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To Stop Mitt, Obama Targets N.C., Florida, Ohio
The Patriot Post / The Washington Examiner ^ | August 12, 2012 | Michael Barone

Posted on 08/12/2012 9:30:30 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Our presidential elections, pundits sometimes remind us, are not national contests, but rather contests in 50 states and the District of Columbia. And since most states lean heavily to one party or the other these days, the only real contests are in a dozen or so target states.

Once upon a time, most states were in play. In the 1976 contest between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, 30 states with 396 electoral votes were carried by less than 10 percent of the votes. Three-quarters of voters lived in those states.

In 2008, the field of play was much smaller. The candidates' percentage margins were less than 10 percent in only 15 states with 159 electoral votes. Less than one-third of voters lived in those states.

In 1976, all of the eight largest states were carried by less than 10 percent. In 2008, only two, Florida and Ohio, were.

Admittedly, 1976 was an extreme case. Both nominees were from regions -- south Georgia, outstate Michigan -- that were their parties' historic heartlands but where each party was in long-term decline. And 2008 was an extreme case in the other direction.

But while the list of target states has become shorter, it isn't etched in stone. It can change from election to election.

There's a tendency to ignore this because in recent history, from the middle 1990s to the middle of the past decade, voting behavior was unusually static. Only three states cast their electoral votes for different parties in the 2000 and 2004 elections.

But voters in different states and regions don't always move in tandem. The 2008 election was a good example. 2012 seems to be another.

Several analysts have noted that Barack Obama seems to be stronger in recent target state polling than one might extrapolate from national polls.

Some have argued that this is due to overly Democratic samples in some cases. Others have argued that it represents a response to ads attacking Mitt Romney's business record.

Each explanation is plausible. But I've noticed something else looking at the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls in states on various target lists and comparing Obama's current percentages in polls with his percentage of the actual vote in November 2008.

In three states, Obama currently is polling only 3 or 4 percent below his actual vote in 2008 -- North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Probably not coincidentally, these were three of the four states where his winning percentages were lowest (in the fourth, Indiana, he seems far behind this year).

In 2008, the Obama campaign was able to spot openings in previously safe Republican states and use its money advantage to carry them. It looks like the 2012 Obama campaign has been concentrating its money, as well as appearances by the president and cabinet members, in these three states with 62 electoral votes in the hope that they will be a firewall preventing Romney from reaching the 270-vote majority.

But it looks like the Obama forces won't be able to heavily outspend the Republicans from now on. And the risk is that if opinion moves against them by a few more points in these firewall states, it will also do so in other states that weren't necessarily on the target list in 2008 but are now.

These include the manufacturing states of Michigan and Indiana, with 27 electoral votes, where Obama's current poll numbers are nearly or more than 10 percent behind his 2008 showing, and Missouri, with 10 electoral votes, which he nearly carried in 2008 but which now looks out of reach.

They also include six states with 46 electoral votes that have very low percentages of black voters -- Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon and Wisconsin. Obama carried all of these handily, but his current polling is seven to nine points behind his 2008 percentage.

And they include Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, the one state that matched the national percentages for Obama and John McCain and where Obama's current polling lead is 47 percent to 44 percent.

All of these 10 states, with 96 electoral votes, cast more votes for Republicans than Democrats in 2010 House elections. That was true also in Pennsylvania and Nevada, which together have 26 electoral votes.

Poll numbers are imprecise and subject of course to change. My point is that the list of target states has changed and gotten larger -- and could change and grow even more.


TOPICS: Florida; North Carolina; Ohio; Campaign News
KEYWORDS: obama; polls; romney; ryan
At this stage of the game, if Team Obama thinks they can win North Carolina, they must all be smoking the primo dope that customs confiscates from the border.
1 posted on 08/12/2012 9:30:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well both sides are targeting those states.


2 posted on 08/12/2012 9:32:38 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The only state out of that group Obama could possibly win is Ohio.


3 posted on 08/12/2012 9:33:09 PM PDT by boycott (CAL)
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To: boycott

Virginia could be play. NOVA is growing fast and is more liberal than the rest of the state. I don’t think he will win but it is not outside of the realm of possibility. If Mitt does really poorly in debates or has gaffes I think Florida could possibly come into play though I doubt it.


4 posted on 08/12/2012 9:35:21 PM PDT by Woodsman27
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’d be shocked if Obama took North Carolina. He barely won it last time in an election that the Democrats did very well in. Romney would have to implode for Obama to have a prayer. NC almost always goes red. Last time was an exception.


5 posted on 08/12/2012 9:36:35 PM PDT by Woodsman27
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To: boycott

Is it true that Paul Ryan’s tie to Wisconsin could somehow affect Ohio too?


6 posted on 08/12/2012 9:39:33 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ryan needs to spend the next month barnstorming Ohio and Florida.


7 posted on 08/12/2012 9:40:35 PM PDT by PAR
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To: Woodsman27

Look down ticket in north carolina,its pretty bad for demorats from the governor on down.I’d be surprised if he won there.


8 posted on 08/12/2012 9:42:49 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I agree. Barry is already toast in North Carolina - headed to just oxidized carbon. I think the author's analysis is flawed in several manners. In NC, look at what happened with the marriage amendment, the sitting governor (Dim), and the previous state wide elections - not to mention the polls.
9 posted on 08/12/2012 9:45:27 PM PDT by 103198
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I agree. Barry is already toast in North Carolina - headed to just oxidized carbon. I think the author's analysis is flawed in several manners. In NC, look at what happened with the marriage amendment, the sitting governor (Dim), and the previous state wide elections - not to mention the polls.
10 posted on 08/12/2012 9:45:27 PM PDT by 103198
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yeah, I actually burst out laughing when I saw NC.


11 posted on 08/12/2012 9:46:45 PM PDT by Politicalmom (Liberalism. Ideas so great they have to be mandatory.-FReeper Osage Orange)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All
.. think the author/paper; is really "whistling pass the graveyard";
(for the once :)...a "warning shot across the bow" if you will.

12 posted on 08/12/2012 9:46:57 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (WA DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...Brazilian saying: "$@me Old $hit; w/ different flie$" :^)
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To: 103198
I think the author's analysis is flawed in several manners

I just tweeted it out to @GOP @KarlRove @marklevinshow @MittRomney @PaulRyanVP

Maybe I should delete it

13 posted on 08/12/2012 9:49:06 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama isn’t going to win any of those 3 States.


14 posted on 08/12/2012 9:51:24 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I sure am looking forward to Dick Morris’ “Sandals Lunch Alert” or whatever it’s called. Maybe he’ll talk about it tomorrow.


15 posted on 08/12/2012 9:51:34 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: tsowellfan
The Midwest tie will help, but the most important thing is religion. Changing the Catholic vote in Ohio, along with influence in MI, PA, and even VA is huge. His ability to address the people in a direct manner should be a strong second. Catholics voted for Barry in Ohio. With Ryan and Barry's attack on the Church, I don't see a repeat this time.
16 posted on 08/12/2012 9:53:47 PM PDT by 103198
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To: Woodsman27; boycott

WTOP POLL: Obama 48, Romney 46 in northern Va.!!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2916146/posts


17 posted on 08/12/2012 10:11:13 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: tsowellfan
It might be interesting to learn if they concur...

But then again, that's just NC. As the Freeper brain trust has pointed out, there are problems looking at the other Commonwealths/states in the piece. I don't know the FL stats/conditions, but I'm very familiar with VA and Ohio and I could rant about those too. The biggest problem in Ohio are the unions that defeated the previous ballot measure. However Ryan can break that with the religion tie and appeal directly to the members - just like President Reagan. Kasich and the other elected Republicans will be a huge factor when the campaign uses them and Romney is a perfect fit for the Ohio CC and Rhodes Republicans. SW portion of the state will go nuts for them and come out in mass. The energy theme will play nicely into what Ohioans are starting to see with hydro-fracking (providing Brown and his goons aren't able to coop it). But don't get me started...

18 posted on 08/12/2012 10:11:56 PM PDT by 103198
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To: 103198
“With Ryan and Barry's attack on the Church, I don't see a repeat this time.”

Ok, I'm going with that old cliche which is totally appropriate here. From YOUR lips to God's ears. I can never figure why any Catholic could vote for a dem / pro-abortion candidate.

19 posted on 08/12/2012 10:16:31 PM PDT by WaterWeWaitinFor (Very proud of the VP pick. We love him here in WI and so will you! Trust me on this.)
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To: 103198

Well, let’s hope this Christmas there will be 4 former Presidents having Christmas Dinner in Kennebunkport and not just 3.


20 posted on 08/12/2012 10:25:05 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Here in Ohio, I simultaneously got a letter from Michelle Obama and Mitt Romney, both asking for money of course. I simultaneously threw them both in the garbage.


21 posted on 08/12/2012 10:26:28 PM PDT by RC one (F.M.R.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The Dims are working VA hard, but the RPV/Republicans/campaign/PACs are working even harder. The Dims are running top down efforts and the other side is distributed but coordinated. It is fascinating to watch at this point. Look at Virginia's recent election history. 2008 - Obama/Biden, 2009 - McDonnell, Bolling, Cuccinelli R landslide and R gain in the House, 2010 - R Congressional win, 2011 - huge local R turnover wins and R Senate takeover and House increase. the Dims have had three poundings in a row and the Dim polls show Allen and Kaine tied. But there's more...
22 posted on 08/12/2012 10:27:50 PM PDT by 103198
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To: WaterWeWaitinFor
I can never figure why any Catholic could vote for a dem / pro-abortion candidate.

Someone very high up in the Catholic church in AZ (a republican) had discussed something with me.

He often wondered why so many Catholic nations in Europe would fall to dictatorships and Communism so easily. He suspected that maybe it was something about the Catholic culture (which is sort of like a government in itself) and the people were use to being told by the church what to do, how to do it...etc.

23 posted on 08/12/2012 10:29:46 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

LOL


24 posted on 08/12/2012 10:32:19 PM PDT by A. Morgan (Ayn Rand: "You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Thank you for this encouraging Post. The article said:

My point is that the list of target states has changed and gotten larger -- and could change and grow even more.
And, I would say that as the list of target states get larger, the Obama camp will be forced to spend money in states they didn't think they'd have to spend money in. That's good news for our team becuase their money box does not have as much in it as Romney and his Super Pacs have; no where near.
25 posted on 08/12/2012 10:37:10 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Thank you for this encouraging Post. The article said:

My point is that the list of target states has changed and gotten larger -- and could change and grow even more.
And, I would say that as the list of target states get larger, the Obama camp will be forced to spend money in states they didn't think they'd have to spend money in. That's good news for our team becuase their money box does not have as much in it as Romney and his Super Pacs have; no where near.
26 posted on 08/12/2012 10:37:10 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: WaterWeWaitinFor
Nor I, but some have been cooped in the lib agenda in the northern part of the state. That's where Dennis and Howard come/came from. Cleveland/Akron/etc. and the Churches have been subjected to decades of leftists union crap and some lib priests. Even on the non-Catholic side, denominations like the UCC (Barry's church) have been preaching progressive crap since the 60s (I believe still based in Cleveland). But I digress...

The Catholics and Diocese that have familiarity with in Ohio doesn't support the pro-abortion stance of the northern libs, which should be enough to make the difference in the election. We can pray that pro-abortion voting Catholics will see the light and correct the errors of their ways.

27 posted on 08/12/2012 10:46:57 PM PDT by 103198
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To: tsowellfan

I can’t wait for it to happen...

But there’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the next 86 (?) days in VA to make sure it is done.


28 posted on 08/12/2012 10:50:19 PM PDT by 103198
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To: 103198

The author is Michael Barone, who follows electoral politics practically precinct by precinct across the country, and has for decades. No one is better at this than Barone. Most of us have anecdotal evidence; Barone has empirical. I’d think twice about calling his analysis flawed.


29 posted on 08/12/2012 10:51:46 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: 103198

85 days 1 hour 53 minutes and 32 seconds


30 posted on 08/12/2012 10:53:52 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Voting for Obama/Biden is like purposely swallowing two tapeworms)
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To: EDINVA

I practice the art in VA and study NC and Ohio. I respectfully call it flawed.


31 posted on 08/12/2012 10:55:27 PM PDT by 103198
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To: EDINVA

And I do believe that Karl is better.


32 posted on 08/12/2012 10:58:28 PM PDT by 103198
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To: tsowellfan

Thanks for the proper time. I’m having a lack of sleep and time zone problem.


33 posted on 08/12/2012 11:01:37 PM PDT by 103198
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To: EDINVA

BTW, what are your thoughts?


34 posted on 08/12/2012 11:03:20 PM PDT by 103198
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To: fortheDeclaration

If not, he can’t possibly win.


35 posted on 08/12/2012 11:15:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Problem is in the most recent Real Clear Politics info Obama is still up by 2% in the state. He has a shot.


36 posted on 08/12/2012 11:23:50 PM PDT by Woodsman27
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To: Woodsman27

Most of those polls over-sample Democrats by 10-40%, only poll “registered” voters or mere adults, not likely voters, don’t take into account the leanings of the independents they poll and word the polls in such a way as to be beneficial to Mr. Obama. When you plow through all that, Gov. Romney is winning, big, in many swing states. And if Mr. Obama’s internal polls showed him winning in all the states RCP says he is, he wouldn’t be campaigning in those places.
They don’t have virtually unlimited money this time, against a poor sap with only 37 million dollars.


37 posted on 08/12/2012 11:31:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: boycott

I posted this in another thread. It seems that Paul Ryan graduated college with a B.A. from Miami University, here in OH. SO, that gives him some Buckeye cred. (From Wikipedia)

Paul Davis Ryan (born January 29, 1970) is the U.S. Representative for Wisconsin’s 1st congressional district, serving since 1999. On August 11, 2012, Ryan was chosen by Mitt Romney to be his vice presidential running mate,[1] becoming the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2012 election.[2][3] Born and raised in Janesville, Wisconsin, Ryan earned a B.A. degree from Miami University in Ohio. Following his studies, he worked as an aide to United States Senator Bob Kasten of Wisconsin, as legislative director for Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, and as a speechwriter for former U.S. Representative and 1996 Republican vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp of New York. In 1998, Ryan won election to the United States House of Representatives, succeeding the two-term incumbent, fellow Republican Mark Neumann. He is now in his seventh term.


38 posted on 08/12/2012 11:40:16 PM PDT by Catsrus
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama won VA 52-46 in 2008.

It’s looking like 2010 all over again. Come on November, just get here and let’s end this Obama freak show.


39 posted on 08/12/2012 11:42:16 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: Woodsman27

NC is going solid red. The Dems are toast with Bev Purdue and the gay marriage crap.


40 posted on 08/13/2012 2:38:58 AM PDT by DownInFlames
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To: tsowellfan

Paul Ryan went to Miami University here in Southwestern Ohio. The local media is really playing that up. His Catholic, pro-life position plays strong in Western Cincinnati which is predominantly Catholic, as well as in Toledo which is very Catholic as well.

Ryan will help Romney in Ohio. No doubt about that. Youngstown, Akron, Canton and certain parts of Cleveland are also heavily Catholic and everyone knows Obama has declared war on the Catholic church. Yard signs are around Ohio saying “Stand up for Religious Freedom”. They are all over the yards of Catholic churches. This is a big issue in large sectors of the state.


41 posted on 08/13/2012 6:20:40 AM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry (Re-electing Obama is like backing the Titanic up to hit the iceberg a second time.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m with you. If Romney has to defend NC, it’s all over and Obama is going to win big, but a loss in NC is VERY unlikely. To win, Romney and Ryan have to take OH, FL, VA, CO, and either Ohio or Wisconsin. I think they should campaign in NV, PA, NH, and Michigan too, just to see if they can get the traction to put one or two of those states in play.


42 posted on 08/13/2012 7:09:12 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Woodsman27
Virginia could be play. NOVA is growing fast and is more liberal than the rest of the state.

I was at the Manassas (Northern VA) rally Saturday. There were at least 10k people there. A couple of weeks ago my wife met a friend in Leesburg (Northern VA) to go shopping on the day that Zero happened to be having a rally there. She said she was worried about traffic and crowds, but there was no one there for Obama. Anecdotal I know, but encouraging nonetheless.

43 posted on 08/13/2012 7:22:35 AM PDT by KevinB (We'll stop treating Obama like a dog when he stops treating us like a fire hydrant - Fred Grandy)
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