[meadsjn]

The Polls are using the 2008 results as the sample.
He is only 50% of women
Getting killed by independents
How can it even be close

I agree. Obama had Independents by 8 points in 2008, and recent polls have him losing Independents by 10 points. Rasmussen polling this past weekend showed voters self-identified as Republican over Democrats by 4 or 5 points, while most polling samples still favor the Democrats by 10 or 15 points.

HillBuzz reports the Obamas are homeshopping in Hawaii for a 2013 move.

I see a blowout coming -- 59% to 39% -- not quite a record, but devastating enough to dismantle the Dem machine up and down the tickets.

2008		Group	Obama	McCain
All Voters		Pct.	53%	45%
PARTY	Democrat	39	89	10
Republican		32	9	93
Independent		29	52	44

[dvwjr]

Originally posted by: meadsjn

"I see a blowout coming -- 59% to 39% -- not quite a record, but devastating enough to dismantle the Dem machine up and down the tickets."

Fairly optimistic. Even Reagan's second election (1984) never made your 59% popular vote victory hurdle; only Harding (1920), Nixon (1972), Roosevelt (1936), and Johnson (1964) exceeded said mark...

Presidential election results listed by Popular vote (for elections with Popular vote) sorted in decending order:

"Popular" Vote				Winning Percentage
Victory Margin	Year	Party	Winner	Electoral Vote	"Popular" Vote
22.58%	1964	Democrat	Johnson(36)	90.33%	61.05%
24.25%	1936	Democrat	Roosevelt(32)	98.49%	60.80%
23.15%	1972	Republican	Nixon	96.65%	60.67%
26.17%	1920	Republican	Harding	76.08%	60.32%
18.21%	1984	Republican	Reagan	97.58%	58.77%
17.41%	1928	Republican	Hoover	83.62%	58.21%
17.76%	1932	Democrat	Roosevelt(32)	88.89%	57.41%
15.40%	1956	Republican	Eisenhower	86.06%	57.37%
18.83%	1904	Republican	Roosevelt(26)	70.59%	56.42%
12.34%	1828	Democrat	Jackson	68.20%	55.97%
11.80%	1872	Republican	Grant	78.10%	55.63%
10.85%	1952	Republican	Eisenhower	83.24%	55.18%
10.06%	1864	Republican	Lincoln	90.60%	55.02%
9.96%	1940	Democrat	Roosevelt(32)	84.56%	54.74%
16.81%	1832	Democrat	Jackson	76.00%	54.23%
25.22%	1924	Republican	Coolidge	71.94%	54.04%
7.50%	1944	Democrat	Roosevelt(32)	81.36%	53.39%
7.72%	1988	Republican	Bush(41)	79.18%	53.37%
6.07%	1840	Whig	Harrison(9)	79.60%	52.88%
7.27%	2008	Democrat	Obama	67.80%	52.87%
5.32%	1868	Republican	Grant	72.80%	52.66%
6.12%	1900	Republican	McKinley	65.32%	51.64%
8.53%	1908	Republican	Taft	66.46%	51.57%
4.33%	1896	Republican	McKinley	60.63%	51.03%
6.97%	1852	Democrat	Pierce	85.80%	50.84%
14.20%	1836	Democrat	Van Buren	57.80%	50.83%
9.74%	1980	Republican	Reagan	90.89%	50.75%
2.46%	2004	Republican	Bush(43)	53.20%	50.73%
2.06%	1976	Democrat	Carter	55.20%	50.08%
0.17%	1960	Democrat	Kennedy	56.42%	49.72%
4.48%	1948	Democrat	Truman	57.06%	49.55%
1.46%	1844	Democrat	Polk	61.80%	49.54%
3.12%	1916	Democrat	Wilson	52.17%	49.24%
8.51%	1996	Democrat	Clinton	70.45%	49.23%
0.25%	1884	Democrat	Cleveland(22)	54.60%	48.50%
0.02%	1880	Republican	Garfield	58.00%	48.27%
-3.02%	1876	Republican	Hayes	50.10%	47.95%
-0.51%	2000	Republican	Bush(43)	50.37%	47.87%
-0.80%	1888	Republican	Harrison(23)	58.10%	47.82%
4.79%	1848	Whig	Taylor	56.20%	47.28%
3.01%	1892	Democrat	Cleveland(24)	62.39%	46.02%
12.17%	1856	Democrat	Buchanan	58.80%	45.28%
0.70%	1968	Republican	Nixon	55.95%	43.42%
5.56%	1992	Democrat	Clinton	68.77%	43.01%
14.44%	1912	Democrat	Wilson	81.92%	41.84%
21.72%	1860	Republican	Lincoln	59.40%	39.82%
-10.43%	1824	Dem-Reps	Adams(6)	32.20%	30.92%

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