Skip to comments.From Our Pollster: Internals, Details of the Latest Polls (Many polls heavily weighted w/Dems)
Posted on 08/22/2012 8:47:08 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
- National RV (AP/GFK) Obama 47% Romney 46%. Poll sample D+8. June Obama 47% Romney 44%. Poll sample back then D+7
- National RV (Gallup) Romney 47% Obama 45%
- National LV (Rassmusan) Romney 46% Obama 44%
- Nevada LV (LVRJ/Survay USA) Obama 47% Romney 45%. Independents Romney 44% Obama 39%. Ryans budget play among Independents 49% approve 44% disapprove. Among Hispanics Obama 48% Romney 47%. It doesnt really make sense but ok. The Poll is a sample D+3.
- Wisconsin (Marquette university) among LV Obama 49% Romney 46%. among RV Obama 50 Romney 44%. Two weeks ago among LV Obama 50% Romney 45%; among RV Obama 50% Romney 43%. Difference between LV and RV in current poll is a 3 point gain for Romney. Does Ryan make you more or less interested to vote for Romney 29%; more 16%; less 53% no difference. Poll sample D+1. poll sample D+1
- New Mexico LV (Rassmusan) Obama 52% Romney 38%; April Obama 52% Romney 36%.
- Montana LV(Rassmusan) Romney 55% Obama 38%; June Romney 51% Obama 42%
- Massachusetts LV(PPP) Obama 55% Romney 39%. poll sample D+23; June same result but its was a RV poll and the sample D+26
- Vermont (Castleton state collage) Obama 62% Romney 25%
- Wisconsin senate LV (Marquette university) Thompson (R) 50% Baldwin (D) 41% 2 weeks ago (R) 47% (D) 43% poll sample same as presidential
- Wisconsin senate LV (PPP) Thompson (R) 49% Baldwin (D) 44%. month ago RV tie poll. Sample In both R+2
- Connecticut senate LV (Rassmusan) McMahon (R) 49% Murphy (D) 46%. First poll that showed the R ahead so we will have to wait and see if it stays. The R is very rich; spent $50M in a 2010 senate race.
Thanks for posting.
Linda McMahon has Billions
Doesn’t she pretty much own professional wrestling?
This over polling of Democrats vs. Republicans has a reason but is based on what determinants exactly, besides the obvious count of likely voters are largely Dems? Are there other more obscure factors, I wonder?
They are using turnout models from 2008 when dems were +7, in 2010 the pubs and dems were even.
This year IMO the turnout model will be even to R+2, Rasmussen has had the Generic ballot R+3 for awhile though the latest take was R +1,
When you factor in the enthusiasm gap...
The polls are trying to bump up barry the bozo.
Thank you, very much. That helps. A lot.