Skip to comments.Patton: And It's Romney-Ryan in a Landslide
Posted on 09/04/2012 8:02:08 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
This week, I'm going out on a limb by publicly stating an opinion I have been expressing privately for some time: I believe Mitt Romney will defeat Barack Obama in a near landslide comparable to Ronald Reagan's win over Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Many of my friends and family, while hoping I'm right, actually think I'm crazy. My wife fears that there is now a disproportionate number of people in America who have gotten used to the idea of having things handed to them by government, rather than cherishing the opportunity to work for those things themselves.
After the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare this summer, my brother, who lives in the battleground state of Missouri, announced with resignation that, "Obama has just been re-elected." He reaffirmed that belief recently, during the Todd Akin flap in Missouri's U.S. Senate race, by once again declaring his state all but lost for Republicans, including Mitt Romney.
A close friend, with whom I have worked on numerous campaigns and who now works for a conservative lobbying organization, has a tendency to fret about all things political. He has been a basket case over the possibility of Obama, part two.
I point out to him that no president from either party since FDR's second campaign in 1936 has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate even approaching the numbers we are seeing today. I tell him that any incumbent president who cannot get his poll numbers above 50 percent cannot and will not win.
Sometimes my friend's anxiety is temporarily assuaged, but there is no doubt in my mind that he will sleep much better after he has seen my prediction come true on November 6th. (Won't we all?)
Now comes a scientific study of presidential elections, from a pair of faculty members at the University of Colorado, which reinforces the political gut feeling that has been driving my prophecies to a large degree. The long-term model used for this study is the brainchild of Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, working at CU's Boulder and Denver campuses, respectively. Their prototype, Bickers and Berry stress, analyzes economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures, as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
Since 1980, their model has accurately predicted every presidential election. Their analysis was accurate even in those years when there was a strong third party candidate running (John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996). Perhaps most impressive, their model worked in predicting that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000 while losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.
So what does the model forecast for 2012? They predict that Mitt Romney will soundly defeat Barack Obama by winning 32 states, 53 percent of the popular vote and a whopping 320 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).
"The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears," Professor Berry notes, "when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."
Berry and Bickers are predicting that Romney will defeat Obama in almost every battleground state, as well as a few the GOP hasn't won in decades. These include North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and, yes, the "show me" state of Missouri.
Bickers notes that their election prediction model suggests that "presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy. It's not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.
"Based on our forecasting model," Professor Bickers adds, "it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble."
As my little sister, who lives in the battleground state of Iowa, would say, "From his lips to God's ears!"
major terrorist act, marshal law, cancellation of election, 2nd civil war.
OK, I'm impressed, but this knot is still gonna be in my stomach for the next ten weeks ...
Now more than ever, canned goods, bottled water, ammo, and most of all, prayers.
It will have to be a landslide. If the election is close, it goes to Obama by virtue of voter fraud, recount challenges, armies of lawyers, dead people voting, and results overturned due to enforced picture IDs.
I don’t completely agree with that suspension of elections prediction. Yet, there is something i cannot forget. Obama is nothing less than a communist revolutionary (self described circa 1980) who was placed into office, after a decades long effort by the Chicago communist party USA cell.
I don’t see Obama as a normal president. He meant it when he said he was going to bring “fundamental change” to America. It’s hard to imagine that after the decades long plot, and a successful coup, that they would respect an election and just go away.
Obama is very dangerous, and it’s a guarantee they have some plan for holding onto power.
You think any of those would help Obama’s re-election?
And I'm in Southern Oregon--the "red" part!
Now I'm wondering, where else did this happened?
What a sneaky way to favor the DNC by showing their Convention in prime time, but not the RNC.
So disgusting and infuriating!
I wish I could share your confidence. 2008 really shook my faith in the American electorate. I hope enough of the Koolaid drinkers have woken up.
That would be called "anarchy"
Guess I'll just stick with FOX (can't get C-SPAN!).
Romney must keep his mouth shut and get rid of Rove and Sanunu or he will lose.
My personal prediction is not martial law, and suspension of elections. That is too impossible to pull off with an armed populace, and the government simply could never prevail in open warfare.
Here’s my prediction. If he loses in anything other than an unquestioned landside, he will file several lawsuits. (only filing in Florida was seen as poor tactics, because it fixed the battle in one location. They want a confusing battle on many states).
His supporters will immediately take to the streets in a USA version of the general strike “color revolutions” we have seen elsewhere. Corrazon Aquino supporters in the Phillippines did it, it worked in the Orange revolution in Ukraine, the Rose revolution in Georgia, etc. Our white house coordinated such an effort in Guatemala last year.
This is a tactic they export. Arab spring ring a bell?
OWS was their dress rehearsal. Only imagine not just a few thousand, but millions in a general strike. Obama will magnanamously remain above the fray. He will appeal for calm, and say that the people in the streets have a right to protest. He will say we must let the legal system work. He will make absolutely no move against the protesters.
As this process plays out, he will seek the support of foreign leaders and financiers.
I believe that is his plan, and it is much more frightening and possibly successful than just declaring martial law.
Until Obama is sent to Kenya w his brother I am doubtful.
“Now more than ever, canned goods, bottled water, ammo, and most of all, prayers.”
Navy, if either one of us is right, thats some sage advice. Everyone needs to be ready for a disruption of weeks and months.
We can’t afford to have an election that close.
Obumster won’t go easy, but he’ll go, after multiple exec orders, appointments and clemencies.
You have good reason to rant. 95% of the media are in the tank for the MARXISTS.
I doubt he will go quickly or quietly.
Rant away! I noticed the same thing this evening. Last week the RNC was only on a few of my upper channels. Tonight, there must’ve been 15 different channels carrying the DNC.
Fine with me. Maybe it will make some brain-dead viewers mad at the DNC for interrupting their entertainment! :-)
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