Skip to comments.Aug. 20: When the Polling Gets Weird (Romney leading Obama by FIFTEEN POINTS in FLORIDA!!)
Posted on 08/20/2012 10:50:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Monday brought a Monmouth University poll showing President Obama ahead by one point in the national race the same margin that he had in the last poll they conducted in June. Mitt Romney held onto a 2-point lead in the Gallup national tracking poll, and pulled ahead of Mr. Obama again by one point in the Rasmussen national tracker, which has fluctuated a bit recently but usually has a steady number like that.
Oh, and there was an Oklahoma poll, which was conducted on behalf of the Tulsa World. Mr. Obama is surging there! He now trails Mr. Romney by only 29 points. (He was 35 points down in the prior rendition of the same survey.)
All of this polling was pretty normal, of course. But there was one last survey. It was from the polling firm Foster McCollum White Baydoun, which conducts polls for Democratic candidates as well as independently. It was a poll of Florida and it had Mr. Romney ahead by nearly 15 points there.
A general word about Florida: Im mostly on board with this post by Nate Cohn, which criticizes the idea that Paul D. Ryan could be especially damaging to Mr. Romneys chances there. (The theory Mr. Cohn is arguing against is that there will be some sort of revolt among seniors in Florida against Mr. Ryans Medicare plan.)
The basic flaw in the argument, as Mr. Cohn notes, is this: there are a lot of seniors who will vote in Florida. But there are also a lot of seniors who will vote in every state. Age is not one of those demographics that varies that widely in different parts of the country...
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
There is nothing weird about Romney leading n Florida. What is weird are the national polls that show the race to be close.
Northwest Florida and other parts of Florida have had a great deal of rain in the last week. This has forced people indoors and possibly the pollsters are getting a different sample of LV than when the weather is better for outdoors activities.
OF COURSE NY Times Obama Journo-lister Nate Silver thinks the methodology is flawed, It doesn’t jive with the MediaMatters-approved CURRENT TRUTH!
Of course, not a PEEP from this guy when NBC was throwing out polls with a +16 Dem Bias, showing Obama leading in Florida by +6. Nope, not a peep. In fact, he PIMPED that poll.
This is what passes for “Journalism” today, folks.
Seniors are flocking to R&R en masse. That’s the implication of this poll, even if it is somewhat of an outlier.
A couple months ago Obama’s national job approval ratings were around 46%, his personal approval ratings were around 56%. After two months of scorched earth attacks his job approval rating is down to 40%, but the big deal is his personal approval level is 37%. That’s huge! People now find Mitt more likable than Obama! People are finally seeing the nasty, vindictive side of BHO, and they don’t like it. Obama is no longer cool.
Last visit, she was worried about her Medicare. I told her don't worry whatever happens, we'll take care of it. She told me to make sure she had her absentee ballot, there was no way she was voting for Obama to rob her Medicare. This caused a little commotion in the lounge but they all agreed. Not that their votes will matter much here in NY, but Seniors take voting and Medicare seriously! Word gets around!
Now as we start to build hope for Florida, watch for PPP and NBC-Marist to attempt to tamp down enthusiasm by announcing “poll results” showing Obama leading in FL and other battlegrounds by double digits.
What poll has 0bama`s job approval rating down to 40%? The one Silver references here?
It’ll be 15 and more now that people realize Ryan’s mom is on Medicare at the Villages and dems are lying their arses off
Don't be surprised if this is a 45-State landslide. There's NO energy for Obama this time around. Conservatives are willing to give Romney a chance now that he has Ryan on the ticket. Obama's $100 million campaign attack on Romney has actually backfired. Romney has hundreds of millions stored up for after the convention. This could be a 65-30-5 ("5" going to Roseanne Barr) bloodbath for Democrats.
Twice. At least.
You're forgetting the Snowbirds will vote absentee in their home state, and their winter roosts in Florida. And they're overwhelmingly Leftist.
Remember also, the Kenyan has got:
the dead vote;
the illegal alien vote;
the negro vote;
the multiple-ballot college-brat vote;
the white-guilt vote;
the white-chick vote;
the yellow-dog Democrat vote;
Black Panthers guarding the polls;
Soros-paid Spaniards counting the votes.
People are finally seeing the nasty, vindictive side of BHO, and they dont like it. Obama is no longer cool.
Mr. Shuck & Jive, late night comedian wannabe , is finally being viewed for what he is.
A teleprompter reading, smoke and mirrors, cliche machine.
No substance behind Hope and Change, just half truths, and scare tactics.
The newsweek cover is very appropriate as this jokers act has run its course.
Ya been reading my post again laddie! Yes a blowout that will set the DNC back 20 years, I have been smelling it for months....