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Patton: And It's Romney-Ryan in a Landslide
GOPUSA ^ | August 30, 2012 | Doug Patton

Posted on 09/04/2012 8:02:08 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

This week, I'm going out on a limb by publicly stating an opinion I have been expressing privately for some time: I believe Mitt Romney will defeat Barack Obama in a near landslide comparable to Ronald Reagan's win over Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Many of my friends and family, while hoping I'm right, actually think I'm crazy. My wife fears that there is now a disproportionate number of people in America who have gotten used to the idea of having things handed to them by government, rather than cherishing the opportunity to work for those things themselves.

After the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare this summer, my brother, who lives in the battleground state of Missouri, announced with resignation that, "Obama has just been re-elected." He reaffirmed that belief recently, during the Todd Akin flap in Missouri's U.S. Senate race, by once again declaring his state all but lost for Republicans, including Mitt Romney.

A close friend, with whom I have worked on numerous campaigns and who now works for a conservative lobbying organization, has a tendency to fret about all things political. He has been a basket case over the possibility of Obama, part two.

I point out to him that no president from either party since FDR's second campaign in 1936 has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate even approaching the numbers we are seeing today. I tell him that any incumbent president who cannot get his poll numbers above 50 percent cannot and will not win.

Sometimes my friend's anxiety is temporarily assuaged, but there is no doubt in my mind that he will sleep much better after he has seen my prediction come true on November 6th. (Won't we all?)

Now comes a scientific study of presidential elections, from a pair of faculty members at the University of Colorado, which reinforces the political gut feeling that has been driving my prophecies to a large degree. The long-term model used for this study is the brainchild of Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, working at CU's Boulder and Denver campuses, respectively. Their prototype, Bickers and Berry stress, analyzes economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures, as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

Since 1980, their model has accurately predicted every presidential election. Their analysis was accurate even in those years when there was a strong third party candidate running (John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996). Perhaps most impressive, their model worked in predicting that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000 while losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.

So what does the model forecast for 2012? They predict that Mitt Romney will soundly defeat Barack Obama by winning 32 states, 53 percent of the popular vote and a whopping 320 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).

"The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears," Professor Berry notes, "when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."

Berry and Bickers are predicting that Romney will defeat Obama in almost every battleground state, as well as a few the GOP hasn't won in decades. These include North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and, yes, the "show me" state of Missouri.

Bickers notes that their election prediction model suggests that "presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy. It's not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.

"Based on our forecasting model," Professor Bickers adds, "it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble."

As my little sister, who lives in the battleground state of Iowa, would say, "From his lips to God's ears!"


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: obama; polls; riggedpolls; romney; ryan

1 posted on 09/04/2012 8:02:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
October surprise:

major terrorist act, marshal law, cancellation of election, 2nd civil war.

2 posted on 09/04/2012 8:05:27 PM PDT by exnavy (The time is upon us, fish or cut bait, may God guide your heart.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Since 1980, their model has accurately predicted every presidential election. Their analysis was accurate even in those years when there was a strong third party candidate running (John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996). Perhaps most impressive, their model worked in predicting that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000 while losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.

OK, I'm impressed, but this knot is still gonna be in my stomach for the next ten weeks ...

3 posted on 09/04/2012 8:07:10 PM PDT by 11th_VA (Keep your laws OFF my Big Gulp !)
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To: exnavy

Now more than ever, canned goods, bottled water, ammo, and most of all, prayers.


4 posted on 09/04/2012 8:07:19 PM PDT by exnavy (The time is upon us, fish or cut bait, may God guide your heart.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It will have to be a landslide. If the election is close, it goes to Obama by virtue of voter fraud, recount challenges, armies of lawyers, dead people voting, and results overturned due to enforced picture IDs.


5 posted on 09/04/2012 8:07:26 PM PDT by newheart (At what point does policy become treason?)
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To: exnavy

I don’t completely agree with that suspension of elections prediction. Yet, there is something i cannot forget. Obama is nothing less than a communist revolutionary (self described circa 1980) who was placed into office, after a decades long effort by the Chicago communist party USA cell.

I don’t see Obama as a normal president. He meant it when he said he was going to bring “fundamental change” to America. It’s hard to imagine that after the decades long plot, and a successful coup, that they would respect an election and just go away.
Obama is very dangerous, and it’s a guarantee they have some plan for holding onto power.


6 posted on 09/04/2012 8:15:05 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: exnavy

You think any of those would help Obama’s re-election?


7 posted on 09/04/2012 8:16:43 PM PDT by The KG9 Kid (Semper Fi)
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To: exnavy
I just realized our local channels, at least ABC and CBS, are covering the convention LIVE. Last week, CBS had NCIS on, and ABC had something on, but NOT the RNC Convention.

And I'm in Southern Oregon--the "red" part!

Now I'm wondering, where else did this happened?

What a sneaky way to favor the DNC by showing their Convention in prime time, but not the RNC.

So disgusting and infuriating!

8 posted on 09/04/2012 8:17:22 PM PDT by milagro (There is no peace in appeasement.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I wish I could share your confidence. 2008 really shook my faith in the American electorate. I hope enough of the Koolaid drinkers have woken up.


9 posted on 09/04/2012 8:17:43 PM PDT by Unam Sanctam
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To: The KG9 Kid
"re-election"? if the left did that, what re-election?

That would be called "anarchy"

10 posted on 09/04/2012 8:22:47 PM PDT by exnavy (The time is upon us, fish or cut bait, may God guide your heart.)
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To: milagro
OK--just turned to the same channels I was ranting about--and they are back to regular programming. Soooo--I may have ranted for no good reason, but I sure didn't see ANY RNC coverage last week on those two local channels, the few times I went to them to see what the commentators were saying.

Guess I'll just stick with FOX (can't get C-SPAN!).

11 posted on 09/04/2012 8:23:57 PM PDT by milagro (There is no peace in appeasement.)
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To: exnavy

Romney must keep his mouth shut and get rid of Rove and Sanunu or he will lose.


12 posted on 09/04/2012 8:26:09 PM PDT by marygonzo
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To: exnavy

My personal prediction is not martial law, and suspension of elections. That is too impossible to pull off with an armed populace, and the government simply could never prevail in open warfare.

Here’s my prediction. If he loses in anything other than an unquestioned landside, he will file several lawsuits. (only filing in Florida was seen as poor tactics, because it fixed the battle in one location. They want a confusing battle on many states).
His supporters will immediately take to the streets in a USA version of the general strike “color revolutions” we have seen elsewhere. Corrazon Aquino supporters in the Phillippines did it, it worked in the Orange revolution in Ukraine, the Rose revolution in Georgia, etc. Our white house coordinated such an effort in Guatemala last year.
This is a tactic they export. Arab spring ring a bell?

OWS was their dress rehearsal. Only imagine not just a few thousand, but millions in a general strike. Obama will magnanamously remain above the fray. He will appeal for calm, and say that the people in the streets have a right to protest. He will say we must let the legal system work. He will make absolutely no move against the protesters.
As this process plays out, he will seek the support of foreign leaders and financiers.

I believe that is his plan, and it is much more frightening and possibly successful than just declaring martial law.


13 posted on 09/04/2012 8:29:33 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: 11th_VA

Until Obama is sent to Kenya w his brother I am doubtful.


14 posted on 09/04/2012 8:30:17 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
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To: exnavy

“Now more than ever, canned goods, bottled water, ammo, and most of all, prayers.”

Navy, if either one of us is right, thats some sage advice. Everyone needs to be ready for a disruption of weeks and months.


15 posted on 09/04/2012 8:31:21 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: DesertRhino; exnavy; 2ndDivisionVet

We can’t afford to have an election that close.


16 posted on 09/04/2012 8:32:38 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obumster won’t go easy, but he’ll go, after multiple exec orders, appointments and clemencies.


17 posted on 09/04/2012 8:32:56 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: milagro

You have good reason to rant. 95% of the media are in the tank for the MARXISTS.


18 posted on 09/04/2012 8:34:17 PM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: DesertRhino

I doubt he will go quickly or quietly.


19 posted on 09/04/2012 8:34:22 PM PDT by exnavy (The time is upon us, fish or cut bait, may God guide your heart.)
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To: milagro

Rant away! I noticed the same thing this evening. Last week the RNC was only on a few of my upper channels. Tonight, there must’ve been 15 different channels carrying the DNC.

Fine with me. Maybe it will make some brain-dead viewers mad at the DNC for interrupting their entertainment! :-)


20 posted on 09/04/2012 8:36:59 PM PDT by nodumbblonde ("I'm all for helping the helpless, but I don't give a rat's a** about the clueless." - Dennis Miller)
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To: thecodont

You got that right. A landslide is our best protection against any attempt to hold onto power. He needs to be so soundly beaten that it is impossible to pull anything like that off.
It cannot be done with force, he needs to create the facade that the election was fraudulent and that he should be the true winner.


21 posted on 09/04/2012 8:38:34 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: milagro

“What a sneaky way to favor the DNC by showing their Convention in prime time, but not the RNC.

So disgusting and infuriating!”

The SRM are our blood enemies! God help me, but I really hate their guts! IMO not enough bad things can happen to those people! It infuriates me to no end that these biased, hyper-liberal, elitist, phony a-holes will once again be moderating the upcoming Obama butt-kissing, dog and pony show debates. They try to, and do, damage our candidates every day. Yet, the RNC and R&R agree to let them set the agenda and frame the debates. I don’t care what kind of supposedly impartial (HA!) League of Woman Voters commission selects these moderators, it is freaking obviously stupid and makes me crazy! Romney should tell them he’s not showing up! Screw them!! I am so sick of all this crap!!!!


22 posted on 09/04/2012 8:43:23 PM PDT by Batman11 (We came for the chicken sandwiches and a Sweet Tea Party broke out!)
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To: milagro
OK--just turned to the same channels I was ranting about--and they are back to regular programming. Soooo--I may have ranted for no good reason, but I sure didn't see ANY RNC coverage last week on those two local channels, the few times I went to them to see what the commentators were saying.

Guess I'll just stick with FOX (can't get C-SPAN!).

23 posted on 09/04/2012 8:54:36 PM PDT by milagro (There is no peace in appeasement.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I believe Mitt Romney will defeat Barack Obama in a near landslide comparable to Ronald Reagan's win over Jimmy Carter in 1980.

I've been thinking the same thing. There is just no excitement for Obama this time, and there is much anger against him.

24 posted on 09/04/2012 9:04:19 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: DesertRhino
A landslide is our best protection against any attempt to hold onto power. He needs to be so soundly beaten...

Amen!

25 posted on 09/04/2012 9:08:41 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: 11th_VA

It’ll be a nail biter for sure. Just once I’d like to feel some certainty in a Republican win. It’s been six cycles of failure or uncertainty. Enough!


26 posted on 09/04/2012 9:31:41 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Election night is 62 days away.)
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To: DesertRhino
Obama is very dangerous, and it’s a guarantee they have some plan for holding onto power.

Filling Cabinet-level departments with Leftist radicals that his successor does not dare fire en masse should be adequate to limit the downside of not holding the top office for a while.

27 posted on 09/04/2012 9:41:58 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: Mr. Jeeves

True. Good point.


28 posted on 09/04/2012 9:44:54 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: exnavy
...marshal martial law...
29 posted on 09/04/2012 11:25:08 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The American People will have the last word on this. If anything, this does not help. It is in the spirit of Sun Tzu, almost as if the enemy wrote it. Feigning our victory (to sit on our laurels), all the while receiving a Truman-like whooping at their hands later, them laughing in our faces for weeks on end. Then the REAL Marxism will begin and perhaps civil war.

Nope. Our polls should CONTINUOUSLY read 10 POINTS BEHIND FOR G.O.P. and then in our day to day behavior we have to BELIEVE THAT HORRID SCENARIO and we have to run scared and like we are going to get whooped. In that sense then, we deliver an Electoral College whooping to the other camp, so heavily so there is no doubt what the American People want. I think this "Landslide against Obama" kind of talk is highly presumptious and way out of whack with realities.

30 posted on 09/04/2012 11:33:19 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (Donate, & walk precincts, not for "Parties", but for individual, principled "Candidates" (& for FR)
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To: Unam Sanctam

“I wish I could share your confidence. 2008 really shook my faith in the American electorate. I hope enough of the Koolaid drinkers have woken up.”

It is heartening to see the election night 1980 posts on YouTube-an election that the MSM considered “too close to call” that morning-and see the Ancient Ones (Kronkite, et al) stunned and unable to comprehend how such a loss was even possible. However, this electorate is not the electorate of 1980...much smaller percentage of food stamp recipients then, for starters.


31 posted on 09/05/2012 12:10:03 AM PDT by The Antiyuppie ("When small men cast long shadows, then it is very late in the day.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Reasons why BHO will win ...

1. Incumbent

2. Still has the $$$ for the final stretch. How can George Clooney host a fund-raiser in Austria/Switzerland?

3. MSM is still totally in his pocket.

4. BHO only has to focus on the “battleground/swing” states = NV, CO, IA, WI, MO, OH, NH, VA, NC, and FL.

5. The zombie apocalypse will arise to vote as never before courtesy of a resurgent ACORN which has not stopped its illegal voter registration activities - only changed its name. Good folks in NC just this last week uncovered 30,000 deceased voters still on the rolls.

6. Eric Holder’s DoJ is rapidly putting the kybosh on those red states which passed picture-voter ID laws.

7. Some state election commissions controlled by the Dems will attempt to make it harder to get ballots to overseas military in time.

8. George Soros owns the Spanish company that wrote the software that will count the votes in those states which contract with this service - wonder how many states and which contracted with this service?

9. BHO and the Dems have "lawyered up" in anticipation of challenging the vote in those states in which they expect the vote to be very close. Of course, journalists reported Romney has done the same thing. If the vote is close, the aftermath of the 2000 election, BushII v. Gore, will look like child's play compared to the 2012 aftermath.

10. One of George Soros' strategies for BHO's re-election was to get a number of states (the battleground/swing states?) to elect Democrat candidates to the position of Secretary of State, i.e., the person in state government responsible for conducting/monitoring/counting elections. I read 1 story where this strategy was not fulfilled.

11. October surprize? - choose your own flavor(s)

12. How many conservatives will not vote for Mitt Romney? They will either (1) stay home, (2) skip the POTUS block, or (3) vote 3rd party. 3rd party candidacies may well hurt Romney this go around like they did GHWB in '92 and AlGore in 2000.

13. Not convinced that Gen Y and Gen Z, i.e., the 18-30 voting block will not (1) turn out to vote and (2) vote for BHO. The young white people in this block have been saturated with the indoctrination of diversity/multi-culturalism by educators. Most of them have been led to believe that the white Republican party is the fountainhead of all evil in the U.S. “If you're not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you're not a conservative at forty you have no brain.” - Sir Winston Churchill

14. Laura Ingraham, who subs for Bill O'Reilly on his show, "The O'Reilly Factor" exposed us to the legal gambling/odds maker website, Intrade.

She cited it back during the 2012 GOP primary. It accurately predicted Romney would win the GOP nomination. Right now it projects that BHO has a 58.4% chance of being re-elected.

15. Unlike disaffected Republicans who will not vote for Romney, the uber-left, disaffected Dems will turn out and vote for BHO.

32 posted on 09/05/2012 2:08:08 AM PDT by MacNaughton
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To: exnavy

Yikes!


33 posted on 09/05/2012 6:48:54 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: milagro

I just realized our local channels, at least ABC and CBS, are covering the convention LIVE. Last week, CBS had NCIS on, and ABC had something on, but NOT the RNC Convention.

It had to be your local station only because they only had one hour for the RNC and DNC.


34 posted on 09/05/2012 9:56:44 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: milagro

Oops...skip my reply. Luv ya FRiend.


35 posted on 09/05/2012 9:57:36 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: MacNaughton

You forgot though. We are in control of the electronic voting booths which is why we won the election in 2000 according to most libs. According to them we cheat but differently. lol


36 posted on 09/05/2012 10:02:41 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Paul Ryan/Rick Santorum 2012....That would be the best scenario ever.)
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To: MacNaughton

Sorry, not enough tinfoil to believe that scenario.


37 posted on 09/05/2012 11:08:41 AM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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