is huge distinction, and gives us what I believe is an obvious choice.

That said, I don't ever want to pick fights with the members of my own team, and I believe strongly that most, if not all of us here share much more than what we don't share, and thus we are a team.

30 posted on 08/06/2012 6:43:29 PM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: CaptainK

Because it is likely a company you’ve never heard of. The real insiders, real pros do not usually use the names you are familiar through the public polling process.

And if he used their name...none of those guys will talk to him.

He is a toe sucker, but he used to be one of the big time insiders.


31 posted on 08/06/2012 6:55:53 PM PDT by Vermont Lt (I just hate our government. All of them. Republican and Democrat.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
How Mitt Romney Mentally Castrated The Obama Campaign
http://theulstermanreport.com/2012/07/31/white-house-insider-how-mitt-romney-mentally-castrated-the-obama-campaign/
__________________________________________________

This was a great read. I felt like a kid on Christmas morning after reading it. I will make a guess the unnamed state is Pennsylvania. I have gotten 3 poll call in the last 6 weeks. The last one was last Aug 2. It was the only poll that after I was finished say I would never vote for Obama finished by stating the poll was paid for by the Republican party.

32 posted on 08/06/2012 7:23:27 PM PDT by Plumres
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To: LongWayHome

My thinking as well.


33 posted on 08/06/2012 7:27:44 PM PDT by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
For eons I have been saying the action will be in the Senate this year in terms of voting. Sarah is all over that.

We will go to the poles to double the numbers of conservatives in the Senate and shore the numbers in the House. At that point the Romney lever pull is a tag along. By those potential events alone increase the numbers D. Morris is speaking about because we are energized to do more than one lever pull in terms of the people we are pulling the levers for.

I predicted 60 in the Senate here before Morris did and I stick to my position that the Dem's are gonna get their @$$ kicked so bad this fall it will take them 20 years to recover. Dick is right it will be a landside / blowout, we just can't get soft and not work or donate to make it happen...

34 posted on 08/06/2012 7:36:00 PM PDT by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: FrdmLvr

Yup....Morris may be a twit, but he’s well-connected in the business.


35 posted on 08/06/2012 7:39:19 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: Loud Mime

36 posted on 08/06/2012 7:50:22 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
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To: DemforBush
...every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado...

EV: 11, 4, 10, 5, 15, 9

Unfortunately, that leaves Zero with 300+ electoral votes, a relative easy win with 270 needed.

Another scenario: Romney could win McCain states plus Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado, and Obama would barely win, but win nonetheless.

37 posted on 08/06/2012 7:54:29 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

Nicely written.


38 posted on 08/06/2012 8:05:22 PM PDT by TruthShallSetYouFree (I didn't write this by myself. Obama helped me. Everyone helped me.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I couldn’t agree more! I know Mitt Romney is not most of our first choice. I personally wanted Newt Gingrich but since Romney is the candidate we have I will certainly support him. I am tired of the perfectionists putting him down and even saying he will be worse than Obama.

Folks, lets get behind the candidate we have! There is so much to be said of the difference in the two men and if folks can’t see that then I pity them and their lack of wisdom and understanding.

I have been around here a long time and I don’t like to attack anyone but I am just tired of the comments that imply there isn’t any difference in the men. This is the man we have on the ticket.


39 posted on 08/06/2012 9:19:16 PM PDT by TXLady
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To: Plumres

Thanks for the link to that awesome read!


40 posted on 08/06/2012 10:15:56 PM PDT by karnage
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Y’know, I never really understood Haig’s comments until I took a military history course in college. The prof was retired Air Force, and explained to the class one day exactly what Al Haig was doing. The way he explained it, since Reagan was out of action because of the shooting (obviously), and Bush was out of the country at the moment, we were momentarily leaderless in terms of the nuclear deterrent. Haig went on camera not to reassure the American people, but to make it clear to Moscow that we were, in fact, still quite capable of responding to any effort to exploit the situation.

As for Morris, I don’t have an issue with the poll numbers he’s citing. I just have noticed he tends to be overly optimistic at times and oversells his arguments.

BTW, I wasn’t the one who called him a toesucker in this thread. Billhilly’s got me mixed up with another poster.


41 posted on 08/06/2012 11:18:10 PM PDT by DemforBush
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To: johnthebaptistmoore
An actual conservative candidate was not able to persuade supporters of other actual conservative candidate(s) to vote for him/her during the primaries. And you still believe he/she would do better this November?
42 posted on 08/07/2012 12:55:06 AM PDT by paudio (Two stubborn facts remain: (1) Romney is better than 0bama, and (2) Romney is the Republican Nominee)
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To: jjotto
Romney could win McCain states plus Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado, and Obama would barely win, but win nonetheless.

Actually, after reapportionment, Romney would win under that scenario with 275 EVs.

43 posted on 08/07/2012 2:46:16 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

You have well stated almost exactly what my thoughts are. I think there are many others who are like minded. Alas, some have not survived the ‘12 fray and are no longer with us.

Never the less, we will must plugging on to work toward our conservative ends


44 posted on 08/07/2012 4:08:39 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Hasn’t the Ulsterman crap been outed as fraud?


45 posted on 08/07/2012 6:07:00 AM PDT by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: Paradox

You mean by the hippie couple in their trailer?


46 posted on 08/07/2012 10:31:48 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
You mean by the hippie couple in their trailer?

Not sure whom, but I recall the thread here, where many Freepers indicated that they never believed Ulsterman in the first place.

47 posted on 08/07/2012 5:55:24 PM PDT by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: Paradox

I was referring to Snopes, run by an older left-wing hippy couple from their trailer in California.


48 posted on 08/07/2012 6:01:46 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: taildragger

Yes, but she isn’t dressing appropriately for that task, so all is lost:

Superman T-shirt, towering wedges: New-look Palin ditches boxy suits as she backs Steelman in MO
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2915783/posts


49 posted on 08/07/2012 6:14:00 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: pieceofthepuzzle

I see, both, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as being “non-conservative candidates for ‘12 POTUS who will end up throwing the U.S. over the cliff, for pro-leftist gains”. Both will upset non-leftists way too many times to count!


50 posted on 08/07/2012 11:14:04 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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