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Why Is Obama So Confident?
New York Magazine ^ | August 28, 2012 | Jonathan Chait

Posted on 08/28/2012 12:40:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Who’s winning the presidential race? There’s an odd disconnect between the polls and the body language of the candidates. John Harris and Alexander Burns report from Tampa, “Republicans believe Obama’s governing defects should make a GOP victory virtually inevitable, but Romney’s political defects make it only a long-shot possibility.” Likewise, Mark Halperin, after extensive discussion with Obama’s campaign team, remains convinced that the campaign is not bluffing about its belief that it remains ahead in the race and unlikely to lose barring an unforeseen external event.

Could they be spinning? Possibly, though the more self-interested spin for Obama would probably emphasize the closeness of the race (send money! volunteer!) rather than the unlikelihood of defeat. In any case, the actual behavior of both campaigns suggests agreement on this point. Obama is running the same game plan he embarked on last year. Romney has changed things up, junking his original game plan — portraying Obama as a good guy over his head and hoping to make the election a referendum on the economy — to instead emphasize hard-edged attacks on the president and use Paul Ryan to shake up the race. So, however much Romney blusters, his deeds suggest a decided lack of confidence.

The curious thing is that this take is not reflected in the national polls. A Washington Post poll of registered voters yesterday had Romney leading by a point; a CBS poll today shows Obama up by one. Note that registered voters traditionally skew their picture toward the Democrats by around a couple percentage points, since not all registered voters cast a ballot, and Republicans are usually more likely than Democrats to show up at the polls. That would suggest that Romney is actually up by a couple points.

So, what gives?

The best explanation I can muster is that the polls are assuming a much different, and more GOP-friendly, electorate than either party. ABC’s poll assumes that 78 percent of registered voters are white. That is … a whole lot of white people. The white share of the electorate has been dropping steadily for more than twenty years — from 87 percent in 1992 to 83 percent in 1996 to 81 percent in 2000, 77 percent in 2004, and 74 percent four years ago. Ron Brownstein’s recent reporting suggests that both campaigns expect an electorate that’s about 74 percent white. The same problem seems to appear in numerous other polls. Many of them don’t release their racial breakdowns, but those that do seem to imply electorates far whiter than the campaigns are banking on. As pollster Mark Blumenthal has exhaustively shown, Gallup has systematically underweighted the number of minorities in its polls, due to technical issues related to the difficulty of finding and weighting poll respondents.

Now, we don’t know what the racial composition of the electorate will look like. But it is utterly key. Assuming the 74 percent white makeup, and further assuming that Obama’s standing among nonwhite voters holds up as it has with high consistency, then Romney needs to win white voters by more than 20 points, perhaps by around 22 points, in order to prevail. Few polls show him doing that. The ABC poll has him winning whites by eighteen points.

Again, the racial composition of the electorate is a guess. It’s possible that nonwhite voters just won’t show up in the numbers either campaign seems to expect. But the best explanation I can come up with for the gap between the polls, on the one hand, and the apparent confidence of Obama’s camp (and the lack of confident in Romney’s revealed behavior) on the other, it’s that the polls are showing more white people than either campaign projects.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2012; blacks; democrats; gop; obama; polls; romney; whites
I think every white person and every other skin tone to the right of Rahm Emanuel will show up, en masse, to eject Mr. Obama from office. But what do I know? Heck, there are people here that have NO PROBLEM with another term for Dear Leader.
1 posted on 08/28/2012 12:40:22 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So polls that have been oversampling Dems by 9-19 are too Republican friendly? These people are delusional.


2 posted on 08/28/2012 12:44:31 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Does anybody outside of the New Yorker’s staff really believe Obama is confident?


3 posted on 08/28/2012 12:45:50 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Why Is Obama So Confident?

What is the author talking about?? How is obama acting confident? Constantly BEGGING for money, smaller crowds at rallies, desperate ads calling Romney a felon, murderer, etc. How is that confidant?

4 posted on 08/28/2012 12:45:50 PM PDT by BerniesFriend (Sarah Palin-"Lord knows she's attractive" says bitter Andrea Mitchell and the rest of the MSM)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why? Narcissism. Just like the other boy president.


5 posted on 08/28/2012 12:46:05 PM PDT by andyk (Go Juan Pablo!)
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To: Shadow44

They’re probably reading FR and actually think all the 3rd party supporters will produce a Clintonian plurality win for Baraq.


6 posted on 08/28/2012 12:48:36 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Calling Romney a felon, murderer.. Breaking protocol by campaigning during RNC.. Having to fundraise 24/7... Etc.

All these things do not project a confident campaign.


7 posted on 08/28/2012 12:48:56 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

As seen on FR in recent times, the non-Democrat voters are split into groups that have come to dislike each other. Disagreement has become personal attacks. Zero knows that Romney cannot hold this together. Sooner or later, his true beliefs will come out and contradict his current statements, undermining him with one or more of these groups - about like the Akin incident.


8 posted on 08/28/2012 12:49:18 PM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: Shadow44

Obama must live by “Fake it ‘til you make it”. Seems like he’s been faking for a long time.


9 posted on 08/28/2012 12:50:55 PM PDT by No Socialist
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is a liberal spinning the spinning of the spinning of the numbers.


10 posted on 08/28/2012 12:52:03 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obviously a liberal because he’s 180 degrees from reality.

Obama’s campaign is desperate ... you can smell the fear. Obama himself cannot imagine that The Won, Messiah to all would be turned out of office after only one term .... and he’s also thinking his black skin is a free pass on everything (and it has been/is with the media).

Romney’s pick of Ryan was bold, the sign of a leader .... and it’s proved to be a great pick.

I’m wondering if Mr. Chait has been spening too much time ‘not exhaling’ with “Mr. Choom” .... causes brain damage, you know.


11 posted on 08/28/2012 12:52:53 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Party votes is always around 90-10. Obama won by 7 when Independents went 52-44 for Obama last time. In that Washington Post poll just released, Romney lead independents 60-38 when undecideds weren’t included.

And that is all you need to know. Obama will need a 9-10 point Dem turnout edge to make this a toss-up. Not very likely considering he had +7 when he had the wind at his back in 2008. Karl Rove has been plotting the voter registration numbers and GOP is killing Dems since 2008.

Pending a colossal blunder/development, this race is already over.


12 posted on 08/28/2012 12:53:39 PM PDT by jb729
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Sometimes arrogance can be mistaken as confidence. That’s what is occurring here. Barry the Kenyan Guy thinks everyone on the planet loves and adores him. He sees himself as the new messiah.


13 posted on 08/28/2012 12:56:11 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Had enough of the freaks running the show yet?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why’s Obama so confident?

Because he’s won every race he’s run through character assassination, and an incredibly powerful “thugocracy” of corrupt political machine members, criminals, and a fawning and corrupt ministry of propaganda, AKA “the media.”

He hasn’t even begun to “campaign” yet.

Mark


14 posted on 08/28/2012 12:57:43 PM PDT by MarkL (Do I really look like a guy with a plan?)
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Blissfully ignorant...

15 posted on 08/28/2012 12:57:56 PM PDT by evets (beer)
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To: jb729

According to many of the professional pollsters on the idiot box, indies and undecided always break for the challenger in huge proportions, like 70/30.


16 posted on 08/28/2012 12:59:52 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’d feel confident too, if I had the rebranded Acorn organization and MSM in my back pocket.

We have to beat them by the margin of vote theft.... and that ain’t +1.


17 posted on 08/28/2012 12:59:56 PM PDT by Basement Dweller
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Mediocre performance has never seemed to be a hindrance to his rise to academic success nor power in the past. He’s surrounded by a coterie of sycophants, and let’s not kid ourselves...he could win.


18 posted on 08/28/2012 1:00:54 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (This stuff we're going through now, this is nothing compared to the middle ages.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Mediocre performance has never seemed to be a hindrance to his rise to academic success nor power in the past. He’s surrounded by a coterie of sycophants, and let’s not kid ourselves...he could win.


19 posted on 08/28/2012 1:01:02 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (This stuff we're going through now, this is nothing compared to the middle ages.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

and that reason must be on the mind of EVERYONE !!!!!!!!!!

Semper Wondering!
*****


20 posted on 08/28/2012 1:06:12 PM PDT by gunnyg ("A Constitution changed from Freedom, can never be restored; Liberty, once lost, is lost forever...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If the electorate makeup really is only 74% white this time, then the Dem turnout will indeed be +7 or +9 on election day.

That means the worst President in the history of our country will enjoy a second term, and dozens of “pure conservatives” on here will be able to smugly say “I told you so”.


21 posted on 08/28/2012 1:06:59 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The polls are nothing but a joke when Soros’ spanish company is counting the votes.


22 posted on 08/28/2012 1:09:03 PM PDT by bgill
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama is a narcissus among his other failings. That could explain it, along with the expected thefts attempted by unions.


23 posted on 08/28/2012 1:11:40 PM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Why Is Obama So Confident?”

Because he is completely out of touch with reality.


24 posted on 08/28/2012 1:13:53 PM PDT by spel_grammer_an_punct_polise (I wanna start a Seniors' Motor Scooter Gang. Wanna join?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So, the author makes up Romney operating without confidence as proof he is not winning. Good grief. These people are delusional.


25 posted on 08/28/2012 1:14:45 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: WashingtonSource

I’m a New Yorker and I let my subscription to New York magazine expire a few years ago. Even the New York Times is not as biased as New York magazine.


26 posted on 08/28/2012 1:18:05 PM PDT by utahagen
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Bored reporter needs to still earn a paycheck apparently.


27 posted on 08/28/2012 1:18:31 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: WashingtonSource

“This is a liberal spinning the spinning of the spinning of the numbers.”

Classic! Is it OK if I remember that one and use it?


28 posted on 08/28/2012 1:20:29 PM PDT by spel_grammer_an_punct_polise (I wanna start a Seniors' Motor Scooter Gang. Wanna join?)
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To: comebacknewt

“If the electorate makeup really is only 74% white this time, then the Dem turnout will indeed be +7 or +9 on election day.

That means the worst President in the history of our country will enjoy a second term, and dozens of “pure conservatives” on here will be able to smugly say “I told you so”.”

And I’m sure 88% of the vote will be fraud and unions will be busing members in every state to every other state too?

I swear people on FR love to either lose elections or have some fetish about imaginary invincible political machines at the DNC.


29 posted on 08/28/2012 1:23:07 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Why? Because he knows where, how and by whom the votes will be counted and he knows that there will be “just enough” for the win. After than, nothing will matter.


30 posted on 08/28/2012 1:25:38 PM PDT by GBA
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder
let’s not kid ourselves...he could win.

Particularly in light of the fact that nearly half of U.S. households receive federal benefits.

31 posted on 08/28/2012 1:25:57 PM PDT by BlatherNaut
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This election will not even be remotely close. Romney will win by more than 7%.


32 posted on 08/28/2012 1:28:36 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Let’s see: Magically found votes in basements closets and cars, dead voters voting, illegals voting, bought votes, etc etc.


33 posted on 08/28/2012 1:33:14 PM PDT by Darksheare (Try my coffee, first one's free.....)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obama is confident because like all extreme narcissists he cannot convenience of the people rejecting his “brilliance”.
34 posted on 08/28/2012 1:41:10 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: VanDeKoik

My concern is more demographics than it is fraud.


35 posted on 08/28/2012 1:45:12 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I'll tell you why Obama is so confident.

Because of how I saw Mitt Romney shit all over conservatives today, shutting them out of the primary process, that I GUAREN-DAMN-TEE you that if Romney DOES get elected, he will IMMEDIATELY appoint Obama to some Cabinet position.

36 posted on 08/28/2012 1:47:57 PM PDT by Lazamataz (Communist Party = Democrats. Socialist Party = Republicans. WE NEED A CAPITALIST FREEDOM PARTY!)
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To: Lazamataz

Do you think Governor Mitt Romney hates this country? Mr. Barack Obama does! Do you think Mitt Romney detests capitalism, the same capitalism that earned him $300 Million or more? Barack Obama does! Do you believe that Mitt Romney would stop Israel from defending itself or stand aside while Israel is destroyed? Barack Hussein Obama would! Do you think that Mitt Romney would raise taxes and impose more red tape and restrictions on job creators, thus stalling the economy? Barack Obama already has. Do you feel that Mitt Romney wants to destroy the oil, coal and gas industries in the USA, thus putting us in the thrall of Islamic potentates who wish us to become Muslims? Barack Hussein Obama is well on the way to doing so. I could go on for hours. I’ve never had any love for Governor Romney, but when the choice comes down to either him or Barack Hussein Obama, a man dead-set on destroying my country, the country of my birth and whose uniform I proudly wore, there is no contest. And that is the choice. No third party or write-in candidate is going to be sworn in next January. As a disabled veteran, I humbly request that you prayerfully consider your position vis a vis the coming election and do what reason and faith tells you is the right thing for the United States of America. Thank you.


37 posted on 08/28/2012 1:56:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It seems to me anyone with half a brain can look at the Job Approval numbers and see Obama can’t be confident of winning.


38 posted on 08/28/2012 2:02:49 PM PDT by TomEwall
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I guess I am an angry white racist and bigot because I can’t stand Obama, Reid, and Pelosi.


39 posted on 08/28/2012 2:07:10 PM PDT by MIchaelTArchangel
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

So, basically, public polls are too Republican friendly and Obama’s camp is projecting an entirely different turnout model.


40 posted on 08/28/2012 2:09:41 PM PDT by goodolemr
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Because at the White House Press dinner right after he was Pres., he said "you all voted for me", and he knows they will all vote for him again and sway the sheeple....again.

Hey Republican Operatives.....get that tape and show it on a commercial.

41 posted on 08/28/2012 2:20:25 PM PDT by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It is called delusion and all egomanics have it right to the end.


42 posted on 08/28/2012 3:19:49 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Lazamataz
Because of how I saw Mitt Romney shit all over conservatives today, shutting them out of the primary process, that I GUAREN-DAMN-TEE you that if Romney DOES get elected, he will IMMEDIATELY appoint Obama to some Cabinet position.

How about US Supreme Court: I mean he's a lawyer after all -- besides, what better way to protect all the people that ignored constitutional qualification requirements than to put him on the court that determines constitutionality?

43 posted on 08/28/2012 3:52:54 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: BlatherNaut

It’s just incredible to me that 0bama could be re-elected. Who could want four more years of what is going on in this country? But he could, whether it’s incredible to me or not.


44 posted on 08/28/2012 4:25:19 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (This stuff we're going through now, this is nothing compared to the middle ages.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If the voting’s fixed, the fix is in.


45 posted on 08/28/2012 11:13:13 PM PDT by Seeing More Clearly Now
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To: spel_grammer_an_punct_polise

Yes. Use it as often as you wish.


46 posted on 08/29/2012 5:52:12 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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